Author Topic: 2017 Lineup  (Read 10432 times)

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Online bluestreak

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Re: 2017 Lineup
« Reply #125: April 18, 2017, 10:43:15 AM »
Interesting article on lineup management.
https://www.google.com/amp/www.beyondtheboxscore.com/platform/amp/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by

If we follow this I would do

Eaton
Turner
Rendon
Harper
Murphy
Zimmerman
Werth
Pitcher
Wieters

It doesn't feel right though. Maybe put Turner at 6?

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2017 Lineup
« Reply #126: April 18, 2017, 12:33:29 PM »
If Murphy is moving anywhere, it's the two spot

Offline Smithian

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Re: 2017 Lineup
« Reply #127: April 18, 2017, 01:21:36 PM »
Trea Turner had a .937 OPS in over 300 ABs last season along with a batch of steals. If he drops in the lineup, it is only to #2. You aren't dropping him to six.

I'm a big believer in not taking the bat out of your star's hands. I hate bunting and stealing right in front of your big bat. I don't think it applies here thanks to Daniel Murphy. Teams can't pitch around Harper with a big time hitter right behind him.

I think Zim trends down eventually, Rendon trends up, and Wieters/Werth end up as decent bats. If Turner comes back and gets going this lineup will put up ridiculous numbers.

Offline Smithian

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Re: 2017 Lineup
« Reply #128: April 18, 2017, 01:22:45 PM »
If Murphy is moving anywhere, it's the two spot
If we didn't have Eaton I'd want either Harper or Murphy hitting second. Right now I think they'll keep giving Rendon some burn there so he gets pitches.

Offline whytev

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Re: 2017 Lineup
« Reply #129: April 18, 2017, 02:23:49 PM »
If he steals, then Bryce gets walked.  Not the worst result if you like Murphy hitting with 2 guys on, but it means that of your two best hitters, only one gets pitched to.  If you bat him 6th, they probably don't walk Face to get to Wieters, and if they do, :clap:

If Trea is dropped out of the top 2, I want him 8. Then at least he's buntable.

Offline whytev

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Re: 2017 Lineup
« Reply #130: April 18, 2017, 02:24:40 PM »
If we didn't have Eaton I'd want either Harper or Murphy hitting second. Right now I think they'll keep giving Rendon some burn there so he gets pitches.

Rendon was good again over the last series.

Re: 2017 Lineup
« Reply #131: April 18, 2017, 03:13:10 PM »
Trea Turner had a .937 OPS in over 300 ABs last season along with a batch of steals. If he drops in the lineup, it is only to #2. You aren't dropping him to six.

I'm a big believer in not taking the bat out of your star's hands. I hate bunting and stealing right in front of your big bat. I don't think it applies here thanks to Daniel Murphy. Teams can't pitch around Harper with a big time hitter right behind him.

I think Zim trends down eventually, Rendon trends up, and Wieters/Werth end up as decent bats. If Turner comes back and gets going this lineup will put up ridiculous numbers.

I agree with this.  I expect Rendon to be the guy we saw in the 2nd half of last year as he gets going.  My hopes and expectations, health provided, is that Zim, Werth, and Wieters are all solid bats.  If Zim can provide 20-25 HR pop and a .270ish average, I'll take it.  I'll take Werth with 20 HR pop and a solid OBP.  Neither will revert to their heyday, but we don't need them to. 

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2017 Lineup
« Reply #132: April 18, 2017, 03:48:13 PM »
Trea Turner had a .937 OPS in over 300 ABs last season along with a batch of steals. If he drops in the lineup, it is only to #2. You aren't dropping him to six.

I'm a big believer in not taking the bat out of your star's hands. I hate bunting and stealing right in front of your big bat. I don't think it applies here thanks to Daniel Murphy. Teams can't pitch around Harper with a big time hitter right behind him.

I think Zim trends down eventually, Rendon trends up, and Wieters/Werth end up as decent bats. If Turner comes back and gets going this lineup will put up ridiculous numbers.

Turner was hitting .158 before he went on the DL. He's not a star. He's the most suspect bat on the team right now. I don't think you can expect him to hit like he did last year. A .388 BABIP is not sustainable, even for him.

Offline MorseTheHorse

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Re: 2017 Lineup
« Reply #133: April 18, 2017, 04:10:30 PM »
Batting Turner 6th seems like overthinking it. 

However it's arranged this years offense is potent.  Bats make other bats more productive in a way that pitching doesn't make other pitching more porent.  For example, Roark mowing guys down on Tuseday doesn't impact Scherzer on Wednesday, but Murphy batting behind Harper and Turner/Eaton batting ahead of him makes Harper more productive.  WAR doesn't capture that, but I wonder if teams are catching on to it...

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: 2017 Lineup
« Reply #134: April 21, 2017, 10:13:17 AM »
Not quite 10% of the way through the season, the Nats lead MLB in Batting Average, OBP, OPS and Runs per game; 2nd in SLG; 3rd in Hits; 5th in HR.

Re: 2017 Lineup
« Reply #135: April 21, 2017, 10:37:56 AM »
Turner was hitting .158 before he went on the DL. He's not a star. He's the most suspect bat on the team right now. I don't think you can expect him to hit like he did last year. A .388 BABIP is not sustainable, even for him.

Nobody expects Turner to hit .340 or whatever again, but are you seriously questioning him based on a week to start the season?  Some of the things you say...wow.

Re: 2017 Lineup
« Reply #136: April 21, 2017, 10:40:49 AM »
We actually have so many guys qualified to hit in premium spots in the lineup that the "problem" is deciding who gets stuck in the bottom of the order.  We're going to have I guess Werth or maybe Rendon batting SEVENTH followed by 4-time All Star Wieters.  That's insane depth in the lineup. 

