Author Topic: DC Strangler Fan Club  (Read 21243 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline PC

  • Posts: 47236
Re: Papelbon Deviants Fan Club
« Reply #125: May 04, 2016, 11:09:20 AM »
Stating the obvious, Papelbon is the  reason we lost this game.  Another reliever or combination of relievers could have closed out the 9th with us still in the lead.  If Papelbon not blowing up the clubhouse wasn't an issue and we didn't have a designated closer, this game would have been won.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 24640
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: Papelbon Deviants Fan Club
« Reply #126: May 04, 2016, 11:37:16 AM »
Stating the obvious, Papelbon is the  reason we lost this game.  Another reliever or combination of relievers could have closed out the 9th with us still in the lead.  If Papelbon not blowing up the clubhouse wasn't an issue and we didn't have a designated closer, this game would have been won.
Frankly, we don't know what another pitcher would have done had he been brought in at the start of the 9th or midway after a couple of hits.  We do know Papelbon blew it.  The real question is whether Papelbon has shown enough at this point not to be given additional closing opportunities and who should be given those opportunities in his place.  If that means shifting Treinen or Rivero into that role, are you losing more by not having them available in fireman / relief ace situations earlier in the  ballgame (runners on, smaller leads, tougher hitters)?  I really prefer having no designated closer and using the best guys in the toughest situations.

Offline PC

  • Posts: 47236
Re: Papelbon Deviants Fan Club
« Reply #127: May 04, 2016, 11:54:12 AM »
Frankly, we don't know what another pitcher would have done had he been brought in at the start of the 9th or midway after a couple of hits.  We do know Papelbon blew it.  The real question is whether Papelbon has shown enough at this point not to be given additional closing opportunities and who should be given those opportunities in his place.  If that means shifting Treinen or Rivero into that role, are you losing more by not having them available in fireman / relief ace situations earlier in the  ballgame (runners on, smaller leads, tougher hitters)?  I really prefer having no designated closer and using the best guys in the toughest situations.

My point was, in this case, the exact three batters who faced him on Monday, started the inning on Tuesday.  For a reliever will less than stellar stuff, that's not good.  The hitters are getting a second bite at the apple.  You never want to do that with a closer with lukewarm stuff.  With a closer by committee, Papelbon wouldn't even have gotten warmed up.

Yes, the same thing might have happened with a closer by committee that happened last night but the process would have been much better and the process is all you can control.

Offline BrandonK

  • Posts: 8175
  • #LOLNats
Re: Papelbon Deviants Fan Club
« Reply #128: May 04, 2016, 11:59:06 AM »
Frankly, we don't know what another pitcher would have done had he been brought in at the start of the 9th or midway after a couple of hits.  We do know Papelbon blew it.  The real question is whether Papelbon has shown enough at this point not to be given additional closing opportunities and who should be given those opportunities in his place.  If that means shifting Treinen or Rivero into that role, are you losing more by not having them available in fireman / relief ace situations earlier in the  ballgame (runners on, smaller leads, tougher hitters)?  I really prefer having no designated closer and using the best guys in the toughest situations.

There's plenty of young arms I'd like to see get a shot in the BP. Hell, end the Cole experiment as a SP and make him a RP -- he'll be better than Treinen.

Offline imref

  • Posts: 25310
  • 1B: The New Hot Corner
Re: Papelbon Deviants Fan Club
« Reply #129: May 04, 2016, 12:07:38 PM »
paps is 9 for 11 so far, one of his blown saves was to arguably the best team in baseball.

Extrapolate that and he ends up at something like 36 for 44, or around a save rate of 82% (that's probably being too negative, but who knows).  That puts him well below average considering top closers have save rates in the low 90's.  Of pitchers with at least 8 opportunities, he's tied with Tolleson with two blown saves.  Kimbrell has blown 1 of his 8 chances.

So yeah, there's cause for concern, but I don't think i'd pull the plug yet given his performance was north of 90% the last two years.


Offline skippy1999

  • Posts: 15473
  • #saveus
Re: Papelbon Deviants Fan Club
« Reply #130: May 04, 2016, 12:22:05 PM »
So yeah, there's cause for concern, but I don't think i'd pull the plug yet given his performance was north of 90% the last two years.

