Apathetically awaiting the post season?

[bluestreak]

The post-season is not a crap shoot in baseball. The cream rises to the top. It's not a crap shoot that this team, with this core group, has failed three times in the postseason.

You keep saying this, but saying it repeatedly doesn’t make it true. Baseball is easily the most random postseason. It’s why even a historically good team like the Dodgers has only like a 28 percent chance. Lots of things can happen.

[Slateman]

Don't forget Rizzo and the Learners...

...and the fans...the fans have been brutal...

Plenty of blame to go around.

Certain players simply not performing in the playoffs, despite big contracts (or massive egos)
Coaches and managers making terrible decision
Rizzo, for not addressing the biggest issues on this team and continuing to go with players who have proven track records of suckage
Ownership, for being stupid with their money

[mitlen]

Boswell with a puff piece for all the naysayers...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/nationals/are-nationals-ready-for-october-who-cares-enjoy-the-daily-drama-they-are-now/2017/08/03/1cbf98ec-77bb-11e7-9eac-d56bd5568db8_story.html?utm_term=.155e3ea7d80e

This is where I quit reading:

Anyone who doesn’t love watching regular season Nationals games this year — whether they score 23 runs or hit five homers in one inning or win 1-0 with a near no-hitter by Gio Gonzalez on Monday night — just doesn’t get it.

[DPMOmaha]

This is where I quit reading:

Anyone who doesn’t love watching regular season Nationals games this year — whether they score 23 runs or hit five homers in one inning or win 1-0 with a near no-hitter by Gio Gonzalez on Monday night — just doesn’t get it.

Interesting. That's where it picked up for me.

[varoadking]

This is where I quit reading:

Anyone who doesn’t love watching regular season Nationals games this year — whether they score 23 runs or hit five homers in one inning or win 1-0 with a near no-hitter by Gio Gonzalez on Monday night — just doesn’t get it.

Yeah...another guy that thinks he's the smartest guy in the room...

The Learners must have primed him to help sell tickets...

[spidernat]

You keep saying this, but saying it repeatedly doesn’t make it true. Baseball is easily the most random postseason. It’s why even a historically good team like the Dodgers has only like a 28 percent chance. Lots of things can happen.

You keep saying this, but saying it repeatedly doesn’t make it true.

[Slateman]

You keep saying this, but saying it repeatedly doesn’t make it true. Baseball is easily the most random postseason. It’s why even a historically good team like the Dodgers has only like a 28 percent chance. Lots of things can happen.

It's not, but go ahead and believe that. Football has, by far, the most random postseason.

[Ali the Baseball Cat]

But...Coast Guard Night!!

I'm a little concerned about apathy on the resale market, only one home series in the last two months against a playoff team and no games of real consequences. Scherzer and Strasburg better come back or the park will be a quarter full in September.

[rbw5t]

It's not, but go ahead and believe that. Football has, by far, the most random postseason.

I totally disagree with this.  In football, the better team is much more likely to win a game than in baseball.  The idea of playing of series, versus just one game, mitigates that somewhat, but not entirely.  In baseball, an ok team can be hot at the right time and beat a much better team in a 5 or 7 game series.  Bad teams take series from good times ALL THE TIME in baseball.  It's not even notable.  In football, it's a big deal when a mediocre team beats a much better team, and it rarely happens in the playoffs.

[varoadking]

I totally disagree with this.  In football, the better team is much more likely to win a game than in baseball.  The idea of playing of series, versus just one game, mitigates that somewhat, but not entirely.  In baseball, an ok team can be hot at the right time and beat a much better team in a 5 or 7 game series.  Bad teams take series from good times ALL THE TIME in baseball.  It's not even notable.  In football, it's a big deal when a mediocre team beats a much better team, and it rarely happens in the playoffs.

I dunno...the Patriots have won a number of Super Bowls... 

[bluestreak]

It's not, but go ahead and believe that. Football has, by far, the most random postseason.

What are you basing this assertion on?

http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2013/09/undeserving-champions-examining-variance-in-the-postseason/

[varoadking]

What are you basing this assertion on?

http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2013/09/undeserving-champions-examining-variance-in-the-postseason/

Are you familiar with the term "Mindfact?"

[Count Walewski]

Watching baseball is a lot less stressful if the team has a huge division lead. I enjoy these late season games where I can enjoy the spectacle of live baseball and not have to worry about games back or ahead.

[Ray D]

It’s why even a historically good team like the Dodgers has only like a 28 percent chance.

19.1 percent right now.  https://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx 
Less than 1 in five.

