Author Topic: 2018 HOF ballot  (Read 784 times)

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Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2018 HOF ballot
« Reply #25: January 25, 2018, 11:48:00 AM »
Mo is a lock, Halladay too IMHO.  Edgar probably gets in.  I don't see anyone else crossing the threshold next year.
I was a huge Halladay fan and would like to support him (as if it matters), but I have not looked at his numbers case yet, and compared it to Pettite, Mussina, Schilling, and guys not on the ballot like Kevin Brown, who was close to his era (a little earlier).  My guess is  his numbers are worse than Brown and Schilling, similar to Mussina, and better than Pettite.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: 2018 HOF ballot
« Reply #26: January 25, 2018, 12:31:33 PM »
I was a huge Halladay fan and would like to support him (as if it matters), but I have not looked at his numbers case yet, and compared it to Pettite, Mussina, Schilling, and guys not on the ballot like Kevin Brown, who was close to his era (a little earlier).  My guess is  his numbers are worse than Brown and Schilling, similar to Mussina, and better than Pettite.

I've mixed in some old- and new-school metrics for these guys and deliberately left JAWS and WAR off as they're essentially composite stats.  You tell me who belongs in.  For a lot of people, the narrative at the end may end up making the difference I'd think.

256-153 (.626), 3.85, 26 complete games, 2448 K/1031 BB in 3316 IP.  117 ERA+, 3.74 FIP.  3 all-star games, 2 20-win seasons, 5 rings.  PEDs.
211-144 (.594), 3.28, 72 complete games, 2397 K/901 BB in 3256 IP. 127 ERA+, 3.33 FIP.  6 all-star games, 1 no-hitter, 1 20-win season, 1 ring.  Huge a-hole.
203-105 (.659), 3.38, 67 complete games, 2117 K/592 BB in 2749 IP.   131 ERA+, 3.39 FIP.  8 all-star games, 2 Cy Youngs, a perfect game, and a no-hitter in the playoffs.  Won 20 3 times.  No rings.
270-153 (.638), 3.68, 57 complete games, 2813/785 in 3562 IP.  123 ERA+, 3.57 FIP. 5 all-star games, 7 gold gloves. Won 20 games as a 39-year old.  No rings.
216-146 (.597), 3.46, 83 complete games, 3116/711 in 3261 IP.  127 ERA+, 3.23 FIP.  6 all-star games.  Won 20 3 times.  3 rings, 1 WS MVP.  One bloody sock.  Huge a-hole.  Bonus points for being part of one of the most lopsided trades ever.

My take is Mussina (you'll see he was on my "ballot" this year), Schilling (same), and Halladay.  Part of all of this is just the eyeball test: Halladay was the best pitcher out of any of them, Schilling wasn't far behind, and Mussina had the best single pitch out of any of them.   But Halladay's an absolute no-brainer for me.  The only thing that ever slowed him down was injuries. 

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2018 HOF ballot
« Reply #27: January 25, 2018, 01:37:01 PM »
My ranking?  256 isn't in the conversation. 216 and 203 over 270.  I'm not keen on 211's win total but what has him lower than 216 and 203 is his K/BB.  211 and 270 are close, but I'll give 270 an edge because his ERA+ makes up the ERA difference.  I'm not in awe of the complete game total from guys, without more, who might have been on teams with better closers, especially if they ended up with comparable innings. 

So, 216 or 203, then 270, then 211, then 256.

My guess as to who they are?  Schilling, Halladay, Mussina, Brown, Pettite.  But I thought Mussina was on the 2009 NYY, so I might be wrong.  If I'm right, then it is easy - draw the line at Mussina /Brown.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: 2018 HOF ballot
« Reply #28: January 25, 2018, 01:51:37 PM »
My ranking?  256 isn't in the conversation. 216 and 203 over 270.  I'm not keen on 211's win total but what has him lower than 216 and 203 is his K/BB.  211 and 270 are close, but I'll give 270 an edge because his ERA+ makes up the ERA difference.  I'm not in awe of the complete game total from guys, without more, who might have been on teams with better closers, especially if they ended up with comparable innings. 

So, 216 or 203, then 270, then 211, then 256.

My guess as to who they are?  Schilling, Halladay, Mussina, Brown, Pettite.  But I thought Mussina was on the 2009 NYY, so I might be wrong.  If I'm right, then it is easy - draw the line at Mussina /Brown.

Then you and I agree.  Mussina retired after 2008.

