Strasburg compared to the top aces

[mimontero88]

If any of the pitchers talked about in this tread maintain what they're doing well into their 30s, they will all have the potential to be in the GOAT conversation. Calling someone with Kershaw's post season record GOAT is like justifying Karl Malone's MVP

If every pitcher talked about in this thread exactly maintains their career numbers, Kershaw will be, far and away, the best pitcher of this era.  A pitcher's job is to not allow runs.  Kershaw has done that better than anyone in not just this era, but the entire live ball era to date.

[Minty Fresh]

Schilling racked up his career WAR in 20 seasons.  What you're actually saying there is that Kershaw is on pace to blow Schilling's doors off.

And he's also one torn labram away from never getting there.

Why not let his career play out?

Kershaw is easily one of the greatest of all time and, frankly, is in the conversation for the GOAT.

I mean, why should we leave premature, sweeping, declarative claims to Kate Upton's hotness 10 years from now?

[mimontero88]

sure, but longevity matters, and he's not there yet. 10 years of greatness not coupled to post season success isn't an all time great

Unless you are projecting that Kershaw will drop off some massive cliff (which is technically possible but highly unlikely), I think he can manage the 2.0 WAR per season over the next 10.5 seasons that he needs to match Schilling.  I mean, you are technically correct that he hasn't achieved that longevity yet but you're giving no consideration to the relative likelihoods of the scenarios where he continues to pitch well and doesn't continue to pitch well.  One seems far more likely.

[mimontero88]

And he's also one torn labram away from never getting there.

Why not let his career play out?

I mean, why should we leave premature, sweeping, declarative claims to Kate Upton's hotness 10 years from now?

Your last sentence betrays your true intentions with this post

[hotshot]

14 K's in debut game vs. Pittsburgh. I was there and it was the most "electric" game I attended until game 5 in '12.

Missed Stras's opener but I was present on June 20, 1971 when Pete Broberg debuted for the Senators. Even more impressively than Stras, he went straight to the majors, no minor league ball at all. I forget who the opponents were but he did pretty well. Tired in the middle innings (hot day) after impressing early.

As for Stras, three years ago I would've said I was disappointed (high bar). After last season and this one, feel much more positive about him.

[HalfSmokes]

Unless you are projecting that Kershaw will drop off some massive cliff (which is technically possible but highly unlikely), I think he can manage the 2.0 WAR per season over the next 10.5 seasons that he needs to match Schilling.  I mean, you are technically correct that he hasn't achieved that longevity yet but you're giving no consideration to the relative likelihoods of the scenarios where he continues to pitch well and doesn't continue to pitch well.  One seems far more likely.

You're the one who replied to me saying they don't have the longevity yet to be all time greats with Kershaw as an example. To me he's currently a hall of famer, but he's not an all time great yet. I think the odds that Scherzer, Sale, Strasburg, and Kershaw all have long careers sustaining something near their current levels are pretty low, but if it happens, we're probably watching one of the greatest groups of pitchers ever

[varoadking]

Can I buy drugs from you?

HalfSmokes is the Bizarro world Slateman...

[mimontero88]

You're the one who replied to me saying they don't have the longevity yet to be all time greats with Kershaw as an example. To me he's currently a hall of famer, but he's not an all time great yet. I think the odds that Scherzer, Sale, Strasburg, and Kershaw all have long careers sustaining something near their current levels are pretty low, but if it happens, we're probably watching one of the greatest groups of pitchers ever

I never said anything about longevity.  You said Strasburg could be considered the best of this era if he keeps it up.  I pointed out that Kershaw has a career 2.35 ERA to this point so that assertion was highly unlikely.  You can't say Kershaw could fall off a cliff and then just assume Strasburg won't.  If anything, Strasburg should be considered the more injury-prone player so it's more likely that Kershaw sustains his success than it is that Strasburg sustains his.

[Natsinpwc]

Are we picking up Kate Upton? What position will she play?

[varoadking]

Are we picking up Kate Upton? What position will she play?

Catcher...

[Natsinpwc]

Catcher...

Sounds right.

[HalfSmokes]

I never said anything about longevity.  You said Strasburg could be considered the best of this era if he keeps it up.  I pointed out that Kershaw has a career 2.35 ERA to this point so that assertion was highly unlikely.  You can't say Kershaw could fall off a cliff and then just assume Strasburg won't.  If anything, Strasburg should be considered the more injury-prone player so it's more likely that Kershaw sustains his success than it is that Strasburg sustains his.

I said if Strasburg manages to outlast them or have a longer peak- if those happen, he'll likely end up with better numbers

[mimontero88]

I said if Strasburg manages to outlast them or have a longer peak- if those happen, he'll likely end up with better numbers

Okay, so in the very likely scenario where Strasburg and his peak outlast Kershaw, Bumgarner, Sale, Scherzer, and several other names I'm sure I'm leaving out, yeah, he could be the best.  But you can say that about literally anything and now you've made no point whatsoever.  If Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, and several others all get injured next season, Alex Smith will be the best quarterback in the NFL in 2017.  Do you see the problem with what you're saying?

[UMDNats]

Catcher...

[HalfSmokes]

Okay, so in the very likely scenario where Strasburg and his peak outlast Kershaw, Bumgarner, Sale, Scherzer, and several other names I'm sure I'm leaving out, yeah, he could be the best.  But you can say that about literally anything and now you've made no point whatsoever.  If Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, and several others all get injured next season, Alex Smith will be the best quarterback in the NFL in 2017.  Do you see the problem with what you're saying?

