2017 bullpen watch

[dcpatti]

Am I dumb to think that the Nats should sit Kinzler, Doolittle and Madson in the series against the Dodgers next month? One of the advantages of those guys is that they all came from the AL. So most of the Nats’ NL competition hasn’t seen them (the Dodgers did see Kintzler once right before the deadline and he blew a save). I’d like to win those games, but is it a better strategy to hold them?

There's no guarantee we will even see the dodgers in October. The Sneks could knock them out. And if we do see them, there's no guarantee that The Big Three will face off against the same part of the Dodgers lineup.  Fire all the bullets, hold nothing back. If we beat them (like we did twice in their house) then we will carry that momentum with us if we see them again.

[spidernat]

Am I dumb to think that the Nats should sit Kinzler, Doolittle and Madson in the series against the Dodgers next month? One of the advantages of those guys is that they all came from the AL. So most of the Nats’ NL competition hasn’t seen them (the Dodgers did see Kintzler once right before the deadline and he blew a save). I’d like to win those games, but is it a better strategy to hold them? 

yes, you are

[bluestreak]

There's no guarantee we will even see the dodgers in October. The Sneks could knock them out. And if we do see them, there's no guarantee that The Big Three will face off against the same part of the Dodgers lineup.  Fire all the bullets, hold nothing back. If we beat them (like we did twice in their house) then we will carry that momentum with us if we see them again.

Why give up the advantage for what will amount to meaningless games though? I think that if the team knows that they are holding back for this purpose, it won’t affect their mentality at all the next time they play.
Having your likely competition seeing new pitchers is a clear advantage and it’s very, very likely the nats will play the Dodgers (not guaranteed, but nothing is) , i see no purpose in giving up that advantage for nothing.

[bluestreak]

yes, you are

Thanks..

[varoadking]

Why give up the advantage for what will amount to meaningless games though? I think that if the team knows that they are holding back for this purpose, it won’t affect their mentality at all the next time they play.
Having your likely competition seeing new pitchers is a clear advantage and it’s very, very likely the nats will play the Dodgers (not guaranteed, but nothing is) , i see no purpose in giving up that advantage for nothing.

The Dodgers likely saw Kinzler in July...and I'm sure they're scouting us pretty heavily anyway...

 

[bluestreak]

The Dodgers likely saw Kinzler in July...and I'm sure they're scouting us pretty heavily anyway...

He actually blew a save against them. So you’re right. But I imagine there is no substitute for seeing the pitchers actually in the batters box.

I can admit I’m wrong on this though. It was just a thought.

[dcpatti]

Why give up the advantage for what will amount to meaningless games though? I think that if the team knows that they are holding back for this purpose, it won’t affect their mentality at all the next time they play.
Having your likely competition seeing new pitchers is a clear advantage and it’s very, very likely the nats will play the Dodgers (not guaranteed, but nothing is) , i see no purpose in giving up that advantage for nothing.

The dodgers have a ton of scouts and video which will be more informative to their batters than maybe seeing a couple pitches in September. Where a "new" pitcher may be an advantage is when it's someone completely new, a rookie off the farm for whom there's not a lot of scouting info.  The ball is moving way too fast for most batters to read it purely organically anyway, so they rely a lot on scouting info to help increase the odds of getting a hit (or the odds of running into one).

[varoadking]

He actually blew a save against them. So you’re right. But I imagine there is no substitute for seeing the pitchers actually in the batters box.

I can admit I’m wrong on this though. It was just a thought.

There is never a lack of folks on WNFF who will tell you that you're wrong... 

[Slateman]

The Dodgers likely saw Kinzler in July...and I'm sure they're scouting us pretty heavily anyway...

 

Yea, but there's a difference between scouting and seeing in person.

I certainly wouldn't let them see any of our top guys more than once.

[aBaltoNat]

Yea, but there's a difference between scouting and seeing in person.

I certainly wouldn't let them see any of our top guys more than once.

I agree and am surprised streak got the strong responses he did.

[bluestreak]

I agree and am surprised streak got the strong responses he did.

Eh. I don’t think the responses were strong. People disagreed. But even if holding these guys out saves you one run over a series, that’s a run I would like to have.

[spidernat]

The dodgers have a ton of scouts and video which will be more informative to their batters than maybe seeing a couple pitches in September. Where a "new" pitcher may be an advantage is when it's someone completely new, a rookie off the farm for whom there's not a lot of scouting info.  The ball is moving way too fast for most batters to read it purely organically anyway, so they rely a lot on scouting info to help increase the odds of getting a hit (or the odds of running into one).

