The Weather (2017)

[imref]

The NCH warnings are sounding increasingly like Katrina.  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS84-KHGX.shtml

Meanwhile, there's potential of a TS or Cat-1 hurricane working its way up the east coast next week while Harvey spins back into the gulf, reforms as a Cat 3 storm, and hits along the Texas/Louisiana border.

[Ali the Baseball Cat]

Fortunately FEMA is in beautiful (if small) hands

[Slateman]

Fortunately FEMA is in beautiful (if small) hands

  at FEMA being helpful

[HalfSmokes]

  at FEMA being helpful

they'll cut checks afterward assuming you're capable of wading through the regulations and paperwork to figure out how to request one.

[Natsinpwc]

Fortunately FEMA is in beautiful (if small) hands

I read that the guy running FEMA actually has a background in emergency management and his nomination was well received by all sides.

[imref]

I read that the guy running FEMA actually has a background in emergency management and his nomination was well received by all sides.

If there are three landfall hits in the next week, FEMA is going to be overwhelmed, regardless of who's in charge.

[imref]

Harvey is now a Cat-3 storm, maximum sustained winds are 120 MPH, it could strengthen even more.

Amazingly, the Euro model nailed this storm as early as August 18.

Is it too soon, or political, to note that the primary driver behind the rapid intensification of this storm are the warmer than normal gulf water temps?  You can never say that a single storm is caused by global warming, but the kinds of rapid intensifications we're seeing are something you'd expect from it.

[varoadking]

Is it too soon, or political, to note that the primary driver behind the rapid intensification of this storm are the warmer than normal gulf water temps?  You can never say that a single storm is caused by global warming, but the kinds of rapid intensifications we're seeing are something you'd expect from it.

You stayed at a Holiday Inn recently, didn't you?

[skippy1999]

Harvey is now a Cat-3 storm, maximum sustained winds are 120 MPH, it could strengthen even more.

Amazingly, the Euro model nailed this storm as early as August 18.

Is it too soon, or political, to note that the primary driver behind the rapid intensification of this storm are the warmer than normal gulf water temps?  You can never say that a single storm is caused by global warming, but the kinds of rapid intensifications we're seeing are something you'd expect from it.

After Katrina all we heard was we were going to be inundated with super storms, this is the first one since that year....

[HalfSmokes]

After Katrina all we heard was we were going to be inundated with super storms, this is the first one since that year....

don't interrupt a good rant with facts.

[imref]

don't interrupt a good rant with facts.

did we forget Sandy?

And the monster storms in the pacific since Katrina?

Latest rainfall projects from Harvey are now showing some areas getting 40-53" of rain.

[imref]

You stayed at a Holiday Inn recently, didn't you?

No, I only stay at Hilton properties. 

I can read though:

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/ClimateStorms/page2.php

William Lau, a scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, concluded in a 2012 paper that rainfall totals from tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic have risen at a rate of 24 percent per decade since 1988. The increase in precipitation doesn’t just apply to rain. NOAA scientists have examined 120 years of data and found that there were twice as many extreme regional snowstorms between 1961 and 2010 as there were from 1900 to 1960.

[HalfSmokes]

did we forget Sandy?

And the monster storms in the pacific since Katrina?

Latest rainfall projects from Harvey are now showing some areas getting 40-53" of rain.

the predictions were for Gulf storms, if you want to include hurricanes that move up the coast, 3 majors in 12 years doesn't seem spectacular, certainly not the huge shift in storm patterns that people were predicting

[varoadking]

No, I only stay at Hilton properties. 

I'm a Marriott guy...

[skippy1999]

did we forget Sandy?

And the monster storms in the pacific since Katrina?

I meant where I live so only talking about the Gulf of Mexico, where we were told 12 years ago the waters were getting so warm devastating storms were going to happen several times a season, we've gotten nada since.

[dracnal]

the predictions were for Gulf storms, if you want to include hurricanes that move up the coast, 3 majors in 12 years doesn't seem spectacular, certainly not the huge shift in storm patterns that people were predicting

Of the 31 Atlantic Cat 5 storms recorded since 1924 (when an anemometer could measure them), 8 of them happened between 2000 and 2009. Which as best as I can tell means squat because the data is either affected by really weird cyclical events (like the El Nino / La Nina type currents interacting with other, longer cycle factors) since the second most happened in the 30's. I still think it's too hard to predict what specific changes global warming will create but acknowledge that I fully believe human activity has indeed caused a warming trend and climate change as a result.

[HalfSmokes]

Of the 31 Atlantic Cat 5 storms recorded since 1924 (when an anemometer could measure them), 8 of them happened between 2000 and 2009. Which as best as I can tell means squat because the data is either affected by really weird cyclical events (like the El Nino / La Nina type currents interacting with other, longer cycle factors) since the second most happened in the 30's. I still think it's too hard to predict what specific changes global warming will create but acknowledge that I fully believe human activity has indeed caused a warming trend and climate change as a result.

It bothers me when individual storms somehow become attributed to a new pattern (the same thing happened after the derecho). We know that the earth is warming and we know that it will have effects on weather patterns. Trying to ascribe global warming as a cause and then extrapolating to future events is what makes it easy to doubt the whole science since anyone can just say 'look, this prediction was wrong'

[DPMOmaha]

https://twitter.com/WardDPatrick/status/901166387321810945

[imref]

It bothers me when individual storms somehow become attributed to a new pattern (the same thing happened after the derecho). We know that the earth is warming and we know that it will have effects on weather patterns. Trying to ascribe global warming as a cause and then extrapolating to future events is what makes it easy to doubt the whole science since anyone can just say 'look, this prediction was wrong'

agreed, you can never say "that storm was because of global warming."  But you can say that global warming suggests that there will be increasingly stronger storms, and then look for patterns that prove or dispel the hypotheses.  The kind of massive bombing out, over warmer than usual waters, that we're seeing with Harvey, is consistent with the impacts of AGW.

[dracnal]

agreed, you can never say "that storm was because of global warming."  But you can say that global warming suggests that there will be increasingly stronger storms, and then look for patterns that prove or dispel the hypotheses.  The kind of massive bombing out, over warmer than usual waters, that we're seeing with Harvey, is consistent with the impacts of AGW.

Given the small sample size involved in how many hurricanes and tropical depressions there are, I think it's harder to make too much out of any given storm, regardless of the nastiness.  It's much more useful to look at the hottest year on record trend lines, or to examine things like the DC metro region has had three times as much rain as average for this summer and compare that year to year.  I don't know that there's solid evidence (meaning something most climate scientists agree upon) saying a given hurricane season producing a big storm is from climate change. They seem WAY more comfortable talking about annual trends.

On the flipside, the media loves any sort of clickbait headline it can produce either talking about how freaked the shrimp trawlers will be vs. the other side of media poo pooing the whole affair.

[varoadking]

On the flipside, the media loves any sort of clickbait headline...

So does imref... 

[skippy1999]

So does imref... 

[imref]

Tough crowd.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

what I've heard has been that climate change leads to stronger atlantic storms, not more storms.  Another thing that was going on the past few years was El Nino, which impacts wind currents that can inhibit storm formation.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Oh, back to Harvey.  Cat 4 as of 7 PM EDT. 130 MPH winds. https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-harvey-forecast-gulf-coast-texas-louisiana