Author Topic: Strasburg compared to the top aces  (Read 1440 times)

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Offline mimontero88

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Re: Strasburg compared to the top aces
« Reply #50: July 18, 2017, 03:44:26 PM »
I'm a little busy to read this thread closely, but is someone seriously attempting to argue that there's any remotely plausible scenario that does not involve Kershaw's career ending within the next two years in which Strasburg comes out with the better career? 

Strasburg has barely ever pitched a full season, and he's never pitched a full season with an ERA under 3.  Kershaw has one career season with an ERA over 3 - the 21 starts plus one relief appearance he made as a 20-year-old.   Think of it this way: Strasburg's best full season of his career so far would be comfortably Kershaw's worst season since being a rookie. 
Even if Kershaw's arm falls off in two years, it's hard to imagine Strasburg having the better career though it is technically possible I suppose.

Online dracnal

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Re: Strasburg compared to the top aces
« Reply #51: July 18, 2017, 03:54:22 PM »
Out of curiosity, is there a stat that measures difficulty of the opponent you faced when you earned the pitching numbers? Like let's say if you had 25 starts in a season against the absolute bottom feeders and someone else on your team got 25 starts against the best teams in baseball.

I'm guessing WAR doesn't measure how much of a differential there is between your BAA and the opposing team's BA, or your WHIP vs the team OBP. Having a .197BAA vs a team BA of .225 should theoretically be less impressive than a .230 vs a team .270. (Those numbers being of course entirely arbitrary and pulled from thin air; I haven't paid attention to team BA so really don't have an accurate sample bracket).

My point is that I certainly don't argue Kershaw is an amazing picture and Strasburg has merely be a very good pitcher, but is there a stat to quantify the differences?


Offline mimontero88

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Re: Strasburg compared to the top aces
« Reply #52: July 18, 2017, 03:58:30 PM »
Out of curiosity, is there a stat that measures difficulty of the opponent you faced when you earned the pitching numbers? Like let's say if you had 25 starts in a season against the absolute bottom feeders and someone else on your team got 25 starts against the best teams in baseball.

I'm guessing WAR doesn't measure how much of a differential there is between your BAA and the opposing team's BA, or your WHIP vs the team OBP. Having a .197BAA vs a team BA of .225 should theoretically be less impressive than a .230 vs a team .270. (Those numbers being of course entirely arbitrary and pulled from thin air; I haven't paid attention to team BA so really don't have an accurate sample bracket).

My point is that I certainly don't argue Kershaw is an amazing picture and Strasburg has merely be a very good pitcher, but is there a stat to quantify the differences?


To be honest, I'm not 100% sure but I believe strength of opponent does not factor into WAR.  However, given the length of time we are talking about and how strong the NL West has been over time (3 World Series championships for the Giants, Rockies and D-backs teams that have always had good offense and that doesn't even mention he pitches 2-3 times at Coors Field every year) I think it's safe to say that, if anything, Kershaw has had tougher competition than Strasburg.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Strasburg compared to the top aces
« Reply #53: July 18, 2017, 04:05:18 PM »
Even if Kershaw's arm falls off in two years, it's hard to imagine Strasburg having the better career though it is technically possible I suppose.

That's true.  If Kershaw were to pitch this year, one more, and then die, his numbers likely would be right about on par with Sandy Koufax for most metrics (who also ended his career after his age-30 season).  That's insane.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Strasburg compared to the top aces
« Reply #54: July 18, 2017, 08:15:30 PM »
As a more serious response, Kershaw's career 2.35 ERA is the lowest among starters in the live ball era and it's not even close.  To find the next guy you have to go all the way to Whitey Ford, whose career ERA was 2.75.  Kershaw is easily one of the greatest of all time and, frankly, is in the conversation for the GOAT.  No other pitcher today can make that claim.
got to adjust for the run scoring environment.  ERA- and FIP-.  Pedro is close but Kershaw has him beat.  Closest recent pitcher?  Jose Fernandez :(

Offline mdnatsfan

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Re: Strasburg compared to the top aces
« Reply #55: July 18, 2017, 10:14:01 PM »
I think Steven doesn't have to be better than Kershaw or Bum or even top 5 or even 10 of his cohort to justify his draft position. Clearly he is in the top of his cohort. Exactly where? No matter.

Re: Strasburg compared to the top aces
« Reply #56: July 19, 2017, 01:43:43 AM »
I think Steven doesn't have to be better than Kershaw or Bum or even top 5 or even 10 of his cohort to justify his draft position. Clearly he is in the top of his cohort. Exactly where? No matter.

Absolutely.  You would take a Strasburg everytime at #1.  The MLB draft is a crapshoot.  Look bacl at how many 1st rounders are busts.