Author Topic: Strasburg compared to the top aces  (Read 1448 times)

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Strasburg compared to the top aces
« Topic Start: July 18, 2017, 04:25:42 AM »
I realize Stras is very good (when healthy) and the hype he came up with made expectations almost unattainable.  The pitcher he turned out to be is a top 15 starting pitcher in baseball.  He's sometimes dominant, often good, and sometimes bad.  Still, I thought the guy I saw in the debut 13 K game was going to be like Max, Kershaw, Sale, and Mad Bum.  I don't criticize or blame Stras for "only" being the elite guy he is, but why do you think he's not at that even higher level?  He's healthy.  His mental approach is much improved.  The stuff is what he always had.  Why do you guys think it doesn't translate to even more?  Just curious because it's hard to figure out.  Again, what he is I'm more than pleased with.

Offline awbb

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Re: Strasburg compared to the top aces
« Reply #1: July 18, 2017, 06:44:10 AM »
I reckon it's fine margins, a couple of % points at best, things like:

He could probably be a bit more efficient with pitch totals (currently at 16.24 pitches per inning this season (up to AS break). Max is at 15.11. Kershaw at 14.41. Sale at 15.43).

He possibly doesn't get quite enough whiffs on pitches that aren't his change-up (be it out of the zone or not) and he could do with people swinging a little bit more at his change-up too.

As per Brooksbaseball.net:

Stras in 2017 - throws his fastball 53.06% of the time and batters whiff on it 9.82%
Stras in 2017 - throws his curve 23.53% of the time and batters whiff on it 12.90%
Stras in 2017 - throws his change 17.40% of the time and batters whiff on it 26.64%

Max in 2017 - throws his fastball 48.88% of the time and batters whiff on it 12.08%.
Max in 2017 - throws his slider 27.25% of the time and batters whiff on it 28.96%
Max in 2017 - throws his change 13.25% of the time and batters whiff on it 20.97%

Kershaw only really appears to have 1 "put away" pitch, with his slider and batters swing on that pitch 58% or thereabouts. Batters swing 52% on Stras' change-up.

As I say, this is all fine grained stuff that would turn him from a merely currently elite pitcher to an all-time great.

Happy to take on board that you can prove (or disprove) virtually everything with some stats! But those were my gut reactions that seemed to be born out by the figures I found.

Offline aspenbubba

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Re: Strasburg compared to the top aces
« Reply #2: July 18, 2017, 07:10:34 AM »
  Still, I thought the guy I saw in the debut 13 K game was going to be like Max, Kershaw, Sale, and Mad Bum. 
14 K's in debut game vs. Pittsburgh. I was there and it was the most "electric" game I attended until game 5 in '12.

Offline NatsAllThe Way

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Re: Strasburg compared to the top aces
« Reply #3: July 18, 2017, 07:14:28 AM »
I realize Stras is very good (when healthy) and the hype he came up with made expectations almost unattainable.  The pitcher he turned out to be is a top 15 starting pitcher in baseball.  He's sometimes dominant, often good, and sometimes bad.  Still, I thought the guy I saw in the debut 13 K game was going to be like Max, Kershaw, Sale, and Mad Bum.  I don't criticize or blame Stras for "only" being the elite guy he is, but why do you think he's not at that even higher level?  He's healthy.  His mental approach is much improved.  The stuff is what he always had.  Why do you guys think it doesn't translate to even more?  Just curious because it's hard to figure out.  Again, what he is I'm more than pleased with.
It's because he's pitching from the stretch.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

  • Posts: 1992
Re: Strasburg compared to the top aces
« Reply #4: July 18, 2017, 07:54:13 AM »
I realize Stras is very good (when healthy) and the hype he came up with made expectations almost unattainable.  The pitcher he turned out to be is a top 15 starting pitcher in baseball.  He's sometimes dominant, often good, and sometimes bad.  Still, I thought the guy I saw in the debut 13 K game was going to be like Max, Kershaw, Sale, and Mad Bum.  I don't criticize or blame Stras for "only" being the elite guy he is, but why do you think he's not at that even higher level?  He's healthy.  His mental approach is much improved.  The stuff is what he always had. Why do you guys think it doesn't translate to even more?  Just curious because it's hard to figure out.  Again, what he is I'm more than pleased with.

