Author Topic: Framing, Clutch, and Wieters skills  (Read 460 times)

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Online mitlen

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Framing, Clutch, and Wieters skills
« Topic Start: August 05, 2017, 02:00:36 PM »
Putting that allegation aside, rumours abound that he is a prick nobody wants to pitch to.  And you don't need to prove that in a court of law to make a decision.

Wieters isn't wowing with the glove or the bat, but Gio González adores him, and as long as that guy has mojo I'm wondering what intangibles he provides.  Maybe he is an excellent pitch selector?  Counsellor?  I don't even know.

Listening to a show (radio/tv) this morning and they were talking about Wieters.     Said his batting approach is lacking.    He's over 30, 6'5" and been catching for over 20 years.    He loves callin' the high fastball but the boy can play the game.   As you mention, if he can keep Gio in the head game  ....  I'm in.

Offline Mattionals

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Re: Re: Re: Nationals trade for ... Derek Norris
« Reply #1: August 07, 2017, 12:13:38 AM »
Framing is dumb. It's basically hinges on if the umpire is stupid enough to watch the catchers glove than to track the ball for balls and strikes. I know this job isn't easy, but rating a catcher on how well he fools an ump or presents a pitch to a fallible fleshy meatbag is dumb.

Wieters was the best fit for a Dusty led team because Wieters actually calls his own game instead of having the dugout call it for him. I wish his bat would improve, but his game calling and live ball defense is solid. Never do I feel that he will drop a throw from the outfield, and he sets himself up for tags to be effective and not blow out his knees.

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Re: Re: Nationals trade for ... Derek Norris
« Reply #2: August 07, 2017, 07:36:54 AM »
Framing is dumb. It's basically hinges on if the umpire is stupid enough to watch the catchers glove than to track the ball for balls and strikes. I know this job isn't easy, but rating a catcher on how well he fools an ump or presents a pitch to a fallible fleshy meatbag is dumb.

Wieters was the best fit for a Dusty led team because Wieters actually calls his own game instead of having the dugout call it for him. I wish his bat would improve, but his game calling and live ball defense is solid. Never do I feel that he will drop a throw from the outfield, and he sets himself up for tags to be effective and not blow out his knees.
Agree on Wieters generally. Seems like the pitchers like throwing to him and that he calls good games. The whole pitch framing thing is suspect to me. We know umpires miss lots of ball and strike calls. His hitting is disappointing but he has come up with some big hits. Maybe he will have a better stretch run.

Offline tomterp

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Re: Re: Re: Nationals trade for ... Derek Norris
« Reply #3: August 07, 2017, 08:27:25 AM »
Framing is dumb. It's basically hinges on if the umpire is stupid enough to watch the catchers glove than to track the ball for balls and strikes. I know this job isn't easy, but rating a catcher on how well he fools an ump or presents a pitch to a fallible fleshy meatbag is dumb.



It seems a bit immoral but it's real and the more strikes you "steal" the better off your team is.  Once upon a time walks and HBP were discarded as being meaningful contributory stats too. 

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Re: Re: Nationals trade for ... Derek Norris
« Reply #4: August 07, 2017, 08:29:10 AM »
It seems a bit immoral but it's real and the more strikes you "steal" the better off your team is.  Once upon a time walks and HBP were discarded as being meaningful contributory stats too.
How can they distinguish between what are just bad calls by the umps versus framing by the catcher. Or just giving the pitcher the benefit of the doubt. Or not. So many variables.

Offline tomterp

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Re: Re: Re: Nationals trade for ... Derek Norris
« Reply #5: August 07, 2017, 08:44:26 AM »
How can they distinguish between what are just bad calls by the umps versus framing by the catcher. Or just giving the pitcher the benefit of the doubt. Or not. So many variables.

Simple, you just apply the Regressed Probabilistic Model    :P , and presto.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22934

Quote
Introduction
The mechanics of framing pitches are simple enough to explain: Quiet, mechanically sound catchers with a knack for good receiving help their pitchers by getting favorable calls from the home plate umpire. This effect has been known ever since umpires started calling balls and strikes. Although it wasn't always called framing, it has long been a source of speculation and commentary about prominent catchers.

Since the beginning of the PITCHf/x era, researchers have calculated framing in several different ways. We are presenting a new method that we will call the "Regressed Probabilistic Model" of framing (RPM for short). In brief, RPM works by calculating the combined probability (and associated run value) that each pitch will be called a strike; summing those probabilities (and run values) across opportunities; attributing those values to a player (catcher or pitcher); and regressing "career" values to the mean.

