Author Topic: Follow the Prospects: Luis Garcia, SS  (Read 1035 times)

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Offline imref

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Follow the Prospects: Luis Garcia, SS
« Topic Start: March 06, 2017, 11:20:34 AM »
Vitals:
Age 16
6'0, 180
Bats Left, throws right.
Signed in 2016 for $1.3 million

Ranked #3 international prospect by Baseball America, #7 by MLB.com, #7 Nats prospect by BA, #4 Nats prospect by Fangraphs

Fangraphs:

Quote
Though he didn’t receive the largest bonus among Nationals 2016 July 2 signees, Garcia is the best. He ranked sixth on our 2016 J2 board, has an intriguing combination of tools and polish, and is one of the higher-upside prospects in this system. He was showing average raw pull power during showcase BPs as an amateur. His current in-game swing is geared for line drives, but Garcia has plenty of physical projection. There’s a chance, as he grows, that he’ll produce some game power without having to adjust his approach to hitting.

Defensively, Garcia is an above-average runner with an above-average arm, and both project to plus at his physical peak. His actions at shortstop are fine, and he could be an above-average defender there with reps. Some scouts think the body might grow off of short, but if that’s the case, Garcia will have likely grown into enough power to profile at either second or third. He was one of the 2016 J2 class’s youngest players and won’t even turn 17 until May, so he’s likely to spend this year in the DSL. He’s a potential above-average everyday shortstop light years from the majors ranked ahead of the other 45s on this list purely based on his upside.

http://www.masnsports.com/byron-kerr/2016/12/nats-no-7-prospect-luis-garcia.html
Quote
“He was ranked our No. 3 ranked prospect in the international class,” said Baseball America’s Teddy Cahill. “He isn’t the biggest bonus from the Nationals’ signing class this year. (Dominican shortstop) Yasel Antuna got more money than he did. But we had Garcia ranked ahead of him and ahead of Jose Sanchez. He’s a guy that’s really advanced for his age.

baseballs-in-bin-sidebar.jpg“Obviously, we are talking about 16-year-olds, so he’s very far away. He has a good feel at the plate. He understands hitting at an advanced level and he’s just really athletic and he is a plus runner. He’s got the arm strength. He needs some work defensively, but again he’s 16. But you are looking at a guy with the skill set to play shortstop.”

Cahill noted that Garcia is so athletic that he could slot into several positions defensively because the Nats might want to get his bat in the lineup, similar to the Trea Turner’s move to center field last season after being a shortstop for his entire career.

“Some people think he could maybe move off of shortstop, maybe going to center field or second base, with an up-the-middle profile,” Cahill continued. “He has the advanced feel for hitting that should be able to carry him. His father was a big leaguer (one season with the Tigers), which is probably why he is a little more advanced. But when you look at him, he’s got a lot of exciting tools for the Nats to help develop over the next few years.”
Alongside Antuna, it’s easy to see how the Nationals are looking to bulk up their middle infield talent level.

Video:
http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/26271672/v1224428183/top-prospects-luis-garcia-ss-nationals


Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Luis Garcia, SS
« Reply #2: July 02, 2018, 01:26:30 PM »
Hitting .345/.377/.492 since May 1 after a slow start. Impressive in a full-season league for a kid who just turned 18. Age for level is such an important indicator.

Offline imref

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Luis Garcia, SS
« Reply #3: July 06, 2018, 04:26:30 PM »
Also named to the All-Star Futures Game, representing The World team.

Offline Smithian

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Luis Garcia, SS
« Reply #4: July 08, 2018, 02:27:08 PM »
Got called up to Potomac a few days ago. Had two hits last night.

Call him up Rizzo :whip:

Offline imref

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Luis Garcia, SS
« Reply #5: July 15, 2018, 03:04:37 AM »
http://natsgm.com/ has a nice look at Garcia on the front page now.

Offline bluestreak

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Luis Garcia, SS
« Reply #6: July 15, 2018, 07:54:12 PM »
Strikeout and Walk in the Futures game.

