Valuing and Evaluating prospects in low minors (split from Robles thread)

[BrandonK]

Not just tools; he needs to move up and prove himself but his stats so far are very impressive.  When you say he is all tools I think of someone who has not produced on the field.

He's performed, but at a very low level. Stats aren't much to factor in for ROK/Low A, IMO, but it is very nice. The thing I'm excited about is he is performing, but at a young-ish age for the level (also being his first year of pro ball). This year will be huge for him.

Split this off from the Robles thread because it is a good, more general discussion - JCA

[Natsinpwc]

Raul Mondesi is all tools. All tools means you haven't put it together at any level yet.

Robles is just young.

^ This.

[Slateman]

Raul Mondesi is all tools. All tools means you haven't put it together at any level yet.

That literally describes Robles. Mondesi is MUCH further along than Robles right now.

[BrandonK]

That literally describes Robles. Mondesi is MUCH further along than Robles right now.

Yup. That's a solid comp though. We'll see how aggressive the Royals are with him this year, too.

[Slateman]

Mondesi hit .243 in double A this year with .643 OPS. His stats at the lower levels were not as good as what Robles had this year. 

But he actually got to Double A. Frankly, anyone below Double is simply all tools and natural ability.

Victor Robles is basically an athlete who is playing baseball on his natural athleticism. And, frankly, he's 3-5 years away. The idea that we shouldn't be trading him when we basically have a two year window with Bryce Harper is stupid.

[Natsinpwc]

But he actually got to Double A. Frankly, anyone below Double is simply all tools and natural ability.

Victor Robles is basically an athlete who is playing baseball on his natural athleticism. And, frankly, he's 3-5 years away. The idea that we shouldn't be trading him when we basically have a two year window with Bryce Harper is stupid.

Sometimes I wonder if you really believe the stuff you write. If he was just an athlete he would not be hitting that good.

[UMDNats]

You can pretty much throw out any stats compiled in rookie ball and short-season. Teams don't even look at them in their evaluations.

[Slateman]

You can pretty much throw out any stats compiled in rookie ball and short-season. Teams pretty much don't even look at them in their evaluations.

Sanity

[UMDNats]

At age 18, Michael Burgess put up a .982 OPS in Rk/A- and was rated the #81 overall prospect in baseball. Never got past AA.

Low-level stats are basically meaningless.

[Slateman]

Sometimes I wonder if you really believe the stuff you write. If he was just an athlete he would not be hitting that good.

The history of baseball is littered with guys who did well before Double A and amounted to nothing.

Ryan Wheeler - .363/.461/.538 in low A ball.
Ryan Kalish - .368/.471/.540 in low A ball.
MIchael Burgess - .286/.383/.457 (Nats prospect, never made it past Double A)

Anything below Double A is considered pretty useless. At this point, Robles is all natural ability and athleticism. He's basically playing in a good HS league or JuCo ball.

[UMDNats]

I'm probably in the minority but I do value full-season A and A+ stats, depending on the situation. A 20-year-old kid from the DR with a great year in A+ (especially the FSL) opens my eyes. A college kid doing well in low-A does nothing for me. But anything in short-season can be tossed.

[Natsinpwc]

You can pretty much throw out any stats compiled in rookie ball and short-season. Teams don't even look at them in their evaluations.

Sure.  And he just moved up on all the prospect lists because of??

[Natsinpwc]

The history of baseball is littered with guys who did well before Double A and amounted to nothing.

Ryan Wheeler - .363/.461/.538 in low A ball.
Ryan Kalish - .368/.471/.540 in low A ball.
MIchael Burgess - .286/.383/.457 (Nats prospect, never made it past Double A)

Anything below Double A is considered pretty useless. At this point, Robles is all natural ability and athleticism. He's basically playing in a good HS league or JuCo ball.

If it's the same as a good high school league then why don't all the other players who were among the best of their high schools have the same type of stats.

[UMDNats]

Sure.  And he just moved up on all the prospect lists because of??

Guys can show the high-potential tools even that low. I think Robles is a good prospect and the scouts seem to love  him, but I put a lot more stock in that than his numbers at this point. That's all.