We will freely admit: If you haven't seen the results of previous framing studies, it can be tough to wrap your mind around the size of the impact of a good or bad framing catcher. These effect sizes are not out of line with what has been reported in the past, but they're still obscenely large. Everyone agrees that Mike Trout was either a deserving MVP or a deserving runner-up in each of the past two seasons, which the stats say were worth close to 10 wins apiece. Our data suggest that over the past five years, the teams that have employed good framers like Jonathan Lucroy, Brian McCann, and Jose Molina have received essentially "free" MVP-caliber seasons from framing alone. (Each of those catchers has been worth about two extra wins per season over that span). This is a staggering amount of value. Add in the fact that these wins are almost assuredly not properly priced into the free agent market, and the difference between having a good framing catcher or a bad framing catcher can make or break a cost-conscious team.

Lots of other articles on framing here:   http://www.baseballprospectus.com/search/index.php?search_query=Framing&search_author=&search_article=&search_month_1=01&search_year_1=1996&search_month_2=12&search_year_2=2017&sort_by=relevance&search_max=0&submit=Search+Archives


And the catcher stats themselves.  Washington 23rd in baseball at the position in the combined "Fielding Runs Above Average" at -7.3 runs.  Dodgers first at +22.6 runs, so a 30 run difference between the 2 teams.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1990027

Offline bluestreak

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Re: Re: Re: Nationals trade for ... Derek Norris
« Reply #6: August 07, 2017, 08:55:28 AM »
This is why we need robots to call balls and strikes.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Re: Re: Nationals trade for ... Derek Norris
« Reply #7: August 07, 2017, 09:10:15 AM »
I think of catcher framing like hitting with runners in scoring position. It's not necessarily a skill that is 100% predictive going forward, but it absolutely should be recognized as having value for an individual season. Stealing a ton of strikes and hitting .400 with runners in scoring position both have enormous value for your team in terms of preventing or creating runs. But maybe neither is a repeatable skill in following seasons.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Re: Re: Nationals trade for ... Derek Norris
« Reply #8: August 07, 2017, 09:20:47 AM »
FP talks quite a bit about Wieters ability to deliver big RBI.  I figured this would show up in some win probability stats and leverage details, figuring if this were true, you'd see big positive WPA and maybe above-average "clutch" performance as measured in fangraphs data.  Well, he does have a positive WPA, .57 (just like the steak sauce), with WPA+ (think of contribution to win) of 5.47 and WPA- (think of killing chances to win) of -4.90.  He also has a "clutch" score of 1.59, which is better than context-neutral.  For comparison, he's 8th on the team among hitters in WPA, behind the 3-6 hitters (Harper 4.35, the others between 2.11 and 2.3, still Eaton 5th (.86), and in a pack with Taylor and Lind (between .62 and .57).  No one else is close.  5th in WPA+.  Clutch, there are 10 positives, but the next highest is Eaton at .29.  This is using 60 PA as a sort to get all of the position players with significant time.

That clutch figure sort of stood out, so I want to compare to MLB.  Using a 300 PA sort, Wieters is 4th in all of MLB, behind Pujols (1.92), Arenado (1.91), and . . . Robbie Grossman (1.79, which no doubt please MDS greatly). 

I'm thinking it is relatively easier for a below average hitter to pile up a high clutch score if he happens to collect a lot of RBI, but I really would not call Arenado (and Grossman) bad hitters.  Pujols is not having a good year, but is piling up RBI (his slash line is similar to Wieters).  Pujols and Wieters do well because relative to their normal mediocrity, they seem to deliver more than you would expect.  In comparison, Harper is excellent, so there is a high expectation for success when he's up, and if he just delivers normally, he'll do in adding WPA (4.35, with a large gap to the 2d best) but not so much on clutch (where he's only 0.03).

The funny thing about Wieters and clutch is that he's had high clutch scores 3 years in a row.  Probably a vestige of being given lots of late RBI opportunities.

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Re: Framing, Clutch, and Wieters skills
« Reply #9: August 07, 2017, 09:30:39 AM »
This is why we need robots to call balls and strikes.

This a thousand times. Home plate umpires are the worst officials in sports and they impact the game to an incredible degree. They make some games unwatchable.

Online Baseball is Life

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Re: Framing, Clutch, and Wieters skills
« Reply #10: August 07, 2017, 09:31:44 AM »
FP talks quite a bit about Wieters ability to deliver big RBI.  I figured this would show up in some win probability stats and leverage details, figuring if this were true, you'd see big positive WPA and maybe above-average "clutch" performance as measured in fangraphs data.  Well, he does have a positive WPA, .57 (just like the steak sauce), with WPA+ (think of contribution to win) of 5.47 and WPA- (think of killing chances to win) of -4.90.  He also has a "clutch" score of 1.59, which is better than context-neutral.  For comparison, he's 8th on the team among hitters in WPA, behind the 3-6 hitters (Harper 4.35, the others between 2.11 and 2.3, still Eaton 5th (.86), and in a pack with Taylor and Lind (between .62 and .57).  No one else is close.  5th in WPA+.  Clutch, there are 10 positives, but the next highest is Eaton at .29.  This is using 60 PA as a sort to get all of the position players with significant time.

