16/17 Offseason Thread

[Slateman]

So you've got next season covered. What about the following 3-5 years, which he's going to get by a stupid team? He isn't a cheap or short deal anymore...

Kind of doubting that more than 3 years seeing as how he'll be 37 next season, but even so, Werth comes off the books after next season, so it's covered.

[Slateman]

I don't think that's a sure thing at all.

It's more of a sure thing that Gio Gonzalez

[BrandonK]

I don't think that's a sure thing at all.

To Slate it is

[BrandonK]

Kind of doubting that more than 3 years seeing as how he'll be 37 next season, but even so, Werth comes off the books after next season, so it's covered.

He'll get at least an Iwakuma-esque deal, but I'm guess more years guaranteed. Pitching market is stupid dry, so teams will overpay.

[Slateman]

He'll get at least an Iwakuma-esque deal, but I'm guess more years guaranteed. Pitching market is stupid dry, so teams will overpay.

Iwakuma was 34 when he signed his last two year, two option year deal. That is an absolute steal of a deal. You get Rich Hill for two seasons at 32 million, that's a good deal

Nats are going to have to make a trade for another bat to replace Werth and Revere. More than likely they'll have to part with either Lopez or Giolito. You gotta strike when you can.

[BrandonK]

Iwakuma was 34 when he signed his last two year, two option year deal. That is an absolute steal of a deal. You get Rich Hill for two seasons at 32 million, that's a good deal

"At least"

Again, we'll see what happens once FA starts. A $25-$35M/2 yr isn't bad, no, but if it's more, that's a nonstarter IMO

[Mattionals]

My guess is that Gio is shopped and he is traded to someone like Miami who could use him after, well, the worst thing. I think they go with Lopez and Giolito competing for the final spot, but it goes to Lopez who has been better than Giolito to this point.

My thought all along has had Rizzo being a big bidder on Chapman, but I'm weary about deferred money and the willingness to play somewhere else, like going back to Chicago. Stuck with Zim and Werth though, but the latter isn't all that bad.

[zimm_da_kid]

"At least"

Again, we'll see what happens once FA starts. A $25-$35M/2 yr isn't bad, no, but if it's more, that's a nonstarter IMO

I think a 3 year deal for hill around $45M would be feasible if its frontloaded like $15M, $15M, $10M

[DPMOmaha]

I just wouldn't go near Hill. This seems to me one of these anomaly years you see every once in a while. I wouldn't gamble on that not being the case.

[Smithian]

I know I'm in the minority but I'm not sure I want to let Gio Gonzalez go.  His performance this season stunk but you can plug him for 30 starts and 175 innings. If his ERA goes back towards career norms at all next season then that is a valuable fifth starter. With Strasburg's health and Giolito, Ross, and Lopez still possibly having to deal with innings limits I think it is valuable knowing you have at least three starters (Scherzer, Roark, Gio) who you know will go every five days.

If the big three are all healthy and dealing, Giolito takes a step forward, and Ross/Lopez are dealing and you have a starter crunch that is a good thing then you sit back and you curse dropping all the money on Gonzalez but that is a lot of things that need to go right.

[welch]

I know I'm in the minority but I'm not sure I want to let Gio Gonzalez go.  His performance this season stunk but you can plug him for 30 starts and 175 innings. If his ERA goes back towards career norms at all next season then that is a valuable fifth starter. With Strasburg's health and Giolito, Ross, and Lopez still possibly having to deal with innings limits I think it is valuable knowing you have at least three starters (Scherzer, Roark, Gio) who you know will go every five days.

If the big three are all healthy and dealing, Giolito takes a step forward, and Ross/Lopez are dealing and you have a starter crunch that is a good thing then you sit back and you curse dropping all the money on Gonzalez but that is a lot of things that need to go right.

+1

One lesson from this season: keep an extra starter, or two extras. Consider the injuries to Ross and Strasburg, the stumbles by Giolito and Lopez. Then think about the Mets, who only had Thor and Big Bart plus rookie call-ups, after all the injuries.

[imref]

I know I'm in the minority but I'm not sure I want to let Gio Gonzalez go.  His performance this season stunk but you can plug him for 30 starts and 175 innings. If his ERA goes back towards career norms at all next season then that is a valuable fifth starter. With Strasburg's health and Giolito, Ross, and Lopez still possibly having to deal with innings limits I think it is valuable knowing you have at least three starters (Scherzer, Roark, Gio) who you know will go every five days.

If the big three are all healthy and dealing, Giolito takes a step forward, and Ross/Lopez are dealing and you have a starter crunch that is a good thing then you sit back and you curse dropping all the money on Gonzalez but that is a lot of things that need to go right.

I tend to agree with this.  I think we do need to add a mid-level starter in the off season as I don't think we can trust Ross, Lopez, or Giolito at this point, or even Strasburg.  So sign a #3-type starter, maybe even Latos.

[Slateman]

I know I'm in the minority but I'm not sure I want to let Gio Gonzalez go.  His performance this season stunk but you can plug him for 30 starts and 175 innings. If his ERA goes back towards career norms at all next season then that is a valuable fifth starter. With Strasburg's health and Giolito, Ross, and Lopez still possibly having to deal with innings limits I think it is valuable knowing you have at least three starters (Scherzer, Roark, Gio) who you know will go every five days.

