Author Topic: This offense could be really, really good  (Read 3282 times)

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Offline Elvir Ovcina

  • Posts: 1992
Re: This offense could be really, really good
« Reply #50: March 08, 2017, 12:34:44 PM »
Zimmerman is very good at 1st base defence. Good hands, good instincts, the occasional diving stop. His bat matters more, but credit where credit due.

No, he should be very good at first base given his pedigree.  I've never seen that in reality.  He has zero range and he's below average at scooping balls in the dirt, which more than cancels out his hands.  FWIW, the numbers don't seem to disagree with my eyes either.

Re: This offense could be really, really good
« Reply #51: March 08, 2017, 02:01:22 PM »
Nats had a .687 OPS from their LFers. freaking giant hole in the lineup.

How are  you disputing the facts I placed in front of you?  Werth was the 10th best LF in OPS in all of baseball.  He's not a problem unless he gets hurt and we're putting MAT in the OF.

Re: This offense could be really, really good
« Reply #52: March 08, 2017, 02:06:30 PM »
Like others have said, with the money owed and considering how good Zim has been prior to last year's disaster, you have to give him a chance.  If he gets off to an awful start, then see what kind of production you can get in whole with Lind starting against most righties in a platoon.  If that still isn't working by the deadline, then there should be bats available to fill the 1B spot.  Easiest place to find a bat.

I think so long as he stays healthy that Zim is going to be pretty solid, and with Lind maybe starting against some tougher righties in a platoon, we'll be okay at 1B.  I'm not at all predicting vintage Zim, but I think he still has the ability to mash and hit 20-25 HRs with a .260 or .270ish average.  While I'm not predicting it, I wouldn't be totally shocked if he was slightly better than that with a full healthy season.  He's 32, and while most think he's done, look at Nelson Cruz.  He was an oft-injured guy until his mid-30s and then he suddenly started to stay healthy and hit 40 HRs a year.  Not saying Zim becomes Cruz, but he can have a little resurgence in his 30s. 

Re: This offense could be really, really good
« Reply #53: March 08, 2017, 02:11:12 PM »
I understand you're responding to someone else's point, but part of the issue here is also defense.  Werth and Zimmerman are both offensive question marks and defensive liabilities (or perhaps neutrals in Zimmerman's case) at positions at which it's very easy and cheap to find people who can do at least one of those two pretty well.  An .800 OPS probably isn't a reasonable expectation but neither is a -2.2 WAA from LF and -2.9 at 1B (and even negative WAR at both).  Werth's offense was OK last year but the LF gap is going to be a busy place this year with Eaton in CF.

Werth was a positive WAR guy last year.  He's a little above average offensively and a little below average defensively.  This is the last year of his deal.  If he's not getting it done then we can look to rent a bat at the deadline.  Heck, maybe Robbles skyrockets like Turner did last year and we move Eaton to the corner and Robbles plays CF down the stretch?

As for Zim, I'd say he's all in all about average defensively at 1B.  No question he needs to be better offensively, and if he isn't, then we'll have to look at options as the year progresses.

The good news is we're not talking about counting on them in the heart of the order.  Murph, Harper, Turner, Rendon, and Eaton can carry other struggling guys in a lineup.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

  • Posts: 1992
Re: This offense could be really, really good
« Reply #54: March 08, 2017, 02:26:34 PM »
Werth was a positive WAR guy last year.  He's a little above average offensively and a little below average defensively.  This is the last year of his deal.  If he's not getting it done then we can look to rent a bat at the deadline.  Heck, maybe Robbles skyrockets like Turner did last year and we move Eaton to the corner and Robbles plays CF down the stretch?

As for Zim, I'd say he's all in all about average defensively at 1B.  No question he needs to be better offensively, and if he isn't, then we'll have to look at options as the year progresses.

The good news is we're not talking about counting on them in the heart of the order.  Murph, Harper, Turner, Rendon, and Eaton can carry other struggling guys in a lineup.