That clutch figure sort of stood out, so I want to compare to MLB.  Using a 300 PA sort, Wieters is 4th in all of MLB, behind Pujols (1.92), Arenado (1.91), and . . . Robbie Grossman (1.79, which no doubt please MDS greatly). 

I'm thinking it is relatively easier for a below average hitter to pile up a high clutch score if he happens to collect a lot of RBI, but I really would not call Arenado (and Grossman) bad hitters.  Pujols is not having a good year, but is piling up RBI (his slash line is similar to Wieters).  Pujols and Wieters do well because relative to their normal mediocrity, they seem to deliver more than you would expect.  In comparison, Harper is excellent, so there is a high expectation for success when he's up, and if he just delivers normally, he'll do in adding WPA (4.35, with a large gap to the 2d best) but not so much on clutch (where he's only 0.03).

The funny thing about Wieters and clutch is that he's had high clutch scores 3 years in a row.  Probably a vestige of being given lots of late RBI opportunities.

I got the part about steak sauce, at least. :mg:

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Framing, Clutch, and Wieters skills
« Reply #11: August 07, 2017, 09:36:09 AM »
I got the part about steak sauce, at least. :mg:
meat is good.  WPA is a way of trying to measure contributions to wins in context (win probability added), and clutch here is stepping up as a hitter when it is a big moment relative to a normal one.

Offline tomterp

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Re: Framing, Clutch, and Wieters skills
« Reply #12: August 07, 2017, 09:47:49 AM »
meat is good.  WPA is a way of trying to measure contributions to wins in context (win probability added), and clutch here is stepping up as a hitter when it is a big moment relative to a normal one.

WPA was also an especially salty poster who reveled in  :poke: her main antogonist, Spider.   

Offline spidernat

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Re: Framing, Clutch, and Wieters skills
« Reply #13: August 07, 2017, 09:55:21 AM »
WPA was also an especially salty poster who reveled in  :poke: her main antogonist, Spider.   



:hysterical:


I miss her. There would come a time when she'd had enough of me and would attempt to put me in my place. The last time I talked to her she was doing well.

Offline tomterp

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Re: Framing, Clutch, and Wieters skills
« Reply #14: August 07, 2017, 10:12:27 AM »


:hysterical:


I miss her. There would come a time when she'd had enough of me and would attempt to put me in my place. The last time I talked to her she was doing well.

 :hysterical:

Offline Optics

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Re: Framing, Clutch, and Wieters skills
« Reply #15: August 07, 2017, 01:04:15 PM »
Weits does seem to come through in the clutch at a pretty decent rate. I can live with his bat, most teams don't get much offense from C and we already have an amazing 3-6 in the lineup(and the 1-2 will improve once Werth/Taylor/Turner get back).

Offline mimontero88

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Re: Framing, Clutch, and Wieters skills
« Reply #16: August 07, 2017, 05:24:23 PM »
Weits does seem to come through in the clutch at a pretty decent rate. I can live with his bat, most teams don't get much offense from C and we already have an amazing 3-6 in the lineup(and the 1-2 will improve once Werth/Taylor/Turner get back).
Not sure Werth is really an upgrade over Kendrick in the 2 hole because Kendrick hits for higher average, which is really what you're looking for in that spot.  Agree with the rest though.

Offline Minty Fresh

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Re: Framing, Clutch, and Wieters skills
« Reply #17: August 08, 2017, 07:29:38 AM »
Framing is dumb. It's basically hinges on if the umpire is stupid enough to watch the catchers glove than to track the ball for balls and strikes. I know this job isn't easy, but rating a catcher on how well he fools an ump or presents a pitch to a fallible fleshy meatbag is dumb.

Patently false.

Offline Minty Fresh

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Re: Framing, Clutch, and Wieters skills
« Reply #18: August 08, 2017, 07:30:50 AM »
This is why we need robots to call balls and strikes.

Why stop there?  Just get robots to play the game too.



:?

Offline Slateman

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Re: Framing, Clutch, and Wieters skills
« Reply #19: August 08, 2017, 07:46:57 AM »
Why stop there?  Just get robots to play the game too.



:?
Big difference. The rules of a game should not change based on a human's perception of an imaginary playing area.