Author Topic: NL Division Series: Nationals @ Dodgers, Game 4  (Read 9716 times)

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Offline mitlen

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Re: NL Division Series: Nationals @ Dodgers, Game 4
« Reply #25: October 11, 2016, 12:05:05 PM »
Ross/Kershaw

Offline BrandonK

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Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: NL Division Series: Nationals @ Dodgers, Game 4
« Reply #27: October 11, 2016, 12:07:46 PM »
Ross/Kershaw
Bring it. Let's do this!

Offline mitlen

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Re: NL Division Series: Nationals @ Dodgers, Game 4
« Reply #28: October 11, 2016, 12:08:06 PM »
Brutal...

I'm hopin' Game 1 Clayton shows up ...  and Espi isn't at bat.

Offline RiotAct

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Re: NL Division Series: Nationals @ Dodgers, Game 4
« Reply #29: October 11, 2016, 12:08:10 PM »
We got this.

Offline houston-nat

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Re: NL Division Series: Nationals @ Dodgers, Game 4
« Reply #30: October 11, 2016, 12:09:56 PM »
Load up on lefty innings from Lopez/Rzjoihgweoijf/Perez and we should be OK. Let's go beat the best pitcher on earth.

Offline skippy1999

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Re: NL Division Series: Nationals @ Dodgers, Game 4
« Reply #31: October 11, 2016, 12:10:47 PM »
Brutal...

I don't know, Kershaw wasn't exactly aces the other night and now he's on short rest, not sure I don't like our odds in this one. 

Offline WilyMoP

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Re: NL Division Series: Nationals @ Dodgers, Game 4
« Reply #32: October 11, 2016, 12:15:45 PM »
I like it. Rather face Kershaw on short rest than on full rest in an elimination game.

Offline nfotiu

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Re: NL Division Series: Nationals @ Dodgers, Game 4
« Reply #33: October 11, 2016, 12:19:30 PM »
A lot of things have to go right for the Dodgers to win now, I'd think.   It's kind of a desperate move and definitely plays in our favour.   

Kershaw didn't really look like 100% in game 1.  He just pitched 100 pitches for the first time since June, and they are bringing him out on short rest and burning him for game 5.  They probably aren't even thinking he can go more than 4 or 5 innings unless he is really efficient.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: NL Division Series: Nationals @ Dodgers, Game 4
« Reply #34: October 11, 2016, 12:21:44 PM »
I like it. Rather face Kershaw on short rest than on full rest in an elimination game.
Agree. But I would rather see Max. Couldn't see both him and Tanner coming up small again.

Offline houston-nat

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Re: NL Division Series: Nationals @ Dodgers, Game 4
« Reply #35: October 11, 2016, 12:22:20 PM »
FanGraphs JUST published an article telling the Dodgers NOT to start Kershaw.

"the Dodgers have thrown Kershaw in games one and four of the division series three straight years, bringing him back on three days rest each time."

"while today’s game is obviously critical, the fact remains that the Dodgers have to win their next two games or their season ends. Maximizing your chances of winning today, while hurting your chances of winning on Thursday, could actually lower the team’s chances of advancing to the NLCS, which should be the goal the Dodgers are focused on. Instead of looking at only what improves their odds of winning today, the Dodgers should be asking what gives them the best chance of winning their next two games.

"Starting Kershaw today means you can’t start him in Thursday’s game five, when he would be pitching on full rest. In any scenario where the Dodgers advance, Kershaw will pitch one game, so the team’s decision involves whether they want a short-rest Kershaw or a full-rest Kershaw pitching one of the two games. While Kershaw has pitched well in these scenarios before, the reality remains that history shows that pitchers are less effective on short rest than they are on full rest."

They add that if Kershaw goes today, Rich Hill will ALSO have to pitch on short rest for Game 5, since the Dodgers don't have Greinke anymore. And basically, full rest Kershaw + full rest Urias > short rest Kershaw + short rest Hill.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-dodgers-should-start-julio-urias/

BTW, in those three short rest NLDS game 4s, Kershaw has a 1.98 ERA.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: NL Division Series: Nationals @ Dodgers, Game 4
« Reply #36: October 11, 2016, 12:22:51 PM »
A lot of things have to go right for the Dodgers to win now, I'd think.   It's kind of a desperate move and definitely plays in our favour.   

Kershaw didn't really look like 100% in game 1.  He just pitched 100 pitches for the first time since June, and they are bringing him out on short rest and burning him for game 5.  They probably aren't even thinking he can go more than 4 or 5 innings unless he is really efficient.
It's a desperate move and especially after he threwb100 pitches for the first time in quite a while. Going for potential short term gains over his long term health.

Offline shoeshineboy

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Re: NL Division Series: Nationals @ Dodgers, Game 4
« Reply #37: October 11, 2016, 12:22:59 PM »
He does have a good history of pitching on short rest in the postseason. He is tough, but he can choke if the Nats let him. Need discipline. I like our RH lineup against lefties in general. Need to step on yheir throats. No Game Five, please.