True, albeit barely as to BR's measure.  Sorry for the mistake, and agree on the rest.  I'm not as bullish on Robles as a fast riser as many others; I've seen him play a few times and he strikes me as needing quite a bit of work, including on defense.  He's got the athletic skills most definitely and he hits mid-90s fastballs, but he didn't look good against even decent breaking stuff and the bad routes and judgment in the OF are not things he'll be able to run himself out of as easily at higher levels.  Those are all things that can easily be learned and often are in the high minors, but I'd be extremely surprised to see him above even AA this year.

Offline Slateman

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Re: This offense could be really, really good
« Reply #55: March 08, 2017, 02:30:02 PM »
How are  you disputing the facts I placed in front of you?  Werth was the 10th best LF in OPS in all of baseball.  He's not a problem unless he gets hurt and we're putting MAT in the OF.
You ignored the fact that Yasmany Tomas, Kris Bryant, and Starling Marte all played LF. Furthermore, of players that had at least 300 PAs while playing LF, Werth is 22 out of 40 in OPS.

Werth is crap at the plate at this point. He plays LF like a first baseman. He doesn't make up for his awfulness at the plate with baserunning. He's really good at one thing: Taking a lot of pitches.

Offline Slateman

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Re: This offense could be really, really good
« Reply #56: March 08, 2017, 02:32:44 PM »
Werth was a positive WAR guy last year.  He's a little above average offensively and a little below average defensively.  This is the last year of his deal.  If he's not getting it done then we can look to rent a bat at the deadline.  Heck, maybe Robbles skyrockets like Turner did last year and we move Eaton to the corner and Robbles plays CF down the stretch?

As for Zim, I'd say he's all in all about average defensively at 1B.  No question he needs to be better offensively, and if he isn't, then we'll have to look at options as the year progresses.

The good news is we're not talking about counting on them in the heart of the order.  Murph, Harper, Turner, Rendon, and Eaton can carry other struggling guys in a lineup.


"Positive WAR" What the freak? Wilmer Difo was a postitive WAR player. In fact, he got 0.5 WAR in 31 games while Werth got 1.1 in 143. So how about we bench Werth and start Difo in LF. He'd easily post over 2 WAR

Offline Elvir Ovcina

  • Posts: 1992
Re: This offense could be really, really good
« Reply #57: March 08, 2017, 02:38:24 PM »

"Positive WAR" What the freak? Wilmer Difo was a postitive WAR player. In fact, he got 0.5 WAR in 31 games while Werth got 1.1 in 143. So how about we bench Werth and start Difo in LF. He'd easily post over 2 WAR

He was just responding to my point about Zimmerman and Werth - I said they were both negative WAR.  Turns out only one was and the other was just way below average, but not below replacement level.

Re: This offense could be really, really good
« Reply #58: March 08, 2017, 02:41:52 PM »

"Positive WAR" What the freak? Wilmer Difo was a postitive WAR player. In fact, he got 0.5 WAR in 31 games while Werth got 1.1 in 143. So how about we bench Werth and start Difo in LF. He'd easily post over 2 WAR

Other than the fact Werth played all year and Difo barely played at all...you make an excellent point.  You contend Werth is a "giant freakin' black hole" and there is absolutely zero data to back that.  He's basically average.  That's what the data says.  That's not a black hole.  You are being dramatic.

Re: This offense could be really, really good
« Reply #59: March 08, 2017, 02:42:49 PM »
You ignored the fact that Yasmany Tomas, Kris Bryant, and Starling Marte all played LF. Furthermore, of players that had at least 300 PAs while playing LF, Werth is 22 out of 40 in OPS.

Werth is crap at the plate at this point. He plays LF like a first baseman. He doesn't make up for his awfulness at the plate with baserunning. He's really good at one thing: Taking a lot of pitches.

So 22 out of 40...that's middle of the pack.  You believe that half of baseball has a "giant freakin' hole" in LF?