We also can't plan or expect anything with him yet. Way too far away. His best-case scenario is what, 2018? 2016 in low-A, maybe A+. 2017 in A+, AA. 2018 maybe a cup of coffee. Just too far away to pencil him in anywhere or hold on to him at all costs.

[UMDNats]

If it's the same as a good high school league then why don't all the other players who were among the best of their high schools have the same type of stats.

I don't agree with Slateman that it's a good high school league or JuCo, for what it's worth. Gulf Coast, Rookie league  and short-season are basically a college all-star level.

[Natsinpwc]

I don't agree with Slateman that it's a good high school league or JuCo, for what it's worth. Gulf Coast, Rookie league  and short-season are basically a college all-star level.

Exactly.  For a young kid he did great against that level of competition. We will see how he does at Hagerstown this year.

[Slateman]

I don't agree with Slateman that it's a good high school league or JuCo, for what it's worth. Gulf Coast, Rookie league  and short-season are basically a college all-star level.

Uh ... No. Double A is college All Star. Guys like Rendon and Weiters end up in Double A by the end of their signing season or to start the next.

[welch]

Wait! What about Dick Stuart, of the Lincoln Chiefs, Class A team in the Pittsburgh Pirates organization. Hit 66 home runs, batted .298, and he's only 23. Is that potential? Is that a prospect?

(Note: "He's" is short for "He was". Can Mitlen tell us the rest of the story? Of course, Stuart hit 66 in 1956 and became even more famous as Dr. Strangeglove...)

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=stuart004ric
Major league record: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stuardi01.shtml

[Slateman]

If it's the same as a good high school league then why don't all the other players who were among the best of their high schools have the same type of stats.

Like?

[Natsinpwc]

Uh ... No. Double A is college All Star

You need to lay off the wacky weed or whatever you are drinking.

[UMDNats]

Uh ... No. Double A is college All Star. Guys like Rendon and Weiters end up in Double A by the end of their signing season or to start the next.

Double-A is way above college all-star. the staten island yankees this year had like 15 players who were right out of college and all-conference players. Gulf coast/rookie is a notch below because they're mostly dominican kids.

rendon/weiters/etc. are extreme cases. Double-A is made up of kids who are 21-23 mostly with some older and younger ones mixed in. way more developed.

[Slateman]

You need to lay off the wacky weed or whatever you are drinking.

Dude ... You have zero idea of what you're talking about. Most college players are ready for high A ball out of the gate. They get sent to a rookie league after signing and usually get bumped up to A ball by the end of the year or start the next year in A ball.

But your all star level college players ... Your Anthony Rendon, Kolten Wong, and George Springer ... They're,getting to Double A in their first full season. In fact, if they aren't ready for Double A by the end of their first full year, you start questioning their evaluation.

[UMDNats]

Anthony Rendon isn't a "college all-star," he's a superstar. All-stars are all-conference players, and 99% of them start in short-season or low-a. pitchers in high-A depending on the org

i don't even know why i'm arguing this point. i actually agreed with your original premise! god damnit.

[Slateman]

Double-A is way above college all-star. the staten island yankees this year had like 15 players who were right out of college and all-conference players. Gulf coast/rookie is a notch below because they're mostly dominican kids.

rendon/weiters/etc. are extreme cases. Double-A is made up of kids who are 21-23 mostly with some older and younger ones mixed in. way more developed.

Were all 15 players "all stars?" Or,merely good.

Lemme guess, Brian Goodwin, Christian Colon, Mike Zuinno, Tyler Naquin, James Ramesy, Devin Marrero, and Kolten Wong are also "extreme cases"

Double A is where you find out who has skill vs simple ability. Which is

[Slateman]

Anthony Rendon isn't a "college all-star," he's a superstar. All-stars are all-conference players, and 99% of them start in short-season or low-a. pitchers in high-A depending on the org

i don't even know why i'm arguing this point. i actually agreed with your original premise! god damnit.

Anthony Rendon is not a superstar.

Yes, they start in rookie ball. Because that's the sole reason the league exists. For college players. So they can graduate and finish playing for their school. Guess where they are their first full season? High A or Double A