But he is in his mid-30's and appears to be in decline; short of chemical help what are the odds he can go back to being the pitcher he was even 2 years ago?  :shrug:

Offline Ali the Baseball Cat

  • Posts: 14445
  • babble on
Re: Papelbon Deviants Fan Club
« Reply #131: May 04, 2016, 12:34:09 PM »
nil

Offline welch

  • Posts: 12033
Re: Cut Papelbon Fan Club
« Reply #132: May 04, 2016, 02:46:05 PM »
It was about 10:30 and the Nats had a three run lead in the 8th. I thought, "We've got this. It's safe". Went to sleep confident that I'd wake up to another Nats win. Headline, though: "Papelbon blows lead, save, and game", more or less.

Yes, Papelbon reminds me of Soriano...and not the Soriano who used to play 2B for the Yankees...although maybe Al-fon-zo would have done better against the Royals.

Offline PowerBoater69

  • Posts: 11901
    • Twitter
Re: Cut Papelbon Fan Club
« Reply #133: May 04, 2016, 02:49:16 PM »
But he is in his mid-30's and appears to be in decline; short of chemical help what are the odds he can go back to being the pitcher he was even 2 years ago?  :shrug:

What is his risk/reward for juicing? Risks $5.5 million, lowers demand for next year, and damages reputation.  Potential benefits are helping the team advance and another eight figure contract for next year(s). I say go for it.

Offline HalfSmokes

  • Posts: 19140
Re: Cut Papelbon Fan Club
« Reply #134: May 04, 2016, 03:58:01 PM »
What is his risk/reward for juicing? Risks $5.5 million, lowers demand for next year, and damages reputation.  Potential benefits are helping the team advance and another eight figure contract for next year(s). I say go for it.

Risk, $5.5 million, reward maybe (but not likely if this off-season is any indication) get another decent deal and help a team you may not even like win a couple more games- maybe I'm just risk adverse, but why bother juicing if you're paps

Offline dcpatti

  • Posts: 2456
Re: Cut Papelbon Fan Club
« Reply #135: May 04, 2016, 04:33:12 PM »
If Pap is juicing, it would explain the anger management problem and the tiny tiny balls.

Offline whytev

  • Posts: 8768
Re: Cut Papelbon Fan Club
« Reply #136: May 04, 2016, 07:15:53 PM »
It was about 10:30 and the Nats had a three run lead in the 8th. I thought, "We've got this. It's safe". Went to sleep confident that I'd wake up to another Nats win. Headline, though: "Papelbon blows lead, save, and game", more or less.

Yes, Papelbon reminds me of Soriano...and not the Soriano who used to play 2B for the Yankees...although maybe Al-fon-zo would have done better against the Royals.

I watched the game on delay because I was playing a game. Feed cut out after 8. I just grabbed my phone to see the final score and big letdown!

Offline Mathguy

  • Posts: 7386
  • Whoa That Was A Good One ! Poke His Brain Here !
    • Outer Banks Beach House
Re: Cut Papelbon Fan Club
« Reply #137: May 20, 2016, 07:45:49 AM »
Papelbon is improving as the season goes on - let's hope it continues

Offline Baseball is Life

  • Posts: 16681
  • Proud member of the Sunshine Squad.
Re: Cut Papelbon Fan Club
« Reply #138: May 20, 2016, 08:40:17 AM »
Papelbon is improving as the season goes on - let's hope it continues

Meh. He's still a douchebag. ;)

Seriously, I don't know how he gets hitters out. Last night his fastball was sitting at 89-90. I guess it really is about movement and location. Me, I prefer closers with better swing and miss stuff.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 24640
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: Cut Papelbon Fan Club
« Reply #139: May 20, 2016, 09:02:13 AM »
There is a bit of smoke and mirrors to his performance.  He's gotten by with high strand rates since 2012, which makes you nervous in a Chad Cordero way.  He's throwing fewer strikes than in 2015. He's not drawing as many swings outside the zone, which leads to a spike in his walk rate and WHIP, and a drop in his swinging strike rate.  He's actually drawing fewer swings at his in strike zone pitches - the smoke and mirrors aspect.  That is a good thing if you aren't getting swings and misses, too (highest in zone contact rate of his career).