Offline aspenbubba

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Re: 2017 Lineup
« Reply #137: April 26, 2017, 09:07:34 AM »
I like the line up as it has been the past two games. No need to change until something isn't working ( are you listening Rusty?). TT looks great in the 2 hole

Offline Smithian

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Re: 2017 Lineup
« Reply #138: April 26, 2017, 09:49:30 AM »
I like the line up as it has been the past two games. No need to change until something isn't working ( are you listening Rusty?). TT looks great in the 2 hole
I think he's shown enough power that he profiles as a 2 hole hitter. He needs to have people on base in front of him and Eaton is a good base runner so he won't slow him down.

Online Baseball is Life

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Re: 2017 Lineup
« Reply #139: April 26, 2017, 10:09:32 AM »
We actually have so many guys qualified to hit in premium spots in the lineup that the "problem" is deciding who gets stuck in the bottom of the order.  We're going to have I guess Werth or maybe Rendon batting SEVENTH followed by 4-time All Star Wieters.  That's insane depth in the lineup. 

Right now, I think Werth should be eighth. But I'm sure his ego won't allow it. Wieters is too slow for 8. But I think Rusty moves guys around based on who is hot.

Offline Optics

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Re: 2017 Lineup
« Reply #140: April 26, 2017, 12:00:52 PM »
I like Turner at 2. Gives us better lefty/righty balance and I love the force multipler effect of Turner hitting before Harper. Ps have to throw him strikes and if Turner does get on, they're so terrified of him stealing 2nd that even a slight loss in focus on Harper could result in serious damage being done.

Online bluestreak

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Re: 2017 Lineup
« Reply #141: April 26, 2017, 12:59:53 PM »
I like Turner at 2. Gives us better lefty/righty balance and I love the force multipler effect of Turner hitting before Harper. Ps have to throw him strikes and if Turner does get on, they're so terrified of him stealing 2nd that even a slight loss in focus on Harper could result in serious damage being done.

I honestly think that if Turner is 2nd and he steals, they will just walk Harper. Wouldn't it be better to have him on lead off and distract the pitcher facing Eaton? Or steal and get knocked in by Eaton. Obviously it doesn't matter if Zimmerman and Murphy continue to hit well above .300, but I like
Turner at leadoff.

Offline DCFan

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Re: 2017 Lineup
« Reply #142: April 26, 2017, 01:07:33 PM »
I honestly think that if Turner is 2nd and he steals, they will just walk Harper. Wouldn't it be better to have him on lead off and distract the pitcher facing Eaton? Or steal and get knocked in by Eaton. Obviously it doesn't matter if Zimmerman and Murphy continue to hit well above .300, but I like
Turner at leadoff.

It's the L-R-L thing that has Eaton leading off and Turner batting 2nd. And with Zim back to his old hitting machine self Harper isn't getting the intentional walks anymore.

Offline Smithian

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Re: 2017 Lineup
« Reply #143: April 26, 2017, 03:34:34 PM »
I honestly think that if Turner is 2nd and he steals, they will just walk Harper. Wouldn't it be better to have him on lead off and distract the pitcher facing Eaton? Or steal and get knocked in by Eaton. Obviously it doesn't matter if Zimmerman and Murphy continue to hit well above .300, but I like
Turner at leadoff.
I agree with not taking the bat out of your star's hands but as long as Murphy or Zimmerman is behind him mashing then I think that cancels it out.

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2017 Lineup
« Reply #144: April 26, 2017, 06:05:26 PM »
Teams will pitch carefully to Harper, regardless of who is hitting in front of behind him

Offline _sturt_

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Re: 2017 Lineup
« Reply #145: April 26, 2017, 11:27:25 PM »
Just backtracked and thought of this thread...

Thank you RZ, for screwing up my prognostication... you're the x-factor that came from completely out of left field... didn't see this coming.



Thinking we can pretty much pencil in

1) Turner
2) Murphy
3) Harper
4) Rendon
5) Werth...

8 ) Wieters
9) P

versus RHPs.

That's based on these last couple of days line-ups, at least, and Dusty having said he's now in full regular season prep mode.

Tinkering with #6 and #7 yesterday and now today... yesterday, Eaton then Zim, today Zim then Eaton.

Offline Optics

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Re: 2017 Lineup
« Reply #146: April 27, 2017, 12:14:08 AM »
I honestly think that if Turner is 2nd and he steals, they will just walk Harper. Wouldn't it be better to have him on lead off and distract the pitcher facing Eaton? Or steal and get knocked in by Eaton. Obviously it doesn't matter if Zimmerman and Murphy continue to hit well above .300, but I like
Turner at leadoff.

That's fine. Then we got Turner and Harper at 2nd and 1st and Zimm and Murphy to drive them in. There is also the threat of a double steal with those two on the bases(probably not worth the risk with such quality hitters hitting after them).

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: 2017 Lineup
« Reply #147: April 27, 2017, 12:22:41 AM »
Currently on pace to score 948 runs this year.

FTR, no team has scored north of 900 this decade. Bunch of 'em did the decade prior, at least one a year. Didn't go beyond that.

Re: 2017 Lineup
« Reply #148: April 27, 2017, 11:23:47 AM »
Turner was hitting .158 before he went on the DL. He's not a star. He's the most suspect bat on the team right now. I don't think you can expect him to hit like he did last year. A .388 BABIP is not sustainable, even for him.

Just wanted to bump this quote...

Offline hotshot

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Re: 2017 Lineup
« Reply #149: April 27, 2017, 11:53:30 AM »
Turner was hitting .158 before he went on the DL. He's not a star. He's the most suspect bat on the team right now. I don't think you can expect him to hit like he did last year. A .388 BABIP is not sustainable, even for him.

More suspect than Wieters?  :roll: