Author Topic: Follow the Prospects: Juan Soto, OF  (Read 6382 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline houston-nat

  • Posts: 18981
Re: Follow the Prospects: Juan Soto, OF
« Reply #50: May 03, 2017, 09:40:09 AM »
The KATOH projection system at FanGraphs ranks Soto the #1 most improved hitting prospect of the year so far.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/katohs-most-improved-hitting-prospects-so-far/

"Soto destroyed the GCL last year, prompting the Nats to send him to full-season ball at the age of 18. An 18-year-old in the Sally League is noteworthy in and of itself. An 18-year-old striking out at a 9% clip while also hitting for some power is the stuff of a blue-chip prospect. If he continues to rake, he’ll likely be place highly on midseason lists."

Offline NJ Ave

  • Posts: 2979
Re: Follow the Prospects: Juan Soto, OF
« Reply #51: May 03, 2017, 10:34:14 AM »
I'm gonna be pretty salty if we trade away premium position prospects for RP this season, to bolster - I'm gonna be pretty dark here - a team that has had the talent to win a World Series for 4 years and has underachieved every year.

This team has the talent to win, and if they want to choke another playoff series away there aren't enough RP out there that can stop them. Meanwhile, the team would be trading away young guys who are doing REALLY well like Robles, Kieboom, Stevenson, Soto who are potentially the core of a lineup that DOES NOT CHOKE.

I understand people disagreeing if they believe that we have a 2-year window, but I just don't think that's the case. I believe we'll only have a 2-year window if we trade away the really premium prospects we have left for RP, and I'm not sure the core of this team has done enough in the playoffs to warrant that kind of further investment.

In my opinion it's time to man up, use all the talent on this roster, and freaking win. Not spend another year jettisoning future talent and making excuses.

Offline imref

  • Posts: 24146
  • 1B: The New Hot Corner
Re: Follow the Prospects: Juan Soto, OF
« Reply #52: May 03, 2017, 11:29:17 AM »
I'm gonna be pretty salty if we trade away premium position prospects for RP this season, to bolster - I'm gonna be pretty dark here - a team that has had the talent to win a World Series for 4 years and has underachieved every year.

This team has the talent to win, and if they want to choke another playoff series away there aren't enough RP out there that can stop them. Meanwhile, the team would be trading away young guys who are doing REALLY well like Robles, Kieboom, Stevenson, Soto who are potentially the core of a lineup that DOES NOT CHOKE.

I understand people disagreeing if they believe that we have a 2-year window, but I just don't think that's the case. I believe we'll only have a 2-year window if we trade away the really premium prospects we have left for RP, and I'm not sure the core of this team has done enough in the playoffs to warrant that kind of further investment.

In my opinion it's time to man up, use all the talent on this roster, and freaking win. Not spend another year jettisoning future talent and making excuses.

we've got a bit of a jam in the OF.  There's one open slot next year, presumably filled by Robles or Stevenson.  If Harper leaves in 2019, that opens another.  If we extend him, we've got Eaton and Harper at the corners through the end of 2021, if Robles is in CF, there's no room for Soto or Stevenson, so one of them is trade bait.

Kieboom is probably not here until 2019 when he could potentially step in for Rendon at 3rd (moving Rendon to 2b) or take over 2b from Murphy, so I'd be more reluctant to trade him.    But at this point, I wouldn't have any problem with trading Soto or Stevenson for a RP who could help us now.

Offline zimm_da_kid

  • Posts: 6921
  • Show me Otani
Re: Follow the Prospects: Juan Soto, OF
« Reply #53: May 03, 2017, 02:21:09 PM »
Deep breath.  He's 2 levels away from AA and he's not even 100 PAs into the season.  If he hits .300 with power in the Carolina League, sure, but we're a long way from that. 

The KATOH projection system at FanGraphs ranks Soto the #1 most improved hitting prospect of the year so far.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/katohs-most-improved-hitting-prospects-so-far/

"Soto destroyed the GCL last year, prompting the Nats to send him to full-season ball at the age of 18. An 18-year-old in the Sally League is noteworthy in and of itself. An 18-year-old striking out at a 9% clip while also hitting for some power is the stuff of a blue-chip prospect. If he continues to rake, he’ll likely be place highly on midseason lists."

any more thoughts Elvir?

Offline zimm_da_kid

  • Posts: 6921
  • Show me Otani
Re: Follow the Prospects: Juan Soto, OF
« Reply #54: May 03, 2017, 07:16:55 PM »
FWIT, with recent prospect graduations, Sot is now #100 on MLB.com's top 100

Offline Truconfidence

  • Posts: 2759
Re: Follow the Prospects: Juan Soto, OF
« Reply #55: May 03, 2017, 10:37:27 PM »
we've got a bit of a jam in the OF.  There's one open slot next year, presumably filled by Robles or Stevenson.  If Harper leaves in 2019, that opens another.  If we extend him, we've got Eaton and Harper at the corners through the end of 2021, if Robles is in CF, there's no room for Soto or Stevenson, so one of them is trade bait.

Kieboom is probably not here until 2019 when he could potentially step in for Rendon at 3rd (moving Rendon to 2b) or take over 2b from Murphy, so I'd be more reluctant to trade him.    But at this point, I wouldn't have any problem with trading Soto or Stevenson for a RP who could help us now.
ok with trading Stevenson but not Soto at all.

Offline AR

  • Posts: 24
Re: Follow the Prospects: Juan Soto, OF
« Reply #56: May 05, 2017, 08:55:36 AM »
Do not trade Soto or Robles. They are both the future OF's. I just do not want to trade another prospect. We gave up 3 big ones. Have to assume that Harper will walk away, Werth next year so we need OF's. Worse case scenario we bring them slowly and if they perform well then we trade Eaton but more likely not before another 3 years. Who knows if Rendon will stay or not. Boras as agent for Harper and Rendon does not look good...
Is Soto injured? He did not play the last two games (if I m correct).

Offline Truconfidence

  • Posts: 2759
Re: Follow the Prospects: Juan Soto, OF
« Reply #57: May 05, 2017, 08:59:58 AM »
Do not trade Soto or Robles. They are both the future OF's. I just do not want to trade another prospect. We gave up 3 big ones. Have to assume that Harper will walk away, Werth next year so we need OF's. Worse case scenario we bring them slowly and if they perform well then we trade Eaton but more likely not before another 3 years. Who knows if Rendon will stay or not. Boras as agent for Harper and Rendon does not look good...
Is Soto injured? He did not play the last two games (if I m correct).
yes he is but it is minor. tweeked a knee. sliding into home on the 7 day dl but not expected to be out more than that

Offline AR

  • Posts: 24
Re: Follow the Prospects: Juan Soto, OF
« Reply #58: May 05, 2017, 09:34:58 AM »
Thanks. At least Robles is back until the next HBP...!

Offline Elvir Ovcina

  • Posts: 1768
Re: Follow the Prospects: Juan Soto, OF
« Reply #59: May 05, 2017, 10:01:54 AM »
any more thoughts Elvir?

Yeah.  He's doing well, which is good, but a ton can happen between the Sally League and any league that matters.  He looks like a very good prospect at 18.  So did Lucas Giolito.  He's also now injured, so we'll see how soon he's back, and hopefully it's not long.

Offline NJ Ave

  • Posts: 2979
Re: Follow the Prospects: Juan Soto, OF
« Reply #60: May 05, 2017, 11:04:46 AM »
Yeah.  He's doing well, which is good, but a ton can happen between the Sally League and any league that matters.  He looks like a very good prospect at 18.  So did Lucas Giolito.  He's also now injured, so we'll see how soon he's back, and hopefully it's not long.


Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 23848
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: Follow the Prospects: Juan Soto, OF
« Reply #61: May 05, 2017, 11:41:40 AM »
Does anyone think that the combo of his distance from the majors and his potential makes him very likely to be included in a major trade before next spring?

Offline Elvir Ovcina

  • Posts: 1768
Re: Follow the Prospects: Juan Soto, OF
« Reply #62: May 05, 2017, 12:02:11 PM »
Does anyone think that the combo of his distance from the majors and his potential makes him very likely to be included in a major trade before next spring?

No; probably the reverse, actually.  The potential ceiling is too high to trade him and the distance is too large for anyone to give reasonable value for him even with that potential. 

Offline zimm_da_kid

  • Posts: 6921
  • Show me Otani
Re: Follow the Prospects: Juan Soto, OF
« Reply #63: May 05, 2017, 01:16:52 PM »
No; probably the reverse, actually.  The potential ceiling is too high to trade him and the distance is too large for anyone to give reasonable value for him even with that potential. 

unless, of course, one team values him really highly even though he's far away.  kind of like the As did when they traded josh Donaldson for a package headlined by franklin barreto.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

  • Posts: 1768
Re: Follow the Prospects: Juan Soto, OF
« Reply #64: May 05, 2017, 01:33:46 PM »
unless, of course, one team values him really highly even though he's far away.  kind of like the As did when they traded josh Donaldson for a package headlined by franklin barreto.

 Barreto was one part of it, but Graveman and Lawrie were more important at the time.  Point is that Barreto would be worth more value than that now because he seems to be working out - if the A's wanted to trade him now, they couldn't trade him straight up for Donaldson, but they'd get a lot more than 1/4 of Donaldson.

Offline Truconfidence

  • Posts: 2759
Re: Follow the Prospects: Juan Soto, OF
« Reply #65: May 05, 2017, 03:19:08 PM »
Does anyone think that the combo of his distance from the majors and his potential makes him very likely to be included in a major trade before next spring?
if we trade him it better be to acquire a big time bat. the reports are he is the most advanced hitting prospect in awhile. Has excellnt plate discipline, also pop which could develop to 30HR pop.