I don't think the stuff ever came 100% back after the surgery.  Close, but just not quite: not quite as much juice on the fastball and not quite as much run either. 

Offline awbb

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Re: Strasburg compared to the top aces
« Reply #5: July 18, 2017, 08:01:38 AM »
It's because he's pitching from the stretch.

I don't think it is that - his record this season is much the same as prior years with the wind-up.

Offline Count Walewski

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Re: Strasburg compared to the top aces
« Reply #6: July 18, 2017, 08:24:05 AM »
Seems like he's in a happy place right now and has been relieved of the burden of being the #1 pitcher due to Scherzer being around. I rarely even think about Strasburg anymore, he's just there every 5 days and usually pitches well. The heterochromatic eyes and mound rituals of Scherzer haunt my thoughts often, in contrast. 

Offline mdnatsfan

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Re: Strasburg compared to the top aces
« Reply #7: July 18, 2017, 08:27:46 AM »
This is Max's 10th season and he will turn 33 thus month. He has 2064 k's so far in 9.5 seasons. A career 3.29 era.

Steven is in his 7th season, should be 8th, and turns 29 this month and has 1223 k's so far and a 3.19.

Pitchers are like fine wine.... Who's better?

Offline Ray D

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Re: Strasburg compared to the top aces
« Reply #8: July 18, 2017, 09:18:46 AM »
It's because he's pitching from the stretch.
Uh uh.  Launch angle.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

  • Posts: 1992
Re: Strasburg compared to the top aces
« Reply #9: July 18, 2017, 09:22:22 AM »
This is Max's 10th season and he will turn 33 thus month. He has 2064 k's so far in 9.5 seasons. A career 3.29 era.

Steven is in his 7th season, should be 8th, and turns 29 this month and has 1223 k's so far and a 3.19.

Pitchers are like fine wine.... Who's better?

If Strasburg pitches like current Scherzer for the next four years, I won't care about the answer one bit.  That would be awesome.  For the career comparison, it's a tough call: Strasburg was immediately a very good pitcher upon arrival in MLB, but peak Scherzer is better than Strasburg. 

Offline NatsAllThe Way

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Re: Strasburg compared to the top aces
« Reply #10: July 18, 2017, 10:03:45 AM »
I don't think it is that - his record this season is much the same as prior years with the wind-up.

90% of my posts are not serious.  This one is though.

Offline imref

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Re: Strasburg compared to the top aces
« Reply #11: July 18, 2017, 10:25:05 AM »
he's seven years in, he is what he is, one of the top 10 starters in baseball, but not in the same discussion as Max, Sale, and Kershaw.  I don't think there's much to complain about.

Offline Truconfidence

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Re: Strasburg compared to the top aces
« Reply #12: July 18, 2017, 10:36:45 AM »
Stras said he is probably going back to the wind up next season.

Offline mimontero88

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Re: Strasburg compared to the top aces
« Reply #13: July 18, 2017, 11:19:55 AM »
If Strasburg pitches like current Scherzer for the next four years, I won't care about the answer one bit.  That would be awesome.  For the career comparison, it's a tough call: Strasburg was immediately a very good pitcher upon arrival in MLB, but peak Scherzer is better than Strasburg. 
In fairness, peak Scherzer has a lot of baseball people calling him the best in the game and that's with Clayton Kershaw and Chris Sale still pitching brilliantly in their primes.  Strasburg's ceiling as a prospect was "best pitcher in the game" so he hasn't hit that ceiling but he is definitely closer to that ceiling than he is to the floor and I think it's pretty unfair to not be happy with how he has turned out.  I feel good when I look at the lineup and see Strasburg in the 9 hole because I know he gives us a great chance to win every game he pitches.  Guys like that don't grow on trees.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

  • Posts: 1992
Re: Strasburg compared to the top aces
« Reply #14: July 18, 2017, 11:35:23 AM »
In fairness, peak Scherzer has a lot of baseball people calling him the best in the game and that's with Clayton Kershaw and Chris Sale still pitching brilliantly in their primes.  Strasburg's ceiling as a prospect was "best pitcher in the game" so he hasn't hit that ceiling but he is definitely closer to that ceiling than he is to the floor and I think it's pretty unfair to not be happy with how he has turned out.  I feel good when I look at the lineup and see Strasburg in the 9 hole because I know he gives us a great chance to win every game he pitches.  Guys like that don't grow on trees.

