Author Topic: Economics PhD student writes paper titled "Make Baseball Fun Again"  (Read 931 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Online Count Walewski

  • Posts: 1783
The paper is not available yet, but here is a summary of it from an economics blog:

http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2016/11/make-baseball-fun.html

The paper is purported to claim as follows:

Quote
Using Pitch F/X data covering over 6 million pitches, we document that pitchers are averse to throwing fastballs. Controlling for the state space of a baseball game, including balls, strikes, outs, inning, run differential, and pitcher/batter fixed effects, we find the pitching team is more likely to win the game when throwing a fastball. This is inconsistent with a mixed-strategy equilibrium where the pitcher’s utility is winning the game. We document that fastballs are riskier, leading to more outs, but also to more extra-base hits. We outline a possible incentive problem between the team and the pitcher, who has preferences over remaining in the game, similar to career concerns (Holmstrom 1998), leading the pitcher to be risk-averse. As suggestive evidence, we show that these effects are more prevalent later in the game, and that rookie pitchers, who have less leverage over pitch choice, do not exhibit this tendency.

Offline KnorrForYourMoney

  • Posts: 15313
  • Nats RP have no nerve
Ironically, he makes baseball boring.

Online imref

  • Posts: 24460
  • 1B: The New Hot Corner
Didn't detwiler through nothing but fastballs?

Offline Lintyfresh85

  • Posts: 35048
  • Champs!
Didn't detwiler through nothing but fastballs?

Yep. Look at all the good that did him.

Offline HalfSmokes

  • Posts: 18807
How do they control for the fact that if a major league hitter knows you're going to throw a fast ball, they're going to hit it really far

Offline varoadking

  • Posts: 19398
How do they control for the fact that if a major league hitter knows you're going to throw a fast ball, they're going to hit it really far

Danny Espinosa...

Offline HalfSmokes

  • Posts: 18807

How do they control for the fact that if a major league hitter knows you're going to throw a fast ball, they're going to hit it really far
Danny Espinosa...

Online imref

  • Posts: 24460
  • 1B: The New Hot Corner

Offline Minty Fresh

  • Posts: 19519
  • The Last DC Champion of My Lifetime

Offline shoeshineboy

  • Posts: 7857
  • Walks Kill!! Walks Kill! Walks Kill!!!!

Offline shoeshineboy

  • Posts: 7857
  • Walks Kill!! Walks Kill! Walks Kill!!!!
How do they control for the fact that if a major league hitter knows you're going to throw a fast ball, they're going to hit it really far

I also wonder if they accounted for the mix of 2-seam and 4-seam. If you can move it around, you can be effective, even without the best stuff in the world.

I still loved that this happened (not all fastballs, but mostly):