Poll

Have you become apathetic towards the regular season?

Yes
15 (31.9%)
No
32 (68.1%)

Total Members Voted: 47

Author Topic: Apathetically awaiting the post season?  (Read 7982 times)

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Offline Ray D

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Re: Apathetically awaiting the post season?
« Reply #200: August 12, 2017, 05:57:25 PM »
Home field doesn't mean jack in October
Maybe not in  terms of winning.  It means alot to me.  More game here mean more chances that I might be able to go to a game.

Offline Ray D

  • Posts: 10073
Re: Apathetically awaiting the post season?
« Reply #201: August 12, 2017, 05:59:55 PM »
Isn't homefield for the World Series going to the AL since they won the AS game, or did that change?
The better record (of the two teams) gets home field.  It's new this year, the new commissioner understood what a farce it was to base it on the all star game and unilaterally changed it.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Apathetically awaiting the post season?
« Reply #202: August 12, 2017, 06:03:00 PM »
Home field doesn't mean jack in October

Evidence?

Online Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 12871
Re: Apathetically awaiting the post season?
« Reply #203: August 12, 2017, 06:05:53 PM »
Evidence?
Seems to be true lately for the 5 game series ( and Wild card games) but not for the 7 game series.

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/204233542/home-field-advantage-mlb-playoffs-history


Offline Slateman

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  • thanosdidnothingwrong
Re: Apathetically awaiting the post season?
« Reply #204: August 12, 2017, 06:13:20 PM »
Seems to be true lately for the 5 game series ( and Wild card games) but not for the 7 game series.

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/204233542/home-field-advantage-mlb-playoffs-history


INteresting

I wouldn't mind starting on the road, provided that Strasburg is the number 2 starter.

Strasburg Home/Away splits: 4.13/2.37 ERA,  3.35/2.92 FIP,

Gio Home/Away splits: 1.95/3.15 ERA; 3.69/4.17 FIP;

Start Strasburg on the road and Gio at home.

Offline DPMOmaha

  • Posts: 22094
Re: Apathetically awaiting the post season?
« Reply #205: August 14, 2017, 09:29:45 AM »
Home field doesn't mean jack in October and we've actually been a better road than home team this year I believe(or at the very least, we're a damn good road team).

Also in all three of our playoff runs, we were better on the road then at home.
It's more important the deeper you go.

Offline HalfSmokes

  • Posts: 19634
Re: Apathetically awaiting the post season?
« Reply #206: August 14, 2017, 10:09:10 AM »
It's more important the deeper you go.

Does the math actually back that up? Seems like a toss up to me

Offline spidernat

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Re: Apathetically awaiting the post season?
« Reply #207: August 14, 2017, 10:13:21 AM »
Does the math actually back that up? Seems like a toss up to me



not a toss up, a "crapshoot"

Offline DPMOmaha

  • Posts: 22094
Re: Apathetically awaiting the post season?
« Reply #208: August 14, 2017, 10:38:47 AM »
Does the math actually back that up? Seems like a toss up to me
I've looked it up before and last time I did, the home team won more the further you went in the playoffs in MLB. I might have just been looking at games 5 (DS) and game 7s (CS, WS), so I might have to revisit that again, and last years results might impact it, too. I don't have time to go back and look all that up again right now.

Offline Ray D

  • Posts: 10073
Re: Apathetically awaiting the post season?
« Reply #209: August 14, 2017, 10:47:21 AM »
Quote
I might have just been looking at games 5 (DS) and game 7s (CS, WS), so I might have to revisit that again,

No, if the series doesn't go the full number of games then home field is moot.

Offline varoadking

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Re: Apathetically awaiting the post season?
« Reply #210: August 14, 2017, 10:52:45 AM »
No, if the series doesn't go the full number of games then home field is moot.

How do you figure?  If you win the DS in 3, you would have taken 2 of those games at home.  If you win the CS or WS in 5, you could have taken 3 of those games at home.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Apathetically awaiting the post season?
« Reply #211: August 14, 2017, 10:54:35 AM »
How do you figure?  If you win the DS in 3, you took 2 of those games at home.  If you win the CS or WS in 5, you took 3 of those games at home.

Seven game series in baseball are played in the 2-3-2 format. So, in order to get three home games, it would have to go a Game 6.

Couldn't care less about home field advantage any more.

Offline varoadking

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Re: Apathetically awaiting the post season?
« Reply #212: August 14, 2017, 10:56:21 AM »
Seven game series in baseball are played in the 2-3-2 format. So, in order to get three home games, it would have to go a Game 6.

Ah, right...but the DS holds true...

