Can the Nationals score 900 runs? 950? 1000?

[bluestreak]

So this is an impressive lineup. How many runs do you think the Nationals can score this year. 900 runs would be 5.55 runs per game.  950 would be 5.68 runs per game and 1000 would be 6.17 runs per game. They are currently at 5.5 runs per game (pace for 891 runs).

[RiotAct]

750 - 780.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

900 runs

Yeah, this year's Nats are going to be the highest-score National League team since the steroid era

[Ray D]

If the history of the past few years tells us anything it's that the Nats are going to have alot of 1 and 2 run games.  Sure, a 14 run game will sustain two two-run games at an average of 6 per game, but how many of these 14 run games are we going to see.  That's an anomaly.  In the end the average will be between 3 and 4.

[Slateman]

I think they can get ~800. 900 would be absured.

I love what I'm seeing, but there is no way that Harper is gonna sustain a .400 average, nor Weiters or Zimmerman .302 and .380 respectively. I don't think Eaton is a .300+ hitter.

But what's good is that they're doing this now, when the pen is a freaking disaster. Hopefully, as the hitters come back down to earth, the pen will sort itself out and gain their stride.

[Natsinpwc]

I think they can get ~800. 900 would be absured.

I love what I'm seeing, but there is no way that Harper is gonna sustain a .400 average, nor Weiters or Zimmerman .302 and .380 respectively. I don't think Eaton is a .300+ hitter.

But what's good is that they're doing this now, when the pen is a freaking disaster. Hopefully, as the hitters come back down to earth, the pen will sort itself out and gain their stride.

Agree. 800 is basically 5 a game. Which would be awesome in the NL.

[bluestreak]

I was exaggerating to some degree. I think it's unlikely, but not quite absurd. The Cubs last year scored 808 runs. And that was with an inferior lineup to this one. No Schwarber, Hayward with no production, not very significant production from SS.
I know it's early. But at some point these things are going to be real. We've played almost 10 percent of the season? When do you start believing this? 20 percent, 40?, 100 😉?
I think it's funny that everyone is jumping to conclusion that the bullpen sucks and must be shored up with trades.
But in the exact same sample size, no one believes these offensive stats even though if you look at this lineup there's many reasons to believe it could be an absolute monster. I think they will reach 850.

[imref]

I was exaggerating to some degree. I think it's unlikely, but not quite absurd. The Cubs last year scored 808 runs. And that was with an inferior lineup to this one. No Schwarber, Hayward with no production, not very significant production from SS.
I know it's early. But at some point these things are going to be real. We've played almost 10 percent of the season? When do you start believing this? 20 percent, 40?, 100 😉?
I think it's funny that everyone is jumping to conclusion that the bullpen sucks and must be shored up with trades.
But in the exact same sample size, no one believes these offensive stats even though if you look at this lineup there's many reasons to believe it could be an absolute monster. I think they will reach 850.

We're doing this without Turner too

[OldChelsea]

If they score 900 runs, they'll allow at least 950. That bullpen is still worrisome.

[rbw5t]

If they score 900 runs, they'll allow at least 950. That bullpen is still worrisome.

I don't know what the numbers will be, but one thing I would happily bet on is that we'll score more than we allow.

[DPMOmaha]

If the history of the past few years tells us anything it's that the Nats are going to have alot of 1 and 2 run games.  Sure, a 14 run game will sustain two two-run games at an average of 6 per game, but how many of these 14 run games are we going to see.  That's an anomaly.  In the end the average will be between 3 and 4.

Sure, but we've already seen 2 14 run games from the Nats. The other teams right there with the Nats (DBacks, Yanks and Brewers) all have multiple double-digit run scored games. Nats have the highest RPG in the game becaue they've played 14 games. Everyone else has played at least 15, at least among the teams in this conversation. 900 is probably unrealistic, but I don't think 825-850 is. And at that point, who knows. If they can keep everyone on the field for most of the season, I just know that it's going to be a fun team to watch.

[NJ Ave]

If they score 800 runs, its going to be basically impossible for this team to miss the playoffs no matter what the bullpen does.

Last year the starters had a 3.60 ERA and allowed 410 runs in 960 IP. I see no reason to think this year will be substantially different from the starters. Last year was hardly an amazing year - Scherzer and Roark were good, Gio was bad, Stras and Ross were injured. Replacements were replacement level. Sounds about right.

So if this team scores 800 runs, we would have to allow 700 even to get down to a 92 win projection. That means the bullpen would have to allow 290 runs in about 500 innings, which is 88 more runs than last year.

It's not impossible, there were some teams with bullpen ERAs around 5.00 last season. But it seems like a <5% outcome, and that's just to get down to 92 wins if the team scores 800 runs. If you really want to be a fringe playoff team, the bullpen probably has to give up another 50 runs on top of that, which I'm guessing would be one of the worst bullpens in recent memory.

It's more likely we end up like the Rangers/Blue Jays last year, with a pretty poor bullpen that doesn't prevent us from making the playoffs due to our offense being so good.

[WVUGold]

These 14 run games are fun to watch and can come in abundance playing the Phils and Barves 30+ Times combined this year but in the end when it comes to playing good teams we will average significantly less runs. That's the problem with our scheduling, we can beat all these mediocre teams to death with runs but come playoff time we can't hang with the elites (call me pessimistic). Let's wait til we score double digit runs on the Mets before predicting 900 runs

[DPMOmaha]

Well, the other 14 run game came against Adam Wainwright and the Cardinals, not the Phils. And last night they put up 7 against Julio Tehran who is a pretty good pitcher. The Cardinals might not be any good this year and Waino might be about done as a pitcher and most of that damage came against a bad Cards pen, so you can value that as much as you want, but we're going to play a lot of games vs. a lot bad teams, that's how you build a high run total like that. For a prediction like this, I really don't care how they do vs. the elite teams. That run total will primarily be built vs. the Braves, Phils and most of the NL Central. If they're a good to great offensive team, if they get 4-5 runs vs. teams like the Mets, Cubs and Dodgers, they'll be in great shape.

[houston-nat]

It's never as good as the best games or as bad as the worst games.

[dracnal]

So if this team scores 800 runs, we would have to allow 700 even to get down to a 92 win projection. That means the bullpen would have to allow 290 runs in about 500 innings, which is 88 more runs than last year.

Blake Treinen: Challenge accepted!
Enny Romero: I'm in!
Matt Albers: Hey, hey hey!

[GburgNatsFan]

 

Blake Treinen: Challenge accepted!
Enny Romero: I'm in!
Matt Albers: Hey, hey hey!

[Optics]

I don't know about run totals but I do think we'll have the best offense in the NL.

Wait till Turner gets going and we start stealing bases like taking candy from babies.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

It's never as good as the best games or as bad as the worst games.

Your marklar is marklar, young marklar.

[bluestreak]

I know it's after the series in Denver, but Nats are on pace to score 950 runs. 

[nats4ever]

Nationals doing pretty good. Where is slate and half smokes at lol.

[rbw5t]

830

[bluestreak]

Now on track for over 1000 runs... 😜

[spidernat]

Now on track for over 1000 runs... 😜

Let's make a wager on this blue.

[bluestreak]

I'd make a bet. But not for 1000 runs.