Author Topic: NL East (2017)  (Read 41115 times)

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Offline NJ Ave

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Re: NL East (2017)
« Reply #550: September 07, 2017, 12:42:25 PM »
I think you trade away a top 10 prospect and spare parts every day of the week if you're getting back a 4.5 win player under control for 5 cheap seasons, who might have more upside left.

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: NL East (2017)
« Reply #551: September 07, 2017, 12:48:07 PM »
I think you trade away a top 10 prospect and spare parts every day of the week if you're getting back a 4.5 win player under control for 5 cheap seasons, who might have more upside left.
Maybe, but Yelich isn't a player we need. If both Yelich and Taylor played 162 this year at their current WAR pace (is that a thing?) CY would end up at 4.55 and MT would end up at 3.9. I'd hold on to MT. I think there's more room for growth for him, too. There are other positions I'd rather shore up if we're going to start trading away Robles.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: NL East (2017)
« Reply #552: September 07, 2017, 12:58:56 PM »

This REALLY depends on what you think long term of MAT. You're saying they're the same player, despite them being the same age and Yelich having 16.5 career WAR to MAT's 3.7. In the second half MAT's OPS is .623, so I pretty much flat reject you extrapolating his hot first half to all his missed games. I'm not at all sold on him being a long-term OF solution, whereas Yelich has had 3 excellent years in 4 in his career.

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: NL East (2017)
« Reply #553: September 07, 2017, 01:09:37 PM »
This REALLY depends on what you think long term of MAT. You're saying they're the same player, despite them being the same age and Yelich having 16.5 career WAR to MAT's 3.7. In the second half MAT's OPS is .623, so I pretty much flat reject you extrapolating his hot first half to all his missed games. I'm not at all sold on him being a long-term OF solution, whereas Yelich has had 3 excellent years in 4 in his career.
That's fair. I'm mostly basing it off of this year. And I'm not discounting the notion I'm wrong about this. I may very well be.

Offline Slateman

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Re: NL East (2017)
« Reply #554: September 07, 2017, 01:52:23 PM »
Maybe, but Yelich isn't a player we need. If both Yelich and Taylor played 162 this year at their current WAR pace (is that a thing?) CY would end up at 4.55 and MT would end up at 3.9. I'd hold on to MT. I think there's more room for growth for him, too. There are other positions I'd rather shore up if we're going to start trading away Robles.

Need? The outfield in 2019 will consist of Taylor, Eaton, and whoever we can find. Pretty sure OF is a big need. Particularly a left handed bat as well. If you want to compete in 2019 and beyond, this team will definitely need better hitters. Because guys who are now hitting 7th and 8th will be asked to hit 5th or 6th.

OF wasn't a need this offseason, but Rizzo went out and got Eaton. Actually, Eaton is a great comparison. Yelich is probably the same defensively (in CF), and a better hitter.

Offline GburgNatsFan

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Re: NL East (2017)
« Reply #555: September 07, 2017, 02:11:58 PM »
I always thought "whoever we can find" was Robles, no?

Need? The outfield in 2019 will consist of Taylor, Eaton, and whoever we can find. Pretty sure OF is a big need. Particularly a left handed bat as well. If you want to compete in 2019 and beyond, this team will definitely need better hitters. Because guys who are now hitting 7th and 8th will be asked to hit 5th or 6th.

OF wasn't a need this offseason, but Rizzo went out and got Eaton. Actually, Eaton is a great comparison. Yelich is probably the same defensively (in CF), and a better hitter.

Offline Ray D

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Re: NL East (2017)
« Reply #556: September 07, 2017, 02:59:08 PM »
I'm looking at their numbers and I don't see much difference in Yelich and Taylor other than OBP.
But the OBP difference is huge.  And if you don't think OBP is important, look at their batting averages.  That difference is huge.

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: NL East (2017)
« Reply #557: September 07, 2017, 03:03:54 PM »
Need? The outfield in 2019 will consist of Taylor, Eaton, and whoever we can find. Pretty sure OF is a big need. Particularly a left handed bat as well. If you want to compete in 2019 and beyond, this team will definitely need better hitters. Because guys who are now hitting 7th and 8th will be asked to hit 5th or 6th.

OF wasn't a need this offseason, but Rizzo went out and got Eaton. Actually, Eaton is a great comparison. Yelich is probably the same defensively (in CF), and a better hitter.
Nobody's gonna fill Harper's shoes regardless of who plays RF beyond 2018. Even if this is the likely scenario, thers's still a fair amount of projection going on here. If Harper does decide to stick around this changes the whole converstion. If Robles shows he's who we've been told he is, that changes it, too. Maybe Riz makes a move this offseason, that's possible, likely, perhaps. But I think you've got pieces coming that will help answer some of these questions.

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: NL East (2017)
« Reply #558: September 07, 2017, 03:05:46 PM »
But the OBP difference is huge.  And if you don't think OBP is important, look at their batting averages.  That difference is huge.
I know it its, but they're also filling two different roles on their respective teams.

I'm not gonna convince any of you here, that's fine. I'm not even sure I'm convinced. My whole thing is that I know I'm not convinced I want to trade Robles for Yelich. I don't think that's a smart move.

Offline Ray D

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Re: NL East (2017)
« Reply #559: September 07, 2017, 03:10:01 PM »

I'm not convinced I want to trade Robles for Yelich.

Nor am I.    But we're talking about Taylor vs. Yelich.  I think Yelich is clearly better, and I would trade Taylor plus Godwin for him, but not Taylor plus Godwin plus Yelich; there must be some middle ground there. 