Offline NJ Ave

  • Posts: 2979
Re: Follow the Prospects: Juan Soto, OF
« Reply #66: May 05, 2017, 03:47:42 PM »
if we trade him it better be to acquire a big time bat. the reports are he is the most advanced hitting prospect in awhile. Has excellnt plate discipline, also pop which could develop to 30HR pop.

He still hasn't hit below .360 at a level yet, across three minor league levels, including 96 plate appearances this season in low-A. I don't know how you could be a less risky prospect at such a low level of the minors. He's only struck out 8 times this season. It's really, really hard to end up not being fairly valuable if you strike out that infrequently.

If you look at the list of qualified major league hitters sorted by lowest K-rate...its a pretty good list to be on unless you're a light-hitting middle infielder :)

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=10,a

It's a far more translatable skill than raw power, I would think.

Offline imref

  • Posts: 24146
  • 1B: The New Hot Corner
Re: Follow the Prospects: Juan Soto, OF
« Reply #67: May 05, 2017, 03:53:00 PM »
He might be better than Schrock. 

Offline NJ Ave

  • Posts: 2979
Re: Follow the Prospects: Juan Soto, OF
« Reply #68: May 05, 2017, 04:00:43 PM »
He might be better than Schrock. 

Impossible.

Offline Truconfidence

  • Posts: 2759
Re: Follow the Prospects: Juan Soto, OF
« Reply #69: May 05, 2017, 04:16:20 PM »
He still hasn't hit below .360 at a level yet, across three minor league levels, including 96 plate appearances this season in low-A. I don't know how you could be a less risky prospect at such a low level of the minors. He's only struck out 8 times this season. It's really, really hard to end up not being fairly valuable if you strike out that infrequently.

If you look at the list of qualified major league hitters sorted by lowest K-rate...its a pretty good list to be on unless you're a light-hitting middle infielder :)

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=10,a

It's a far more translatable skill than raw power, I would think.

exactly I do not want to trade him because I see him as the cornerstone of the line up after Bryce leaves.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

  • Posts: 1768
Re: Follow the Prospects: Juan Soto, OF
« Reply #70: May 05, 2017, 05:13:53 PM »
He still hasn't hit below .360 at a level yet, across three minor league levels, including 96 plate appearances this season in low-A. I don't know how you could be a less risky prospect at such a low level of the minors. He's only struck out 8 times this season. It's really, really hard to end up not being fairly valuable if you strike out that infrequently.

If you look at the list of qualified major league hitters sorted by lowest K-rate...its a pretty good list to be on unless you're a light-hitting middle infielder :)

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=10,a

It's a far more translatable skill than raw power, I would think.

Exactly.  If he's anywhere near as good as these early numbers suggest, he's the kind of prospect GMs get fired for moving. 

Offline DPMOmaha

  • Posts: 21439
  • Take two of these 30 minutes before first pitch.
Re: Follow the Prospects: Juan Soto, OF
« Reply #71: May 05, 2017, 05:22:05 PM »
Exactly.  If he's anywhere near as good as these early numbers suggest, he's the kind of prospect GMs get fired for moving. 
Unless they move them to get the last piece that wins them a championship.

Offline NJ Ave

  • Posts: 2979
Re: Follow the Prospects: Juan Soto, OF
« Reply #72: May 05, 2017, 05:38:33 PM »
Unless they move them to get the last piece that wins them a championship.

It's a really big ask that is more challenging than most people think because of confirmation bias. Do some teams that win championships make mid-season moves? Sure. Do many other teams that don't win championships also make mid-season moves? They certainly do. At best, if you take betting odds as a proxy, it might be a 5% bump in terms of your championship odds, no matter the magnitude or quantity of moves you make.

So say the Nats are 10% to win a championship this year based on betting odds. Are you willing to move a couple of the remaining premium talents we have to move to 15%?

It's an honest question. It's more honest than "our window closes in 2 years, so do whatever is necessary because it doesn't matter after 2018."

The answer still might be yes for some people. For me its not.

If our team is the Titanic and the playoffs are the iceburg, it doesn't matter how often you want to bail us out. We're still sinking.

Otherwise they can man up and freaking win something. Everyone knows they're talented enough.

Offline DPMOmaha

  • Posts: 21439
  • Take two of these 30 minutes before first pitch.
Re: Follow the Prospects: Juan Soto, OF
« Reply #73: May 05, 2017, 05:41:10 PM »
I'm not fatalistic about the next two years. I don't think there's any prospect that is unmoveable for the right return.

Offline NJ Ave

  • Posts: 2979
Re: Follow the Prospects: Juan Soto, OF
« Reply #74: May 05, 2017, 05:44:36 PM »
I'm not fatalistic about the next two years. I don't think there's any prospect that is unmoveable for the right return.

We agree on that. But the right return for me is almost never going to be a RP for a top-50 position player prospect. It would have to be like 3 years of Andrew Miller on some kind of team-friendly contract.