If the big three are all healthy and dealing, Giolito takes a step forward, and Ross/Lopez are dealing and you have a starter crunch that is a good thing then you sit back and you curse dropping all the money on Gonzalez but that is a lot of things that need to go right.

This is the new normal for him. He's getting older. He's lost velocity. His control was never good. He's basically a five inning/75 pitch pitcher.

I'd much rather take that 12 million and put towards someone else who can actually pitch well. Because right now, Gio is going to be a tax on the pen, particularly if we're going with a young guy for the number 5 starter.

[Mattionals]

This is the new normal for him. He's getting older. He's lost velocity. His control was never good. He's basically a five inning/75 pitch pitcher.

I'd much rather take that 12 million and put towards someone else who can actually pitch well. Because right now, Gio is going to be a tax on the pen, particularly if we're going with a young guy for the number 5 starter.

This.

[HalfSmokes]

To Slate it is

So was the Mets rotation making it through the year healthy

[Slateman]

So was the Mets rotation making it through the year healthy

So was Bryce Harper coming back down to Earth.

[MorseTheHorse]

I feel like Ross isn't getting enough respect here.  He was having a pretty good year before getting injured and is only 23.  To me, you start with Scherzer, Roark, Strasburg and Ross as givens and the question is who #5 should be.  Personally, I'd prefer handing the ball to Lopez, but I definitely understand the point of view of keeping Gio. 

Question, tho about signing and trading Gio.  How much more than 1 yr/12M could he get on the open market?  B/c if one is to project his free market value at something like 1 yr/15 or 2yr/25, does he really have much trade value? 

[Slateman]

I feel like Ross isn't getting enough respect here.  He was having a pretty good year before getting injured and is only 23.  To me, you start with Scherzer, Roark, Strasburg and Ross as givens and the question is who #5 should be.  Personally, I'd prefer handing the ball to Lopez, but I definitely understand the point of view of keeping Gio. 

Question, tho about signing and trading Gio.  How much more than 1 yr/12M could he get on the open market?  B/c if one is to project his free market value at something like 1 yr/15 or 2yr/25, does he really have much trade value? 

Ross is 4/5 material until he learns a change up and improves his fastball. He and Strasburg have durability issues.

[Truconfidence]

I feel like Ross isn't getting enough respect here.  He was having a pretty good year before getting injured and is only 23.  To me, you start with Scherzer, Roark, Strasburg and Ross as givens and the question is who #5 should be.  Personally, I'd prefer handing the ball to Lopez, but I definitely understand the point of view of keeping Gio. 

Question, tho about signing and trading Gio.  How much more than 1 yr/12M could he get on the open market?  B/c if one is to project his free market value at something like 1 yr/15 or 2yr/25, does he really have much trade value?

we have to buy him out to be a FA. so he has value because he is in the top 10 pitchers available if he was a FA.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I feel like Ross isn't getting enough respect here.  He was having a pretty good year before getting injured and is only 23.  To me, you start with Scherzer, Roark, Strasburg and Ross as givens and the question is who #5 should be.  Personally, I'd prefer handing the ball to Lopez, but I definitely understand the point of view of keeping Gio. 

Question, tho about signing and trading Gio.  How much more than 1 yr/12M could he get on the open market?  B/c if one is to project his free market value at something like 1 yr/15 or 2yr/25, does he really have much trade value? 

I agree with much of this Horse-sense. Ross is a nice asset and can easily hold that 3-4 slot if healthy. I don't know if he's unusually bad 3d time through the order, and he's young enough to develop another pitch. 

As for Gio, I'll say that at a minimum, he's looking at 3/$36MM on the open market.  That's the going rate for a #3 starter.  His defense independent pitching stats, which I think are part of a trade or free agency assessment, were much better than his ERA.  There's the velocity decline in his fastball, which is a concern, but his K% didn't change.  He's never going to be 2012 Gio again, but he's a lefty who you slot in as a #3 or #4 to change the look of a righty-heavy rotation and staff, like the Nats have, and gives you a .500 or .500+ record.

[Slateman]

Yea ... I definitely want Rich Hill after last night

[UMDNats]

I know I'm in the minority but I'm not sure I want to let Gio Gonzalez go.  His performance this season stunk but you can plug him for 30 starts and 175 innings. If his ERA goes back towards career norms at all next season then that is a valuable fifth starter. With Strasburg's health and Giolito, Ross, and Lopez still possibly having to deal with innings limits I think it is valuable knowing you have at least three starters (Scherzer, Roark, Gio) who you know will go every five days.

If the big three are all healthy and dealing, Giolito takes a step forward, and Ross/Lopez are dealing and you have a starter crunch that is a good thing then you sit back and you curse dropping all the money on Gonzalez but that is a lot of things that need to go right.

Good post.

[Ray D]

I feel like that would be a rather obtuse trade for the Nats.

Really, a 180 degree transition.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Really, a 180 degree transition.

I'm thinking that DPM posting at 4:55 PM on a Friday, the day after the Nats are eliminated, is the main reason his post did not get more attention.

[DPMOmaha]

I'm thinking that DPM posting at 4:55 PM on a Friday, the day after the Nats are eliminated, is the main reason his post did not get more attention.

Ah, there's the hypotenuse.