Somebody help me on reading his Pitch/fx velocity chart - it looks like he's throwing what they call a 2 seamer harder than in the past and his 4 seamer is slower.  Not throwing the 2-seamer anywhere near as frequently as in his 1st 2 years in Philly.  Seems he is getting less soft contact but also less hard contact.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5975&position=P

While you may think he is an idiot about everything else in life, this guy seems to be pretty sharp, knows his stuff, and adjusts.  Veteran grittiness, or smoke and mirrors.

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 42358
Re: Cut Papelbon Fan Club
« Reply #140: May 20, 2016, 09:26:41 AM »
There is a bit of smoke and mirrors to his performance.  He's gotten by with high strand rates since 2012, which makes you nervous in a Chad Cordero way.  He's throwing fewer strikes than in 2015. He's not drawing as many swings outside the zone, which leads to a spike in his walk rate and WHIP, and a drop in his swinging strike rate.  He's actually drawing fewer swings at his in strike zone pitches - the smoke and mirrors aspect.  That is a good thing if you aren't getting swings and misses, too (highest in zone contact rate of his career).

Somebody help me on reading his Pitch/fx velocity chart - it looks like he's throwing what they call a 2 seamer harder than in the past and his 4 seamer is slower.  Not throwing the 2-seamer anywhere near as frequently as in his 1st 2 years in Philly.  Seems he is getting less soft contact but also less hard contact.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5975&position=P

While you may think he is an idiot about everything else in life, this guy seems to be pretty sharp, knows his stuff, and adjusts.  Veteran grittiness, or smoke and mirrors.
Honestly, you can't differentiate his four seamer from his two seamer and he probably has a bit of a split to both at this point in his career. They're all pretty much mixed in and he's probably mixing up velocities in an attempt to deceive hitters, as his breaking stuff sucks right now.

Smoke and mirrors is fine, but I just get a Soriano vibe off him.

Offline aspenbubba

  • Posts: 3857
Re: Cut Papelbon Fan Club
« Reply #141: May 20, 2016, 09:45:56 AM »
Asking for some help. What does the pitch do differently when a 2 seamer is thrown than what a 4 seamer does? Is it the same as the difference between a cutter and a slider? Thanks

Offline dracnal

  • Posts: 1065
Re: Cut Papelbon Fan Club
« Reply #142: May 20, 2016, 09:50:49 AM »
Pretty sure a 2 seamer tends to have more break/movement to it while a 4 seamer is straighter (and typically faster). But, that'd be in the category of 'Things I learned about baseball playing The Show,' so it could be totally wrong.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

  • Posts: 1983
Re: Cut Papelbon Fan Club
« Reply #143: May 20, 2016, 10:10:18 AM »
Asking for some help. What does the pitch do differently when a 2 seamer is thrown than what a 4 seamer does? Is it the same as the difference between a cutter and a slider? Thanks

No, it's not the difference between a cutter and a slider.  A 2-seamer is thrown the same as a 4-seamer but with your hand placed differently on the ball (I don't actually know how to describe this well over the web without writing a paragraph; it's very easy to demonstrate in person).  Depending on how hard you press on the ball with your fingers, how far forward you put your thumb, and how much backspin you have on it, a 2 seamer will generally run in a bit on same-side batters and have a little bit of sink to it.  The downside is you lose a couple MPH. 

Cutters, unlike sliders, don't have the classic breaking-ball arm snap.  The arm action is pure fastball.  The grip is just off-center, almost a slider grip if the pitcher has small hands.  Cutters move laterally and quite sharply (towards opposite-side hitters), but don't have the vertical break that sliders do.  They also, if thrown well, create pitch-recognition problems for hitters because the spin won't be visibly different than a fastball, but they still move fairly significantly laterally and with a very late, much sharper movement in the opposite direction from a 2-seamer (and without much sink, usually).  You don't see the giveaway dot on the ball where curves and sliders rotate on a tilted axis, so it looks like a fastball to a hitter.