Offline Glockypoo

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Luis Garcia, SS
« Reply #7: July 19, 2018, 09:24:03 AM »
Baseball America just tweeted out a tease that Garcia is now in their Top 100.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Luis Garcia, SS
« Reply #8: July 19, 2018, 10:13:09 AM »
Baseball America just tweeted out a tease that Garcia is now in their Top 100.

I think he's a guy that ceiling-first scouting orgs are going to underrate, but top-100 feels like a stretch to me unless you think there's hidden power there. Seems like you're hoping he turns into Joe Panik, and that's not a top-100 guy to me.

Offline Glockypoo

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Luis Garcia, SS
« Reply #9: July 19, 2018, 11:28:40 AM »
I think he's a guy that ceiling-first scouting orgs are going to underrate, but top-100 feels like a stretch to me unless you think there's hidden power there. Seems like you're hoping he turns into Joe Panik, and that's not a top-100 guy to me.
Yep he's almost all projection right now. Still only 18.

I'd sell high on him. Seems like a good bet to bust.

Offline RD

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Luis Garcia, SS
« Reply #10: July 20, 2018, 12:37:36 AM »
I think he's a guy that ceiling-first scouting orgs are going to underrate, but top-100 feels like a stretch to me unless you think there's hidden power there. Seems like you're hoping he turns into Joe Panik, and that's not a top-100 guy to me.

Not sure why Panik would be seen as an expectation. For starters, Garcia has a real shot at being a big league SS. He’s got all the tools physically to do it, and his makeup is praised. He moved around at Hagerstown but I think that had more to do with getting everyone on the field. He’s been a SS at Potomac exclusively so far. He’s also suppose to have tremendous speed. It hasn’t played up to stolen bases yet, but the trades I’ve read are 65-70 which is excellent. Those two things give him a much higher ceiling than a Panik type. I don’t know ultimately how much power he’ll have in terms of home runs but he had 21 extra base hits at Hagerstown in half a season, much of it being a 17 year old(youngest player in the league). I definitely think there’s more pop to come. You’re seeing many of the high school guys approaching 19 as they get drafted. He’s closer in age right now to a lot of high school juniors. He turns 19 3 weeks before next years draft.

I’d definitely put him in the top 100 and could be much higher a year from now. I don’t want to say the sky is the limit but he can play SS, can hit, and can run. If the big question is power, it’s not a huge issue at short, but don’t write him off in that category. Look at how a guy like Albies has blossomed. I’m not projecting a similar trajectory necessarily, just that we’ve seen some smaller guys develop unexpected home run power.

With that said, I agree he’s a movable piece. Kieboom and Robles could be called upon for every day roles next year, so it’d be tough to move them. Garcia has a bright future and who knows, could prove to be better than Kieboom eventually. But if he can fetch a quality starter or catcher, he could be our most valuable trade chip.


Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Luis Garcia, SS
« Reply #11: July 20, 2018, 09:13:50 AM »
Is Trea a reasonable comp, but maybe with a better glove?

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Luis Garcia, SS
« Reply #12: July 20, 2018, 09:33:04 AM »
Not sure why Panik would be seen as an expectation. For starters, Garcia has a real shot at being a big league SS.

Not sure why you think Joe Panik is an insult, since he's put up 2 WAR/600 PA through 3.5 seasons. A league average player is a huge win for any prospect.

If you want to think he's more like Jean Segura, that's fine. I stand by my statement that when you're that young at that level, you really need bigger tools and a bigger projection to be a top-100 prospect, not just 55 SS defense and limited pop.

Could a guy being used as a UT in the minors turn into a ML SS? Could a guy who's shown 0 power develop average power? Could a guy who shows no basestealing ability turn into a super valuable runner?

Sure?