Definitely. You're also talking about batters seeing them once maybe twice in a series (if that). And don't forget that most of them have probably already faced them in the Cactus league. And if a pitcher's advantage really diminished that much after facing batters a few times then pitchers would be at a huge disadvantage against division opponents.

[Slateman]

The dodgers have a ton of scouts and video which will be more informative to their batters than maybe seeing a couple pitches in September. Where a "new" pitcher may be an advantage is when it's someone completely new, a rookie off the farm for whom there's not a lot of scouting info.  The ball is moving way too fast for most batters to read it purely organically anyway, so they rely a lot on scouting info to help increase the odds of getting a hit (or the odds of running into one).

Seeing in person >> any video our scouting report

[tomterp]

The dodgers have a ton of scouts and video which will be more informative to their batters than maybe seeing a couple pitches in September. Where a "new" pitcher may be an advantage is when it's someone completely new, a rookie off the farm for whom there's not a lot of scouting info.  The ball is moving way too fast for most batters to read it purely organically anyway, so they rely a lot on scouting info to help increase the odds of getting a hit (or the odds of running into one).

Totally buy into this.  For pitch guessers narrowing the likely options improves odds.

[spidernat]

It definitely helps but it's mostly about getting accustomed to the pitcher's release point and overall familiarity with that pitcher. Either way this crap is vastly overrated and to "hold them back" in order to maintain an advantage is laughable.

[bluestreak]

It definitely helps but it's mostly about getting accustomed to the pitcher's release point and overall familiarity with that pitcher. Either way this crap is vastly overrated and to "hold them back" in order to maintain an advantage is laughable.

“It definitely helps” but “to hold them back is laughable.”  🤔

I don’t see the point of giving away an advantage, however small, if it costs you nothing.

[Monarch]

“It definitely helps” but “to hold them back is laughable.”  🤔

I don’t see the point of giving away an advantage, however small, if it costs you nothing.

I hope not one player or coach wants to concede that series. I'd put money on the probability that they are all sick of hearing about how good the dodgers are and have been looking forward to this series for a while.

[DPMOmaha]

[Slateman]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b5-iJUuPWis[url]

Yes, but when where? In the regular season when it doesn't matter?

[DPMOmaha]

You play to win the game. If the situation dictates playing those guys, play them. Don't over think it.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

The Dodgers series is in mid- September, a few weeks before the end of the season.  You can assume almost every arm that's on the roster and that has been up before will be up for that series.  Figure a 12 man bullpen.  I'd say, play it by ear.  Nice to beat those guys, but no real need to unless you are in a position to pass Houston for 2d best MLB record. 

The Dodgers probably have seen Doolittle a lot over the years.  Madson and Kintzler might be more of a mystery. 

[DPMOmaha]

The Dodgers series is in mid- September, a few weeks before the end of the season.  You can assume almost every arm that's on the roster and that has been up before will be up for that series.  Figure a 12 man bullpen.  I'd say, play it by ear.  Nice to beat those guys, but no real need to unless you are in a position to pass Houston for 2d best MLB record. 

The Dodgers probably have seen Doolittle a lot over the years.  Madson and Kintzler might be more of a mystery. 

Actually, Doolittle has never faced the Dodgers. I'm sure there are some players on the roster that have.

Kintzler's had 7 appearances vs. them, probably from his time with Milwaukee. Though he did face them once this year. He blew a save.

Madson hasn't faced the Dodgers since his return to the bigs after his 3 year layoff.

[Ray D]

Nice to beat those guys, but no real need to unless you are in a position to pass Houston for 2d best MLB record. 

Might be in a position to pass the Dodgers.  Not likely, but possible, and if we're close,  sweeping them would help considerably.

[DPMOmaha]

Might be in a position to pass the Dodgers.  Not likely, but possible, and if we're close,  sweeping them would help considerably.

We're 12.5 back right now. That would be a stunning development if that happened.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

We're 12.5 back right now. That would be a stunning development if that happened.

Yea, our seed is locked.  We aren't catching the Dodgers and the NL Central winner (likely the Cubs) isn't catching us.  We're going to open against the Cubs/Cardinals/Brewers.  I'd be shocked if it wasn't the Cubs.

As for sitting our 3 new relievers against the Dodgers, I can see how technically it could help.  I don't know the history their lineup has against each of those guys, but scouting reports aside it always is a help to actually stand in the box against a guy and get a feel.  Of course our pitchers will be scouted down to what they eat for breakfast, but there is no substitute for actually facing them.  I'm not sure how much their lineup has faced these guys over the years with the ways guys change clubs and move around and interleague play.  I'm sure other than the rest Dusty will give guys down the stretch that we aren't going to hold out any player strictly for strategic reasons to keep LA from seeing them.