Offline aspenbubba

  • Posts: 3857
Re: Cut Papelbon Fan Club
« Reply #144: May 20, 2016, 10:28:17 AM »
No, it's not the difference between a cutter and a slider.  A 2-seamer is thrown the same as a 4-seamer but with your hand placed differently on the ball (I don't actually know how to describe this well over the web without writing a paragraph; it's very easy to demonstrate in person).  Depending on how hard you press on the ball with your fingers, how far forward you put your thumb, and how much backspin you have on it, a 2 seamer will generally run in a bit on same-side batters and have a little bit of sink to it.  The downside is you lose a couple MPH. 

Cutters, unlike sliders, don't have the classic breaking-ball arm snap.  The arm action is pure fastball.  The grip is just off-center, almost a slider grip if the pitcher has small hands.  Cutters move laterally and quite sharply (towards opposite-side hitters), but don't have the vertical break that sliders do.  They also, if thrown well, create pitch-recognition problems for hitters because the spin won't be visibly different than a fastball, but they still move fairly significantly laterally and with a very late, much sharper movement in the opposite direction from a 2-seamer (and without much sink, usually).  You don't see the giveaway dot on the ball where curves and sliders rotate on a tilted axis, so it looks like a fastball to a hitter.

Thanks

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 24640
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: Cut Papelbon Fan Club
« Reply #145: May 20, 2016, 10:36:01 AM »
I think that, in contrast to a 2 seamer, and 4 seam fastball appears to rise relative to the expected flight of the ball in a vacuum with just gravity working on it.  It is still sinking relative to the release point, but less than what the eye expects. 

That right?

Offline Elvir Ovcina

  • Posts: 1983
Re: Cut Papelbon Fan Club
« Reply #146: May 20, 2016, 10:42:46 AM »
I think that, in contrast to a 2 seamer, and 4 seam fastball appears to rise relative to the expected flight of the ball in a vacuum with just gravity working on it.  It is still sinking relative to the release point, but less than what the eye expects. 

That right?

Yes, but after you've seen enough fastballs, it doesn't matter much anymore - what matters with any particular pitcher is what the movement is relative to a normal pitcher's fastball. 

Offline BrandonK

  • Posts: 8175
  • #LOLNats
Re: Cut Papelbon Fan Club
« Reply #147: May 20, 2016, 10:45:16 AM »
2-seamers do tend to move left or right a bit more (based on your throwing arm), as EO said. Here's where they get their names: on a 4 seamer you grip the seams across (gripping "4" seams). 2 seamer, you grip along the seams (gripping "2" seams).

A slider (I always tried to throw a good one but never could) is gripped with the index finger on one side of the seam and the middle finger on the other side of the same seam. It's thrown like a fastball in most cases.

I threw a circle change when I could. Imagine an '0' with your thumb and index finger that runs along the seam. Also thrown like a fastball.

BTW, I was never a great pitcher, but I bet there's some on here that were that can give you a much better run down! A Google search of grips should give you some results.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

  • Posts: 1983
Re: Cut Papelbon Fan Club
« Reply #148: May 20, 2016, 10:51:13 AM »
A slider (I always tried to throw a good one but never could) is gripped with the index finger on one side of the seam and the middle finger on the other side of the same seam. It's thrown like a fastball in most cases.

If you were throwing a slider like a fastball, that might have been your problem.  Turn the doorknob.  Just not too much or you'll need Tommy John.

Offline BrandonK

  • Posts: 8175
  • #LOLNats
Re: Cut Papelbon Fan Club
« Reply #149: May 20, 2016, 10:57:14 AM »
If you were throwing a slider like a fastball, that might have been your problem.  Turn the doorknob.  Just not too much or you'll need Tommy John.

Yeah, mine was more of a sidearm action, but I could never get it down. No command on any pitches anyways  :hysterical: :hysterical: :hysterical:

I've always read that you want to break it just like you said (a little flick of the wrist), but still keep the motion and release angle close to your FB's