Re: This offense could be really, really good
« Reply #60: March 08, 2017, 02:45:40 PM »
True, albeit barely as to BR's measure.  Sorry for the mistake, and agree on the rest.  I'm not as bullish on Robles as a fast riser as many others; I've seen him play a few times and he strikes me as needing quite a bit of work, including on defense.  He's got the athletic skills most definitely and he hits mid-90s fastballs, but he didn't look good against even decent breaking stuff and the bad routes and judgment in the OF are not things he'll be able to run himself out of as easily at higher levels.  Those are all things that can easily be learned and often are in the high minors, but I'd be extremely surprised to see him above even AA this year.

RE: Robles...I'd be surprised as well.  My point is that we're fine to see what Werth can give us and then if he's a problem we'll address that later.  No need to make any big move for a replacement LF now.  Shouldn't be a challange to get a corner OF rental bat around the deadline if we need it.  And like I said, there could be an out-of-nowhere surprise internally like Robles fasttracking or heck maybe even MAT or Goodwin breakout.  Not expecting any of those scenarios, but we can wait and see for now.  The core of our lineup is deadly.  We're picking apart the weakest couple of batters.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

  • Posts: 1992
Re: This offense could be really, really good
« Reply #61: March 08, 2017, 03:01:23 PM »
RE: Robles...I'd be surprised as well.  My point is that we're fine to see what Werth can give us and then if he's a problem we'll address that later.  No need to make any big move for a replacement LF now.  Shouldn't be a challange to get a corner OF rental bat around the deadline if we need it.  And like I said, there could be an out-of-nowhere surprise internally like Robles fasttracking or heck maybe even MAT or Goodwin breakout.  Not expecting any of those scenarios, but we can wait and see for now.  The core of our lineup is deadly.  We're picking apart the weakest couple of batters.

I'm worried about C, 1B, and LF, in that order.  People seem to have forgotten how much offense we got at catcher last year.  That's not going to be repeated, and the most obvious places to make up for it are at the positions where we were getting suboptimal production last season and where offense is relatively easy to come by.  So yes, picking apart the weakest couple, but related to the larger context.

Re: This offense could be really, really good
« Reply #62: March 08, 2017, 03:32:14 PM »
I'm worried about C, 1B, and LF, in that order.  People seem to have forgotten how much offense we got at catcher last year.  That's not going to be repeated, and the most obvious places to make up for it are at the positions where we were getting suboptimal production last season and where offense is relatively easy to come by.  So yes, picking apart the weakest couple, but related to the larger context.

Replacing what Ramos did last year at C wasn't an option, so not really worried about it.  How many great hitting catchers are there?  Wieters is at the least average there, but I think he has the ceiling to be more like a top-10 hitting C.  If Werth is the same as last year, that's fine.  Zim has to improve obviously.  If those 3 are even average, then our offense will be right behind the Cubs if not equal.

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 43251
Re: This offense could be really, really good
« Reply #63: March 08, 2017, 06:50:14 PM »
Other than the fact Werth played all year and Difo barely played at all...you make an excellent point.  You contend Werth is a "giant freakin' black hole" and there is absolutely zero data to back that.  He's basically average.  That's what the data says.  That's not a black hole.  You are being dramatic.

Play Difo in LF all season and he'll have a higher WAR than Werth.

Online tomterp

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Re: This offense could be really, really good
« Reply #64: March 08, 2017, 08:22:02 PM »
Play Difo in LF all season and he'll have a higher WAR than Werth.

 :hysterical:

Offline whytev

  • Posts: 8768
Re: This offense could be really, really good
« Reply #65: March 08, 2017, 09:18:09 PM »
I'm worried about C, 1B, and LF, in that order.  People seem to have forgotten how much offense we got at catcher last year.  That's not going to be repeated, and the most obvious places to make up for it are at the positions where we were getting suboptimal production last season and where offense is relatively easy to come by.  So yes, picking apart the weakest couple, but related to the larger context.