Offline nfotiu

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Re: NL Division Series: Nationals @ Dodgers, Game 4
« Reply #38: October 11, 2016, 12:38:51 PM »
I wonder if we see Roark for an inning or two today? 

Offline Slateman

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Re: NL Division Series: Nationals @ Dodgers, Game 4
« Reply #39: October 11, 2016, 12:45:04 PM »
I wonder if we see Roark for an inning or two today? 

Really early for him to throw. That postponement screwed that up.

I wonder if you tell Scherzer not to throw today and use him for an inning in relief

Offline houston-nat

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Re: NL Division Series: Nationals @ Dodgers, Game 4
« Reply #40: October 11, 2016, 12:57:02 PM »
One thing to remember is their bullpen will not be tired in Game 5. They will be short-handed today.

Offline imref

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Re: NL Division Series: Nationals @ Dodgers, Game 4
« Reply #41: October 11, 2016, 01:03:07 PM »
BTW, in those three short rest NLDS game 4s, Kershaw has a 1.98 ERA.

That's the key point.  I don't think you play for best odds of winning the next two, you play for best odds of winning game 4 because if you don't win game 4, game 5 doesn't matter.  Pitching Kershaw gives them the best odds of winning today.  If they win today then they can worry about Thursday.   Roberts will be in Showalter's boat if he loses game 4 while his best pitcher sits on the bench.

Online dcpatti

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Re: NL Division Series: Nationals @ Dodgers, Game 4
« Reply #42: October 11, 2016, 01:49:58 PM »
It's gonna be polar opposites, we are gonna want to knock out their starter as early as possible and feast in their pen, and they're gonna want us to run with Ross as long as possible so they don't have to mess with our pen.

Offline Slateman

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Re: NL Division Series: Nationals @ Dodgers, Game 4
« Reply #43: October 11, 2016, 02:01:00 PM »
It's gonna be polar opposites, we are gonna want to knock out their starter as early as possible and feast in their pen, and they're gonna want us to run with Ross as long as possible so they don't have to mess with our pen.
Their pen is good. Whatever lead you get off Kershaw, that's all you're getting for the game.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: NL Division Series: Nationals @ Dodgers, Game 4
« Reply #44: October 11, 2016, 02:02:45 PM »
Their pen is good. Whatever lead you get off Kershaw, that's all you're getting for the game.
Their pen was used heavily the last two days. Don't expect them to keep it up. Same to a lesser degree for the Nats.

Online dcpatti

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Re: NL Division Series: Nationals @ Dodgers, Game 4
« Reply #45: October 11, 2016, 02:10:47 PM »
Their pen is good. Whatever lead you get off Kershaw, that's all you're getting for the game.

They used everyone yesterday and everyone but 2 the game before, and everyone but 2 the game before that. They're good players who are exhausted.  Case in point Jansen who is definitely cooked and I'd Imagine off-limits tonight, given his workload and struggles just in this series.

Offline Slateman

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Re: NL Division Series: Nationals @ Dodgers, Game 4
« Reply #46: October 11, 2016, 02:29:21 PM »
Their pen was used heavily the last two days. Don't expect them to keep it up. Same to a lesser degree for the Nats.
They used everyone yesterday and everyone but 2 the game before, and everyone but 2 the game before that. They're good players who are exhausted.  Case in point Jansen who is definitely cooked and I'd Imagine off-limits tonight, given his workload and struggles just in this series.
So was our pen. You can bet those guys will be will be available in a game like this.

Offline imref

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Re: NL Division Series: Nationals @ Dodgers, Game 4
« Reply #47: October 11, 2016, 02:32:33 PM »
NATS:
1. Trea Turner (R) CF
2. Bryce Harper (L) RF
3. Jayson Werth (R) LF
4. Daniel Murphy (L) 2B
5. Anthony Rendon (R) 3B
6. Ryan Zimmerman (R) 1B
7. Danny Espinosa (S) SS
8. Pedro Severino (R) C
9. Joe Ross (R) P

DODGERS
1. Chase Utley (L) 2B
2. Corey Seager (L) SS
3. Justin Turner (R) 3B
4. Adrian Gonzalez (L) 1B
5. Josh Reddick (L) RF
6. Joc Pederson (L) CF
7. Yasmani Grandal (S) C
8. Andrew Toles (L) LF
9. Clayton Kershaw (L) P

The lefties go marching one by one hurrah hurrah...

Offline imref

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Re: NL Division Series: Nationals @ Dodgers, Game 4
« Reply #48: October 11, 2016, 02:34:43 PM »
would much rather have seen Turner/Werth/Murphy/Rendon/Harper/Zimmerman/Severino/Espinosa

Offline Slateman

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Re: NL Division Series: Nationals @ Dodgers, Game 4
« Reply #49: October 11, 2016, 02:34:44 PM »
For some reason, I really like playing Severino