Online bluestreak

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Re: Apathetically awaiting the post season?
« Reply #213: August 14, 2017, 10:56:32 AM »
I've looked it up before and last time I did, the home team won more the further you went in the playoffs in MLB. I might have just been looking at games 5 (DS) and game 7s (CS, WS), so I might have to revisit that again, and last years results might impact it, too. I don't have time to go back and look all that up again right now.

 I wonder how much any analysis of home field is affected by the fact that the team that has home field typically is the superior team.
I would think looking at the WS, which before this year awarded home field based on non record criteria, and determining how much home field advantage affected what would have been expected based on the teams’ records would be the best way to go.

Offline DPMOmaha

  • Posts: 22094
Re: Apathetically awaiting the post season?
« Reply #214: August 14, 2017, 11:05:45 AM »
No, if the series doesn't go the full number of games then home field is moot.
I think it's more complicated than that.

Offline Ray D

  • Posts: 10073
Re: Apathetically awaiting the post season?
« Reply #215: August 14, 2017, 11:18:42 AM »
I think it's more complicated than that.
Home field advantage is an abstraction based on the hypothetical assumption that the home teams wins every game.  So for a five game series:  If it goes three games then the home team didn't win every game.  If it goes four games, similarly. If it goes five games, then the home team in game five has the advantage.  Same calculation for a seven game series.

Offline DPMOmaha

  • Posts: 22094
Re: Apathetically awaiting the post season?
« Reply #216: August 14, 2017, 11:21:03 AM »
Home field advantage is an abstraction based on the hypothetical assumption that the home teams wins every game.  So for a five game series:  If it goes three games then the home team didn't win every game.  If it goes four games, similarly. If it goes five games, then the home team in game five has the advantage.  Same calculation for a seven game series.
I understand the theory, thanks.

And I don't think the hypothetical assumption is that the home team wins every game. It's that it's theoretically easier for them to win at home vs. on the road. To what degree that is true, is where it gets complicated.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Apathetically awaiting the post season?
« Reply #217: August 14, 2017, 11:31:24 AM »
Home field advantage is an abstraction based on the hypothetical assumption that the home teams wins every game.  So for a five game series:  If it goes three games then the home team didn't win every game.  If it goes four games, similarly. If it goes five games, then the home team in game five has the advantage.  Same calculation for a seven game series.
No, it isn't.

Home field advantage is the theory that you have an advantage playing at home. It's usually backed up by statistics like home/away record and statistical splits.

In a five game series, if the series goes three games, then one team won all of the games, therefore, it's possible that the home team won every game.

Offline Ray D

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Re: Apathetically awaiting the post season?
« Reply #218: August 14, 2017, 01:55:28 PM »
Ok for those who don’t like abstractions, here is a simple concrete illustration.

TeamA plays TeamB, five game series. Their home fields are FieldA and FieldB. 

TeamA odds of winning any particular game (according to Las Vegas) are 35% if played at FieldA and 25% at FieldB. (Nevermind that there can be different odds for different games, for example for different starters;  you just have to come up with a more complex equation but the conclusion will be the same. This is simplification without loss of generalization.)  If home field is to be FieldA for games 1, 2, and 5 (if necessary), then TeamA has home field advantage (even though TeamB is favored overall). If they are to be played at FieldB then TeamB has home field advantage.

If the odds of TeamA winning any particular game (according to Vegas) is 35% no matter whether at FieldA or FieldB, then there is no home field advantage, for either team, no matter where played.

Let’s say the odds for TeamA are 25% for games at FieldA and 35% at FieldB and games 1 ,2, and 5 (if necessary) are to be played at FieldA.  Then TeamA has a home field DISadvantage.

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Apathetically awaiting the post season?
« Reply #219: August 14, 2017, 04:59:04 PM »
Looking forward to the Houston series next week.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Apathetically awaiting the post season?
« Reply #220: October 06, 2017, 06:50:11 PM »
I surprised myself by how many games I watched this season.

Offline varoadking

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Re: Apathetically awaiting the post season?
« Reply #221: October 07, 2017, 09:51:23 AM »

The Nats should stop putting the year on their "NL East Champion" caps and shirts...they could just reissue those every postseason and clear out the inventory...kinda like the Caps do with their postseason promotional crap...

Online HondoKillebrew

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Re: Apathetically awaiting the post season?
« Reply #222: October 07, 2017, 10:08:37 AM »
The Nats should stop putting the year on their "NL East Champion" caps and shirts...they could just reissue those every postseason and clear out the inventory...kinda like the Caps do with their postseason promotional crap...

I can't stand shirts and caps that celebrate division championships.