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: NL East (2017)
« Reply #560: September 07, 2017, 03:13:43 PM »
Nor am I.    But we're talking about Taylor vs. Yelich.  I think Yelich is clearly better, and I would trade Taylor plus Godwin for him, but not Taylor plus Godwin plus Yelich; there must be some middle ground there. 
Well, this convo has been meandering for a while. I'd trade Taylor for Yelich, sure, but I don't see that happening. More likely it'd be Robles for Yelich (hypothetically). My whole argument is there isn't enough difference between Taylor and Yelich for me to trade Robles to get him. I may not have articulated that well. I'd rather hold on to Robles and use those resources you're not spending on Yelich in other ways.

Offline dcpatti

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Re: NL East (2017)
« Reply #561: September 07, 2017, 03:14:49 PM »
A few weeks ago, the Marlins president was unexpectedly ousted by incoming Jeter group; he learned about it via text alert (like those mlb at-bat alerts that jinx the no-hitters) https://www.fanragsports.com/marlins/heyman-marlins-president-david-samson-learn-ouster/

Woof.

Offline bluestreak

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Re: NL East (2017)
« Reply #562: September 07, 2017, 03:55:42 PM »
I believe Robles’ ceiling is high enough and more importantly Taylor’s floor is now high enough, that I would not make a move for Yelich. Taylor is a serviceable outfielder at a minimum. It’s not a question of whether Yelich is better than Taylor. He definitely is. The question is do you give up one of the best prospects in all of baseball to go from a serviceable CF to a good one.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: NL East (2017)
« Reply #563: September 07, 2017, 04:38:49 PM »
They're not going to trade for an OF this winter; they are going to want to give Eaton as much playing time as they can, plus they will have Stevenson and Robles in Syracuse getting groomed up. MAT/Bryce/Eaton on opening day with Goodwin as the 4th OF. Sure, Yelich would be an improvement because he's a very very good player but since that's already a pretty solid outfield,  he won't be enough of an improvement to warrant paying whatever we will need to give up for him.
I kind of disagree about them being unlikely to move for an OF in the offseason.  I think it is 50/50 whether they try to bring in someone who will be here in 2019 and beyond that is an eventual replacement for Bryce or Murphy.  I think they want to smooth the transition.  I don't think Taylor is that piece and think he is movable.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: NL East (2017)
« Reply #564: September 07, 2017, 04:52:37 PM »
I think you trade away a top 10 prospect and spare parts every day of the week if you're getting back a 4.5 win player under control for 5 cheap seasons, who might have more upside left.
basically, that's the reason they went after Eaton.  You can never have too many .370 OBP players. Michael Taylor's 30% K rate screams "do not build around me."  Yelich is even a year younger than Taylor.  He has had consistent offense his entire career.  You have to have a lot of faith in Taylor's D to make them comparable.  I suspect Yelich is one of the more valuable trade targets in baseball given his contract.

Offline varoadking

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Re: NL East (2017)
« Reply #565: September 07, 2017, 07:02:17 PM »
Nor am I.    But we're talking about Taylor vs. Yelich.  I think Yelich is clearly better, and I would trade Taylor plus Godwin for him, but not Taylor plus Godwin plus Yelich; there must be some middle ground there.

Huh?

Offline spidernat

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Re: NL East (2017)
« Reply #566: September 07, 2017, 07:13:27 PM »
Huh?


I think this is what he meant.



Nor am I.    But we're talking about Taylor vs. Yelich.  I think Yelich is clearly better, and I would trade Taylor plus Godwin for him, but not Taylor plus Godwin plus Yelich Robles; there must be some middle ground there. 

Offline varoadking

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Re: NL East (2017)
« Reply #567: September 07, 2017, 07:27:07 PM »

I think this is what he meant.

Sounds legit...  :thumbs:

Offline Ray D

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Re: NL East (2017)
« Reply #568: September 07, 2017, 11:26:03 PM »

I think this is what he meant.




Yeah, typo, sorry.

Offline spidernat

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Re: NL East (2017)
« Reply #569: September 08, 2017, 12:33:10 AM »
4

Offline skippy1999

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Offline nfotiu

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Re: NL East (2017)
« Reply #571: September 08, 2017, 07:44:55 AM »
I wouldn't say the Dodgers are realistically in play yet up by 6 this late in the season.  But if we make up a couple more games, then who knows.

Do we rather face the Cubs or the wild card?  Conventional wisdom says the wild card.  But the WC is 3-2 in the NLDS in this format and 2-3 in the AL.   2 of the NL wins came against us for what that's worth!   Is burning your ace a real disadvantage?   It actually makes for interesting match-ups if the WC has a decent rotation. 2vs1, 3vs2 for the first 2 games.  If you can take one of those games, then you come home with your ace against their #3.   


Offline Ray D

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Re: NL East (2017)
« Reply #572: September 08, 2017, 07:51:31 AM »
I wouldn't say the Dodgers are realistically in play yet up by 6 this late in the season. 

I would.  We play them three times so if we sweep we have to make up only 3 to catch them, and we have the tiebreaker.

Offline Slateman

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Re: NL East (2017)
« Reply #573: September 08, 2017, 07:53:22 AM »
Who gives a crap? We've already proven that home field advantage means nothing in the playoffs.


Offline Ray D

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Re: NL East (2017)
« Reply #574: September 08, 2017, 07:56:03 AM »
Who gives a crap?

I'd say everyone here except you. So why don't you shut the freak up, you've made your point numerous times.