I still don't understand this point of view.
Okay, people make the point that the only guys who don't opt out are guys who get injured/start to suck. Well yeah, but aren't all baseball contracts fully guaranteed, besides the odd option year? So even if there isn't an opt out, you're not insured against having to pay the albatross contract of a pitcher who gets injured.
And second, who's to say it'll make sense for the Nats to re-sign him in 3/4 years? There are plenty of scenarios I could envision where you let a 30/31 year old pitcher walk instead of re-signing him. All you need it pitcher development, team regression, or a combination of both to make it make sense.
Third, what's the alternative - that we DON'T SIGN HIM AT ALL? That's BETTER?
Agreed. I think this is a creative contract that has risk and reward on both sides, but is generally favorable to the player. I still don't think he gets 7 yr at 250 on the open market with opt outs. He may have been the big FA pitcher out there, but he has never been Cy Young, rarely pitched past the 7th, had TJ, back issues, and a total of one playoff appearance. People love his stuff, but a lot of teams would factor those things in compared to the other pitchers on the list of contracts with greater AAV. I think he would have gotten more, but not necessarily that much more. The opt outs are a huge incentive for him to sign this deal. It pays him big, protects him against injury later in the year that would certainly impact his offseason market value, and provides him with a chance to jump and strike it rich elsewhere if he ends up dominating for years and can get 35M a year elsewhere, or simply wants to get a ring.
It is a good deal for both sides to have longer-term visibility and flexibility. I like it. It is a good commitment and allows them to structure something similar for Harper (which they need to do.) It also puts some pressure on the franchise to continue to invest in success so guys don't take the opt outs.
They also had to be looking at the fact that they are likely to have guys like Giolito, Ross, and Turner on the cheap for years to come.