This offense could be really, really good

[bluestreak]

The two are completely unrelated. It's great that we have great offensive production from shortstop.  That doesn't mean we have to accept near-zero production from the least (or second-least) important position player.   

We've been over this a thousand times and all seem to agree on this principle: there is an  inverse relationship between the difficulty of a defensive position and the expected offensive production from that position.  Doesn't mean you have to get low production from a hard position; DOES mean you HAVE to get production from an easy position.

Honestly what's so hard about that?

I think that he's saying that if you had to choose one to start the season, you'd choose the offensive SS, because that will be harder to replace. It is easier to find another option for offense out of 1B

[DPMOmaha]

The two are completely unrelated. It's great that we have great offensive production from shortstop.  That doesn't mean we have to accept near-zero production from the least (or second-least) important position player.   

We've been over this a thousand times and all seem to agree on this principle: there is an  inverse relationship between the difficulty of a defensive position and the expected offensive production from that position.  Doesn't mean you have to get low production from a hard position; DOES mean you HAVE to get production from an easy position.

Honestly what's so hard about that?

I get the concept fine. My point is, the objective is to put together the best offense you can with what you've got (or with what you can go out and get). I, personally, don't care what position on the field that production comes from or if it comes from the conventional means, if you end up at the place where you score a lot of runs, which I think this offense has a good chance to do. I also reject the premise that it's a foregone conclusion that so many have come to that Zim will contribute roughly nothing.

[HalfSmokes]

What difference does it make what position it comes from? Our offensive minded SS is gonna provide offense similar to that of an offensive minded 1B and our defensive minded 1B is likely to provide the offense of a defensive minded SS. Who cares that they come from non-traditional spots?

What are the odds that our short stop actually put up numbers near a top 1b?

[GuyFromCO]

What are the odds that our short stop actually put up numbers near a top 1b?

Danny K?

[Ray D]

I think that he's saying that if you had to choose one to start the season, you'd choose the offensive SS,

Yes I know. And I'm saying it's a false choice.  You DON'T have to make that choice.

[Ray D]

I also reject the premise that it's a foregone conclusion that so many have come to that Zim will contribute roughly nothing.

Actually I'm not even in that camp. I think he's going to bounce back.  But bounce back means maybe .260/.320 with 15 homeruns.  I don't think that's enough production from first base.

[DPMOmaha]

What are the odds that our short stop actually put up numbers near a top 1b?

I don't know, but I don't think it'll be that far off and he'll have SS SB numbers. So, I guess they'd be decent odds.

[DPMOmaha]

Actually I'm not even in that camp. I think he's going to bounce back.  But bounce back means maybe .260/.320 with 15 homeruns.  I don't think that's enough production from first base.

Fair enough.

[tomterp]

The two are completely unrelated. It's great that we have great offensive production from shortstop.  That doesn't mean we have to accept near-zero production from the least (or second-least) important position player.   

We've been over this a thousand times and all seem to agree on this principle: there is an  inverse relationship between the difficulty of a defensive position and the expected offensive production from that position.  Doesn't mean you have to get low production from a hard position; DOES mean you HAVE to get production from an easy position.

Honestly what's so hard about that?

So if Trea was light hitting and Zimm mashed so that the sum offensive output was the same as what we currently have you'd be satisfied?  Sorry but I DO find it hard to follow that logic.

It's a lot easier to upgrade the bat at first base since practically any warm body can play the position and the league is awash in players that would be an upgrade if not now, as non-contenders start dealing.  Heck, Lind may be an upgrade against RHP.

[HalfSmokes]

So if Trea was light hitting and Zimm mashed so that the sum offensive output was the same as what we currently have you'd be satisfied?  Sorry but I DO find it hard to follow that logic.

It's a lot easier to upgrade the bat at first base since practically any warm body can play the position and the league is awash in players that would be an upgrade if not now, as non-contenders start dealing.  Heck, Lind may be an upgrade against RHP.

The point is that a mashing short stop will rarely equal the output of a mashing 1b. Likewise a 1b who hits like a weak hitting ss is terrible for the same reason

[tomterp]

The point is that a mashing short stop will rarely equal the output of a mashing 1b. Likewise a 1b who hits like a weak hitting ss is terrible for the same reason

For WAR non-believers I guess.