In Wieters they got the second best free agent option. He's a good catcher. Not amazing. This isn't replacing Span with Michael A. Taylor we're talking about. More like the Mets losing Murphy and gaining Walker. Don't worry about C, especially if we keep Norris and rock a L/R platoon.

Don't worry about 1B either. Zimmerman has more than just Moore and Robinson breathing down his neck in Lind. Lind and Zimmerman have strong platoon splits, just like Wieters and Norris. It's fine.

Worry about LF. If Werth really falls apart, worry about CF because that will mean Eaton sliding over and the return of Michael A. Taylor.

Offline Nats Diamond

  • Posts: 19
Re: This offense could be really, really good
« Reply #66: March 09, 2017, 09:10:47 PM »
I hope so.  I'm a fan of high powered offenses regardless of the sport.

Re: This offense could be really, really good
« Reply #67: March 10, 2017, 12:43:41 PM »
Play Difo in LF all season and he'll have a higher WAR than Werth.

Based on what exactly?  His .672 OPS in 410 ABs in AA last year?  I wonder if you purposely just troll sometimes. 

Offline Elvir Ovcina

  • Posts: 1992
Re: This offense could be really, really good
« Reply #68: March 10, 2017, 01:40:37 PM »
Based on what exactly?  His .672 OPS in 410 ABs in AA last year?  I wonder if you purposely just troll sometimes.

You're revealing that you're still new here. 

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 43251
Re: This offense could be really, really good
« Reply #69: March 10, 2017, 01:48:30 PM »
Based on what exactly?  His .672 OPS in 410 ABs in AA last year?  I wonder if you purposely just troll sometimes. 
1. Can field his position adequately.
2. Won't strike out 22% of the time
3. Will steal lots of bases.

Difo > Werth

Re: This offense could be really, really good
« Reply #70: March 10, 2017, 02:05:39 PM »
1. Can field his position adequately.
2. Won't strike out 22% of the time
3. Will steal lots of bases.

Difo > Werth

He had a .672 OPS last year in double A!  He can't steal 1st and he'd have to be Ken Griffey in his prime playing left field to make up that much difference with his defense, but he's never even played the outfield.  Yea, let's replace a proven guy like Werth with a guy who couldn't hit in double a.

Offline dracnal

  • Posts: 1115
Re: This offense could be really, really good
« Reply #71: March 10, 2017, 03:25:53 PM »
He had a .672 OPS last year in double A!  He can't steal 1st and he'd have to be Ken Griffey in his prime playing left field to make up that much difference with his defense, but he's never even played the outfield.  Yea, let's replace a proven guy like Werth with a guy who couldn't hit in double a.

Cory, you should only respond to Slate knowing that he's impervious to logic and reason. He understands facts objectively, but takes far more pleasure in twisting your nuts and taking the opposite position of every single person on here. If someone were to start saying Difo deserves the job, he would switch to saying a nutless monkey would post a higher WAR.

Treat him as entertainment value only to be responded to when you're not expecting a serious debate and just want to see his twisted convolutions. That's a lot of fun.

Re: This offense could be really, really good
« Reply #72: March 10, 2017, 03:50:59 PM »
Cory, you should only respond to Slate knowing that he's impervious to logic and reason. He understands facts objectively, but takes far more pleasure in twisting your nuts and taking the opposite position of every single person on here. If someone were to start saying Difo deserves the job, he would switch to saying a nutless monkey would post a higher WAR.

Treat him as entertainment value only to be responded to when you're not expecting a serious debate and just want to see his twisted convolutions. That's a lot of fun.

Haha thanks

Re: This offense could be really, really good
« Reply #73: April 20, 2017, 11:29:14 AM »
Like I was saying...

Re: This offense could be really, really good
« Reply #74: April 23, 2017, 11:19:00 PM »
Once Turner gets back into the swing of things and Rendon gets in his groove...WOW.  I mean the 7th and 8th hitters are Werth and Wieters.  There is no place to take a breather for a pitcher other than the pitcher's spot.  Even Lind and Drew off the bench can rake and Heisey has plenty of pop.