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Author Topic: FiveThirtyEight predictions  (Read 794 times)

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Offline _sturt_

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FiveThirtyEight predictions
« Topic Start: April 26, 2016, 12:21:20 AM »
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Offline houston-nat

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Re: FiveThirtyEight predictions
« Reply #1: April 26, 2016, 08:15:17 AM »
Mets' "rating" is higher but our expected finish is higher.

This must be pretty volatile - I saw the chart before the Mets played yesterday, and our order was flipped.
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Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: FiveThirtyEight predictions
« Reply #2: April 26, 2016, 08:19:30 AM »
Of course this is all based on past data extrapolated to the future. Human performance doesn't usually follow that course.
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Offline tomterp

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Re: FiveThirtyEight predictions
« Reply #3: April 26, 2016, 09:03:14 AM »
Quote from: houston-nat on April 26, 2016, 08:15:17 AM
Mets' "rating" is higher but our expected finish is higher.

This must be pretty volatile - I saw the chart before the Mets played yesterday, and our order was flipped.

Yeah, something's fishy about that.
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Offline BrandonK

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Re: FiveThirtyEight predictions
« Reply #4: April 26, 2016, 09:32:49 AM »
Uh oh... not again
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Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: FiveThirtyEight predictions
« Reply #5: April 26, 2016, 09:52:38 AM »
I'd love to see them include a margin of error or some kind of confidence measure, but it would probably be large enough for people to see how ridiculous the whole exercise is
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Offline houston-nat

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Re: FiveThirtyEight predictions
« Reply #6: April 26, 2016, 10:32:08 AM »
If you click deeper, you see probabilities for each game. Includes team rating, pitcher rating, and bonus scores for home field, rest, etc.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-mlb-predictions/nationals/
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Offline welch

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Re: FiveThirtyEight predictions
« Reply #7: April 30, 2016, 07:10:21 PM »
Cardinals announcers today said the Nats are "A really good team". Good lineup and surprising bullpen. "Treinen and Rivero...throwing high-90s...where did they come from?" Of course, that was bottom of the 9th inning with the Nats leading 6 - 1.

I want to hear more blather about how the Mets are certain to win the NL East and probably the Series. Isn't Matt Harvey the greatest pitcher since Bob Feller?
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