So Strasburg is the Alex Smith of active pitchers? You really think Strasburg is in the bottom half of active pitchers. The guy who's currently 5th amongst active starters in ERA (I wonder how he'll ever catch Scherzer) is comparable Alex Smith as a quarterback

[mimontero88]

So Strasburg is the Alex Smith of active pitchers? You really think Strasburg is in the bottom half of active pitchers. The guy who's currently 5th amongst active starters in ERA (I wonder how he'll ever catch Scherzer) is comparable Alex Smith as a quarterback

I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt that you missed my point entirely on this one.  The point was that you can make any athlete the best simply by assuming the elimination of all of their competition.

[spidernat]

As a more serious response, Kershaw's career 2.35 ERA is the lowest among starters in the live ball era and it's not even close.  To find the next guy you have to go all the way to Whitey Ford, whose career ERA was 2.75.

  I didn't realize that.

[mimontero88]

  I didn't realize that.

Yeah I was pretty shocked when I learned that too.  I mean I knew Kershaw was on an all-time great pace but I had no idea it was THAT all-time great.  It almost doesn't seem possible.

[NJ Ave]

What a hilarious thread. Strasburg is 3 months younger than Kershaw and has 30 less WAR, yet HS is arguing that Kershaw *isn't* an all-time great yet and Strasburg still could be the best of his era with a few more peak seasons?

Considering Strasburg's highest WAR seasons are 4.5 and 4.0 while Kershaw's are 8.6 and 7.6, I guess maybe if Kershaw got injured tomorrow and Strasburg had about 8 more *peak* seasons, then....he'd still just be David Wells, who also only had one season over 4.5 WAR his entire career.

He'd still be nowhere close to Kershaw, who is one of the greatest pitchers of all time. Kershaw has the 8th highest WAR through his age-29 season of any pitcher in HISTORY, just ahead of Pedro Martinez. And he could easily pass Roger Clemens for 5th place on that list by season's end.

[HalfSmokes]

I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt that you missed my point entirely on this one.  The point was that you can make any athlete the best simply by assuming the elimination of all of their competition.

he's one of the top 5 or so best pitchers under 30 and the numbers are closer enough between all of them that whoever has the most longevity is probably going to go down as one of the best ever. The 10-15% chance that it ends up being strasburg is pretty decent

[bluestreak]

Clayton Kershaw became a first ballot Hall of Famer when he pitched his first pitch this year, giving him the required 10 seasons. Everything else he does just determines how inner circle HOF he ends up being and if he is the greatest pitcher of all time. Strasburg, while a great pitcher, would have to buy a ticket to get into the Hall of fame.

For those who like advanced stats

Kershaw is all time leader in ERA+ at 160, Pedro is next at 154, followed by some 19th century guy at 150, Lefty Grove at 148 and Walter Johnson at 147. 

[NJ Ave]

he's one of the top 5 or so best pitchers under 30 and the numbers are closer enough between all of them that whoever has the most longevity is probably going to go down as one of the best ever. The 10-15% chance that it ends up being strasburg is pretty decent

1. Strasburg has 26 WAR, Kershaw has 57.
2. Strasburg ranks 128th on the list of career WAR through his age-28 season among pitchers. It's not exactly like he was a "late bloomer" - he was maybe the most hyped pitcher of all time.
3. To be a top-25 all-time pitcher, Strasburg needs about 75 WAR, or about 50 WAR more. There are only 20 pitchers in history who have put up 50 WAR starting in the age-29 season.

Quite simply, it's a homer argument. Perhaps the MOST homer of arguments. If you put up simple WAR totals, Strasburg's career is far more similar to Gio Gonzalez than Clayton Kershaw. Now you may say, "that's just because he hasn't been healthy, his ratios are great" but the answer to that is, health is a skill for pitchers.

[NJ Ave]

Kershaw, for example, needs like 3 more good seasons, or two more peak seasons, and he'll already be in the top 25 pitchers of all time by WAR. Strasburg needs to TRIPLE his current WAR.

[mimontero88]

he's one of the top 5 or so best pitchers under 30 and the numbers are closer enough between all of them that whoever has the most longevity is probably going to go down as one of the best ever. The 10-15% chance that it ends up being strasburg is pretty decent

The numbers are close enough?  What numbers are you looking at?  Strasburg's career ERA is more than a full run higher than Kershaw's.  WHIP?  Kershaw is below 1.000 for his career.  FIP?  Now we're down to a 0.30 difference in favor of Kershaw but Strasburg has significantly underperformed his FIP for several straight seasons.  ERA+?  Not even close.  Ditto for WAR, which you keep pointing to.  I mean, honestly just read what NJ Ave posted in those last two posts.  Kershaw and Strasburg aren't even on the same planet.  That's no disrespect to Strasburg.  He's a good pitcher and we should be happy to have him.  But only one of those two guys can be mentioned in the same sentence as Nolan Ryan by a rational human being and it ain't Stras.

[Elvir Ovcina]

I'm a little busy to read this thread closely, but is someone seriously attempting to argue that there's any remotely plausible scenario that does not involve Kershaw's career ending within the next two years in which Strasburg comes out with the better career? 

Strasburg has barely ever pitched a full season, and he's never pitched a full season with an ERA under 3.  Kershaw has one career season with an ERA over 3 - the 21 starts plus one relief appearance he made as a 20-year-old.   Think of it this way: Strasburg's best full season of his career so far would be comfortably Kershaw's worst season since being a rookie.