Follow the Prospects: Dane Dunning, P

[imref]

Drafted in the supplemental first round of the 2016 draft (#29 - Compensation for Ian Desmond).  Signed for a $2 million bonus.

Bio:
RHP
6-3, 200
University of Florida
Born 1995
From Flemin Island, FL

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/5/16/11683250/2016-mlb-draft-dane-dunning-rhp-university-of-florida

The 6-3 205 right-hander has pitched out of the bullpen a majority of the season with 19 of his 24 appearances coming out of the bullpen. Dunning has been effective as a reliever this year with a 2.30 ERA as a reliever compared to a 3.04 ERA as a starter (Stats are as of May 14th). While he has had success as a reliever in 2016, scouts feel his game will translate well as a starter at the next level. He has an excellent 67/9 K/BB in 54 innings overall.

Dunning has a fluid motion starting at the hip, continuing to bring his hands up, and followed by a late breaking of the hands. The late break of the hands allows Dunning to hold the ball longer and hide the ball from the hitter. His mechanics remind me of Zack Wheeler. His fastball is consistent at 93 and 94, but as a reliever he will max out at 96 since he is only in the game for a short time.

Dunning’s changeup is the better of his off speed pitches when compared with his breaking ball. His breaking ball is in the low 80's with an11-5 spin. The breaking ball still needs work. He has a tendency to keep it up in the zone and get in trouble, but once he fixes that he will have an even more impressive three pitch mix.

Dunning, currently ranked 60th in mlb.com’s top 100, may be heading towards a second round selection. The knock on Dunning of his breaking ball is one that is not an issue that is not going to hold him back for long at the next level. Overall, when combining his fluid motion, early to mid 90’s fastball, good changeup, Dunning has the tools to be a middle to back end of the rotation starter.

! No longer available

[imref]

8/4 update from dcprosportsreport.com

Assigned to the GCL Nationals and promoted to Auburn. He made a combined 4 starts  and has posted an 0-1 record.  In 11.2 innings, Dunning has only allowed 9 hits, 5 runs, 2 walks, and has fanned 11 batters.  He has a WHIP of 0.94 and has posted a an ERA of 3.86.

[Glockypoo]

I really like Dunning. As much as a first round pick can be a surprise, I think Dunning will be just that from our 2016 haul.

[BrandonK]

I really like Dunning. As much as a first round pick can be a surprise, I think Dunning will be just that from our 2016 haul.

I know a lot of people do like him, but I worry about the stuff playing down as a SP. Velo is good as a RP, but expect a few ticks downwards while he learns to stretch 5-7 innings.

[Glockypoo]

I know a lot of people do like him, but I worry about the stuff playing down as a SP. Velo is good as a RP, but expect a few ticks downwards while he learns to stretch 5-7 innings.

Yep, that's the issue with him. But if he can build up his endurance, watch out.

At worst I think he's a high leverage bullpen guy at the big league level.

[BrandonK]

At worst I think he's a high leverage bullpen guy at the big league level.

So Drew Storen?

[BrandonK]

I'm being facetious. I know a lot of people really like Dunning. I just would've liked a higher upside pick with the 1st rounder. Dunning is a very safe pick.

[Glockypoo]

So Drew Storen?

Their profiles are similar but the Nats never tried stretching Drew out, did they? I know there was some buzz when he was drafted out of Stanford that he could start but I believe he was in the pen from day one.

[BrandonK]

Their profiles are similar but the Nats never tried stretching Drew out, did they? I know there was some buzz when he was drafted out of Stanford that he could start but I believe he was in the pen from day one.

Nope, he ran through the system as RP.

[Glockypoo]

I'm being facetious. I know a lot of people really like Dunning. I just would've liked a higher upside pick with the 1st rounder. Dunning is a very safe pick.

I hear ya. I just think he has a higher upside than most think.

Now, if he started out in Auburn in the pen I'd be with ya. That would annoy me being he was a first round pick.

[Elvir Ovcina]

So Drew Storen?

Drew Storen's problem has always been his head, not his stuff.  But in any case, the better theoretical comp here is Clippard - apparently questionable as a starter with control problems on breaking ball but a good change. 

I'm being facetious. I know a lot of people really like Dunning. I just would've liked a higher upside pick with the 1st rounder. Dunning is a very safe pick.

It's a reasonable pick given the two recent 1st rounders on TJ-recovery starters and a later-round pick on a high-upside, above-slot TJ-recovery starter this year.

I hear ya. I just think he has a higher upside than most think.

Now, if he started out in Auburn in the pen I'd be with ya. That would annoy me being he was a first round pick.

I'm not as big a fan as most of trying to turn college relievers into starters, regardless of the talent level of the guys around them in college.  I have one very specific recollection of a major-conference college reliever who was absolutely ridiculous as a reliever in the NYP, was then turned into a starter, and had about the most generic, nondescript MLB possible given his stuff.  Things like that stick with you.

[BrandonK]

It's a reasonable pick given the two recent 1st rounders on TJ-recovery starters and a later-round pick on a high-upside, above-slot TJ-recovery starter this year.

I'm not as big a fan as most of trying to turn college relievers into starters, regardless of the talent level of the guys around them in college.  I have one very specific recollection of a major-conference college reliever who was absolutely ridiculous as a reliever in the NYP, was then turned into a starter, and had about the most generic, nondescript MLB possible given his stuff.  Things like that stick with you.

I agree, and some scouts seemed to really like the pick too.

Also agree on the second part, though. I'm just not a fan of college RPs transitioning to starters.

[BrandonK]

Dunning hasn't thrown since 8/7. Shut down?

[Truconfidence]

Dunning hasn't thrown since 8/7. Shut down?

Probably because he pitched a full college season.

[BrandonK]

Probably because he pitched a full college season.

As a RP (and also only 78 innings pitched).

I guess he was not shut down -- the game was just called off due to rain (hence the MiLB site not showing his box). That was 8/13: 3 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 5 K


They've had a couple rainouts, so I'm guessing the rotation was messed around with and he'll be pitching again sometime soon (doubleheader today...)

[BrandonK]

Finally got a chance to pitch.

5 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K.

Nice

[GuyFromCO]

Good luck! Wasn't very high on him