2080 generally is high on the Nats prospects (I think the guy also does writeups for Federalbaseball). He has Robles #2 midseason and Kieboom #20. He has Luis Garcia #121. The kid has obviously had a great year for his prospect status and is a real good prospect. I just personally wouldn't put an 18-year old (by definition high-risk) in my top 100 without a higher ceiling.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Luis Garcia, SS
« Reply #13: July 20, 2018, 09:57:59 AM »
Is Trea a reasonable comp, but maybe with a better glove?
No. Wilmer Difo is a far better comparison.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Luis Garcia, SS
« Reply #14: July 20, 2018, 10:05:18 AM »
No. Wilmer Difo is a far better comparison.

This is my point kind of. Difo is a likelier outcome than him becoming a 3-win SS.

Offline RD

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Luis Garcia, SS
« Reply #15: July 20, 2018, 02:13:36 PM »
Not sure why you think Joe Panik is an insult, since he's put up 2 WAR/600 PA through 3.5 seasons. A league average player is a huge win for any prospect.

If you want to think he's more like Jean Segura, that's fine. I stand by my statement that when you're that young at that level, you really need bigger tools and a bigger projection to be a top-100 prospect, not just 55 SS defense and limited pop.

Could a guy being used as a UT in the minors turn into a ML SS? Could a guy who's shown 0 power develop average power? Could a guy who shows no basestealing ability turn into a super valuable runner?

Sure?

2080 generally is high on the Nats prospects (I think the guy also does writeups for Federalbaseball). He has Robles #2 midseason and Kieboom #20. He has Luis Garcia #121. The kid has obviously had a great year for his prospect status and is a real good prospect. I just personally wouldn't put an 18-year old (by definition high-risk) in my top 100 without a higher ceiling.

By your standard, Ozzie Albies shouldn't have been a top 100 guy.

At 18, he had a 0 homer season, with a 20 power grade. Yet, was a top 20 prospect.

Im not trying to make adirect comparison to Albies. But hes a smallish middle infielder who had power questions. As he matured, power came. I'm not predicting Albies type of growth or anything, just pointing it out. Garcia had 21 extra base hits in half a season of full season ball at 17/18. Many top.draftees are pushing 19 come draft day. Garcia wont turn 19 until 3 weeks before the next draft.

As for Panik, if he was an SS with better speed, that's an upgrade on the Giants version of Panik, right?

I also think you're looking at his defensive usage at Hagerstown and coming to the conclusion that hes a utility guy because he was moved around. I think the versatility was a plus. He was with a 2B only in Freeman. And fellow bonus baby Antuna  at short. Him moving around was merely an effort to get everyone on the field together. Hes been a SS exclusively on Potomac and all reports say he has the tools to stick at SS.

As far as a Difo comparison, sure that could be a possible outcome. But, Garcia was much more highly regarded at signing. And, Difo didnt really come on the prospect map until he was 22 at Hagerstown. Garcia just had success at 17/18.

In general, I understand your point about how high an 18 year old should be ranked. Theres a ton of projection left. I just think you limit how high you rank them. I'm not saying Garcia should be an elite prospect, or that hell ever be. But hes been very impressive for his age. All rankings are about projection. I see no reason an 18 year old that shows multiple impressive.tools in full season ball at a premium position shouldn't be considered a top 100 prospect.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Luis Garcia, SS
« Reply #16: July 20, 2018, 03:40:37 PM »
Albies as a SS had three tools - field, hit, and run- that were all a half grade to a full grade above Garcia.

Look, hopefully he continue to develop. I don't think I would ever put an 18-year old in A-ball in my top 100 without a 60 grade tool. Or maybe they think several of his tools have improved, which is great!

Offline RD

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Luis Garcia, SS
« Reply #17: July 20, 2018, 04:02:35 PM »
Albies as a SS had three tools - field, hit, and run- that were all a half grade to a full grade above Garcia.

Look, hopefully he continue to develop. I don't think I would ever put an 18-year old in A-ball in my top 100 without a 60 grade tool. Or maybe they think several of his tools have improved, which is great!

