Author Topic: What Would You Do? 3-way tie for Wild Card  (Read 313 times)

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Offline _sturt_

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What Would You Do? 3-way tie for Wild Card
« Topic Start: October 01, 2016, 02:17:51 PM »
http://m.nationals.mlb.com/news/article/199753224/2016-mlb-tiebreaker-scenarios/



Seems to me the odds are more with you to win one away game than to win two consecutive home games. If I recall correctly,  historically the away team wins at a ~.450 pace, whereas that same stat suggests your team has about a .550 shot at winning that first home game, and without bothering to do the math, the regression to the mean is naturally going to make winning that second game substantially less likely.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: What Would You Do? 3-way tie for Wild Card
« Reply #1: October 01, 2016, 03:16:43 PM »
I agree, you take the one away game, unless there's other factors like a big distance to travel or dodging tough starting pitching.

Offline WerthHisWeight

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Re: What Would You Do? 3-way tie for Wild Card
« Reply #2: October 01, 2016, 04:32:49 PM »
Definitely opt for the bye in the "first round".  No team in their right minds would opt to have to win twice versus once.

Offline Mathguy

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Re: What Would You Do? 3-way tie for Wild Card
« Reply #3: October 02, 2016, 01:15:33 PM »
This could be the first time I can remember where MLB is rooting for/with Peter Angelos

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: What Would You Do? 3-way tie for Wild Card
« Reply #4: October 02, 2016, 02:03:11 PM »
The Mariners lost last night so they were knocked out, unfortunately... too bad.... would enjoy some chaos!