Online bluestreak

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Re: 2018 HOF ballot
« Reply #29: January 25, 2018, 03:41:08 PM »
I think 2 Cy Youngs for Halladay is what puts him over the top for me. Indicates that he was thought to be dominant by his contemporaries. The playoff no hitter is just gravy.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: 2018 HOF ballot
« Reply #30: January 25, 2018, 03:47:13 PM »
I think 2 Cy Youngs for Halladay is what puts him over the top for me. Indicates that he was thought to be dominant by his contemporaries. The playoff no hitter is just gravy.

Plus, 7 CY top-fives in 9 years. Quite a peak.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2018 HOF ballot
« Reply #31: January 25, 2018, 04:13:36 PM »
By bonus points on "one of the most lopsided trades ever," are you saying the Glenn Davis trade?  I don't think the Boddicker trade was that bad given Boddicker I think pitched on a couple of division winners.  Sort of in the Alexander for Smoltz vein.

What was the Davis trade - Finley, Harnisch, and Schilling?  Also, what was the trade that sent him to Philly? 

Or are you saying the last deal - Casey Fossum, Jorge de la Rosa, and guy who was a closer for a brief while (I forget his name, but he closed some in 2003)? 

Also, I've always been a Brown fan, and thought he was $crewed by not hitting 5% his first year, but I wonder if the ERA, ERA+ and FIP are overly influenced by pitching in SD. I'm a little surprised at the K/BB.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: 2018 HOF ballot
« Reply #32: January 25, 2018, 04:22:09 PM »
By bonus points on "one of the most lopsided trades ever," are you saying the Glenn Davis trade?

What was the Davis trade - Finley, Harnisch, and Schilling?

Yes, and yes.  Davis did absolutely nothing, and all three of those guys were quite good for a little while, with Finley and Schilling being good for long periods.  The trade to Philly was straight up for Jason Grimsley because Schilling was being that much of an a-hole.  Grimsley was...well, half of everyone who watched baseball in the 1990s had Jason Grimsley on their team at one time or another, but he was at least a useful major league player, unlike Davis with the Orioles.  But it's interesting that Schilling was involved in multiple really bad trades.

Also, I've always been a Brown fan, and thought he was $crewed by not hitting 5% his first year, but I wonder if the ERA, ERA+ and FIP are overly influenced by pitching in SD. I'm a little surprised at the K/BB.

He was indeed screwed, but he was in Baltimore a lot longer than San Diego (which was Qualcomm/Jack Murphy when he was there, not Petco, so not quite as strong).  He suffered for making Schilling look like the Dalai Lama in terms of interpersonal understanding and media relations skills.

Offline imref

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Re: 2018 HOF ballot
« Reply #33: January 27, 2018, 10:47:13 AM »
Zuck writes that Vlad is going into the hall as an Angel.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2018 HOF ballot
« Reply #34: January 27, 2018, 11:45:10 AM »
Zuck writes that Vlad is going into the hall as an Angel.
he ended up playing about the same amount of time at both teams, and I guess with Montreal no longer having a team, he feels no attachment to the Nats.  I don't think Carter or Dawson wore Expos caps, either.  Raines?

Offline Count Walewski

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Re: 2018 HOF ballot
« Reply #35: January 27, 2018, 12:31:50 PM »
I thought players no longer got to choose?

I always think of Vlad as an Expo and I bet everyone outside of Southern California does too.

Offline mitlen

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Re: 2018 HOF ballot
« Reply #36: January 27, 2018, 12:57:24 PM »
I thought players no longer got to choose?



Watching/listening to Nats' Talk this morning and Craig Heist (sittin' in for Phil) made that point.    Wallace was surprised to learn the HOF chooses.

Offline blue911

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Re: 2018 HOF ballot
« Reply #37: January 27, 2018, 01:20:44 PM »
I thought players no longer got to choose?

I always think of Vlad as an Expo and I bet everyone outside of Southern California does too.

He said something to the effect that since the Expos no longer existed, he'd go in as an Angel.

Online bluestreak

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Re: 2018 HOF ballot
« Reply #38: January 27, 2018, 01:30:45 PM »
he ended up playing about the same amount of time at both teams, and I guess with Montreal no longer having a team, he feels no attachment to the Nats.  I don't think Carter or Dawson wore Expos caps, either.  Raines?

Raines, Carter and Dawson all went in as Expos. This was over Dawson’s and Carter’s objections. The Hall took it out of the players’ hands when it was rumored that Wade Boggs had a bonus in his contract if he went in as a Ray.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2018 HOF ballot
« Reply #39: January 27, 2018, 01:40:42 PM »
Raines, Carter and Dawson all went in as Expos. This was over Dawson’s and Carter’s objections. The Hall took it out of the players’ hands when it was rumored that Wade Boggs had a bonus in his contract if he went in as a Ray.
I would not have expected Dawson or Carter to have wanted to go in as Expos.  I guess wants got nothing to do with it.