Yep.  Didn't mean to say anything that conflicts with this.  Peak Scherzer is one hell of a show, and I think Strasburg might have been that without the injury.  Being a notch down is hardly a bad thing.  He's an excellent pitcher.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Strasburg compared to the top aces
« Reply #15: July 18, 2017, 11:41:12 AM »
This is Max's 10th season and he will turn 33 thus month. He has 2064 k's so far in 9.5 seasons. A career 3.29 era.

Steven is in his 7th season, should be 8th, and turns 29 this month and has 1223 k's so far and a 3.19.

Pitchers are like fine wine.... Who's better?

longevity matters- none of these guys has pitched long enough to go down as all time greats now, if Strasburg manages to out last them by a few years, or keep his peak longer, I think he's likely to go down as the best of this era, of course, that's pretty unlikely.

Offline mimontero88

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Re: Strasburg compared to the top aces
« Reply #16: July 18, 2017, 11:43:23 AM »
longevity matters- none of these guys has pitched long enough to go down as all time greats now, if Strasburg manages to out last them by a few years, or keep his peak longer, I think he's likely to go down as the best of this era, of course, that's pretty unlikely.
Clayton Kershaw and his career 2.35 ERA in 10 seasons says hi.

Offline awbb

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Re: Strasburg compared to the top aces
« Reply #17: July 18, 2017, 11:49:26 AM »
I think everyone is in agreement then!

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Strasburg compared to the top aces
« Reply #18: July 18, 2017, 11:50:24 AM »
Clayton Kershaw and his career 2.35 ERA in 10 seasons says hi.

career WAR right around David Wells now, with mediocre post season numbers - not exactly an all time great yet

Offline mimontero88

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Re: Strasburg compared to the top aces
« Reply #19: July 18, 2017, 12:00:04 PM »
career WAR right around David Wells now, with mediocre post season numbers - not exactly an all time great yet
Can I buy drugs from you?

Offline mimontero88

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Re: Strasburg compared to the top aces
« Reply #20: July 18, 2017, 12:15:39 PM »
career WAR right around David Wells now, with mediocre post season numbers - not exactly an all time great yet
As a more serious response, Kershaw's career 2.35 ERA is the lowest among starters in the live ball era and it's not even close.  To find the next guy you have to go all the way to Whitey Ford, whose career ERA was 2.75.  Kershaw is easily one of the greatest of all time and, frankly, is in the conversation for the GOAT.  No other pitcher today can make that claim.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Strasburg compared to the top aces
« Reply #21: July 18, 2017, 12:20:28 PM »
Can I buy drugs from you?

:shrug: ten years isn't long enough to be an all time great yet- 57 cumulative war- that's about 20 wins shy of shilling. You could compare him to Koufax, but he's a few rings shy

Offline mimontero88

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Re: Strasburg compared to the top aces
« Reply #22: July 18, 2017, 12:22:03 PM »
:shrug: ten years isn't long enough to be an all time great yet- 57 cumulative war- that's about 20 wins shy of shilling. You could compare him to Koufax, but he's a few rings shy
Schilling racked up his career WAR in 20 seasons.  What you're actually saying there is that Kershaw is on pace to blow Schilling's doors off.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Strasburg compared to the top aces
« Reply #23: July 18, 2017, 12:23:10 PM »
As a more serious response, Kershaw's career 2.35 ERA is the lowest among starters in the live ball era and it's not even close.  To find the next guy you have to go all the way to Whitey Ford, whose career ERA was 2.75.  Kershaw is easily one of the greatest of all time and, frankly, is in the conversation for the GOAT.  No other pitcher today can make that claim.

If any of the pitchers talked about in this tread maintain what they're doing well into their 30s, they will all have the potential to be in the GOAT conversation. Calling someone with Kershaw's post season record GOAT is like justifying Karl Malone's MVP

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Strasburg compared to the top aces
« Reply #24: July 18, 2017, 12:24:45 PM »
Schilling racked up his career WAR in 20 seasons.  What you're actually saying there is that Kershaw is on pace to blow Schilling's doors off.

sure, but longevity matters, and he's not there yet. 10 years of greatness not coupled to post season success isn't an all time great