[imref]

That quote sounds like something Randall "Tex" Cobb would say.

It's from Rocky Balboa (aka Rocky 6)

[Slateman]

What are you basing this assertion on?

http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2013/09/undeserving-champions-examining-variance-in-the-postseason/

Regular season success =/= post season success

But do you think that it's complete coincidence that the Giants have won 3 WS since 2012? Or that teams make important deadline deals that result in post season success? To say that the post season is a crapshoot is the height of naivete.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

It's not, but go ahead and believe that. Football has, by far, the most random postseason.

There are 3 parts of an NFL season: training camp (runs to early September), pre-season (goes to early January), and the Patriots Invitational.

[bluestreak]

Regular season success =/= post season success

But do you think that it's complete coincidence that the Giants have won 3 WS since 2012? Or that teams make important deadline deals that result in post season success? To say that the post season is a crapshoot is the height of naivete.

I’m saying no one has figured out how to predict postseason success. Not you, not anyone. That’s the definition of random. Every year at the deadline, people say how some team made the deal that will put them over the top. And every year, most of those teams lose. If you don’t think a large degree of luck is involved, you’re naive.

[Slateman]

There are 3 parts of an NFL season: training camp (runs to early September), pre-season (goes to early January), and the Patriots Invitational.

I’m saying no one has figured out how to predict postseason success. Not you, not anyone. That’s the definition of random. Every year at the deadline, people say how some team made the deal that will put them over the top. And every year, most of those teams lose. If you don’t think a large degree of luck is involved, you’re naive.

Okay, then  by that definition, every sport is random. That's an incredibly stupid statement, because what you're saying is that it doesn't matter what you do in the offseason or even at the deadline. That the Braves had a shot at the WS this year.

Luck is where preparation meets opportunity.

[bluestreak]

Now I think you’re being purposefully obtuse. Coming into the NBA season literally everyone could predict the outcome of the playoffs. Not Random. Coming into the NFL playoffs we knew the Patriots were likely to be successful. These are not random.
Of course things like preparation and moves matter. But even if you do everything you’re supposed to, there is still a 75 percent chance you won’t win it all. That wasn’t true for the Warriors. Or the Pats.
Preparation is necessary but not sufficient for postseason success. You need the ball to bounce your way. Much more than in other sports.

[varoadking]

Now I think you’re being purposefully obtuse.

You have arrived... 

[Ali the Baseball Cat]

"Please Uncle Slate, can you tell us the story about the little red engine that couldn't??"

Regular season success =/= post season success

[Slateman]

Now I think you’re being purposefully obtuse. Coming into the NBA season literally everyone could predict the outcome of the playoffs. Not Random. Coming into the NFL playoffs we knew the Patriots were likely to be successful. These are not random.
Of course things like preparation and moves matter. But even if you do everything you’re supposed to, there is still a 75 percent chance you won’t win it all. That wasn’t true for the Warriors. Or the Pats.
Preparation is necessary but not sufficient for postseason success. You need the ball to bounce your way. Much more than in other sports.

\

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/page/seasonpreview_mlbteampredictions/mlb-team-predictions-2016-season

So random almost half of the experts picked the correct WS champion at the beginning of the year. Yep, random.

You talk about preparation not sufficient? The Warriors literally lucked in to Kevin Durant. But they were prepared. They had cap space. And the NBA is the way it is because one or two players can dominate an entire game. Neither football nor baseball is like that.

Here's the NFL predicitons for the NFC last year: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000693407/article/2016-nfc-playoff-predictions-east-should-be-hotly-contested
One person had the Falcons getting a WC. One.

Hockey is far and away the most luck based sport. The puck literally bounces everywhere. Then football with its one game approach and weirdly shaped ball and odd scoring rules.

Success is not random.

[dlayman]

19.1 percent right now.  https://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx 
Less than 1 in five.

Interesting stuff.  Despite owning the third best record in baseball, and projected to remain there, the Nats have the lowest World Series Champion % of any division leader, and less than a 50% of making it out of the divisional series.  I know its all a guess,but its pretty depressing.

[bluestreak]

Interesting stuff.  Despite owning the third best record in baseball, and projected to remain there, the Nats have the lowest World Series Champion % of any division leader, and less than a 50% of making it out of the divisional series.  I know its all a guess,but its pretty depressing.

It’s because the Dodgers and Cubs are in the NL too. Along with good wild card teams. Given the Dodgers dominance I would have expected a higher percentage for them too. I imagine the presence of the Nats depresses that as well.