Like i said, I'm not trying to make a direct comparison. But you are the one that made the comment about limited pop at 18 making the top 100. Albies had zero pop, a 20 grade, the lowest possible, at 18 and was not just a top 100, he was elite. Assuming that Albies has always had a higher ceiling, with the hit tool being the only real superior grade, certainly Garcia can be justified from 80-100 if Albies was too 15.

Also, for comparison sake, Albies field tool is ranked by MLb pipeline(for comparison sake from the same site) as 55, same as Garcia. Albies speed was 70, and Garcia a 65(but have seen it rated a 70 elsewhere). That's pretty damn close.  The one area of real difference was a 60 hit tool for Albies to 50 for Garcia. But Garcia hitting .300 in full season ball at 18 could show that that may be an underrated rating. In terms of power, Garcia at least punches a 45 while Albies had a 20. That's a big difference in favor of Garcia.

Essentially it's one tool,the hit tool, that Albies graded out higher on. That may be the most important tool and again, I dont mean to make it direct comparison. it's just an obvious one to make. So one shade higher of a hit tool justifies Albies as top 20 but it's not fair to put Garcia in the top 100?

Btw, Garcia has two 60+ rated tools. 60 arm, 65 speed.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Luis Garcia, SS
« Reply #18: July 20, 2018, 10:40:16 PM »
Oh mlb pipeline huh? That notable website that also has Daniel Johnson with two 60 tools and Carter Kieboom with zero. Very reputable.

Thank god Erick Fedde has two 60 pitches!

Offline RD

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Luis Garcia, SS
« Reply #19: July 20, 2018, 11:49:15 PM »
Oh mlb pipeline huh? That notable website that also has Daniel Johnson with two 60 tools and Carter Kieboom with zero. Very reputable.

Thank god Erick Fedde has two 60 pitches!

It may not stack up to others in terms of detail for every prospect but it’s an outside source that was easy enough to find a comparison at similar ages. And it’s free. At least I provided some info for both at the same development stage and wasn’t just making things up.  It is possible for players to bust and fail despite being talented. Fedde’s fastball and slider have always been lauded. He was a mid 1st round pick despite needing TJ. Johnson was always considered very toolsy but needed development. Him having 2 60 grades for arm speed doesn’t mean he should be considered a better prospect than Kieboom. Kieboom being pretty much a 55 across the board isn’t a knock on him either. Other than maybe power, I don’t think anyone would give Kieboom a 60 in any tool. And for power, I’ve seen him as a 55 in multiple places and 60 in one. So it’s not like the grades are drastically different. I’m not sure what the gripe is in your examples.

You created some random criteria for inclusion in the to 100 and I pointed out that it’s flawed. That’s all.

Offline imref

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Luis Garcia, SS
« Reply #20: July 30, 2018, 03:03:10 PM »
SB Nation 7/30/18:

Quote
Luis Garcia, SS/3B, Potomac Nationals
Garcia, the Nationals’ third best prospect, has been solid in his last two games. Garcia has gone 6-9 with a home run, three doubles and three RBI. Garcia tallied four hits and two doubles in Potomac’s 10-1 victory over the Carolina Mudcats on Sunday. Garcia has a .297 batting average with four home runs and 38 RBI in 381 at bats through 97 games this season.

Further Reading: Luis Garcia Scouting Report - 2080 Baseball
“Hit Tool: Hitterish w/ excellent natural bat-to-ball skill; fluid, balanced, athletic stroke that takes what is given and uses both fields. Makes adjustments very quickly for a teenager. Ingredients of future plus hit tool."

Offline RD

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Luis Garcia, SS
« Reply #21: August 01, 2018, 12:29:44 AM »
He hit another bomb today at Potomac.

29 extra base hits(19/5/5) in 98 games of full season ball at 17/18 is pretty impressive.

Offline imref

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Luis Garcia, SS
« Reply #22: August 13, 2018, 06:28:01 PM »
.311   .336   .439 at Potomac, .359 in his last 10.  Nice breakout season