[HalfSmokes]

For WAR non-believers I guess.

War adjusts for position

[tomterp]

War adjusts for position

Which is yet another comparative advantage for the Nats.

[Ray D]

It's a lot easier to upgrade the bat at first base since practically any warm body can play the position

Ok, you get it then.  freaking upgrade at first base for christ sake!.

[whytev]

Eh, I'm not going to hold out too much hope for a highly effective Zim. He'll come through in the clutch a few times, he'll fail in the clutch a few times, and he'll play fewer than 100 games.  He's clearly on a decline trend and that's okay - we knew it was the case.

But overall I agree with you - this should be an excellent year from an offensive point of view and I expect we'll reach a point where no more Papa Johns, even if it's half off.

If Zim stays how he's been, he's going to find himself only starting vs. LHP after the all star break.

[bluestreak]

Ok, you get it then.  freaking upgrade at first base for christ sake!.

Or, since you're paying him a bunch of money anyways, see how he performs and if he doesn't then find a replacement.

[Ray D]

Or, since you're paying him a bunch of money anyways, see how he performs and if he doesn't then find a replacement.

I'm fine with that, giving him a chance to redeem himself.  But we already have a replalcement. Lind.  I'd give Zimm a month and if he's not producing, at least platoon him with Lind.

[bluestreak]

I'm fine with that, giving him a chance to redeem himself.  But we already have a replalcement. Lind.  I'd give Zimm a month and if he's not producing, at least platoon him with Lind.

I do not disagree with this. But given the salary I'd at least give him a chance.

[tomterp]

Ok, you get it then.  freaking upgrade at first base for christ sake!.

 

[tomterp]

I'm fine with that, giving him a chance to redeem himself.  But we already have a replalcement. Lind.  I'd give Zimm a month and if he's not producing, at least platoon him with Lind.

Yeah, he's a solid if not great bat against righties.  In 351 AB's,  19 HR and   .239   .287   .442   .729

[Slateman]

Here are the NL LFs with an OPS above .800 in 2016:

Braun, Cespedes, Yelich

3 total, and only 2 more in the AL (Khris Davis and Melky Cabrera at exactly .800).  Werth had the 10th highest OPS amongst MLB LFs last year and 6th in the NL.  If he's a "giant freaking hole" then the vast majority of teams have one.

Nats had a .687 OPS from their LFers. freaking giant hole in the lineup.

[Natsinpwc]

Nats had a .687 OPS from their LFers. freaking giant hole in the lineup.

So really a .750 from that position would be more than adequate.

[Slateman]

So really a .750 from that position would be more than adequate.

No, not really.

[Elvir Ovcina]

Here are the NL LFs with an OPS above .800 in 2016:

Braun, Cespedes, Yelich

3 total, and only 2 more in the AL (Khris Davis and Melky Cabrera at exactly .800).  Werth had the 10th highest OPS amongst MLB LFs last year and 6th in the NL.  If he's a "giant freaking hole" then the vast majority of teams have one.

I understand you're responding to someone else's point, but part of the issue here is also defense.  Werth and Zimmerman are both offensive question marks and defensive liabilities (or perhaps neutrals in Zimmerman's case) at positions at which it's very easy and cheap to find people who can do at least one of those two pretty well.  An .800 OPS probably isn't a reasonable expectation but neither is a -2.2 WAA from LF and -2.9 at 1B (and even negative WAR at both).  Werth's offense was OK last year but the LF gap is going to be a busy place this year with Eaton in CF.

[whytev]

I understand you're responding to someone else's point, but part of the issue here is also defense.  Werth and Zimmerman are both offensive question marks and defensive liabilities (or perhaps neutrals in Zimmerman's case) at positions at which it's very easy and cheap to find people who can do at least one of those two pretty well.  An .800 OPS probably isn't a reasonable expectation but neither is a -2.2 WAA from LF and -2.9 at 1B (and even negative WAR at both).  Werth's offense was OK last year but the LF gap is going to be a busy place this year with Eaton in CF.

Zimmerman is very good at 1st base defence. Good hands, good instincts, the occasional diving stop. His bat matters more, but credit where credit due.