Author Topic: Define "ace"  (Read 1301 times)

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Offline houston-nat

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Define "ace"
« Topic Start: February 04, 2016, 04:46:43 PM »
FanGraphs is crowdsourcing the definition of "ace". Go vote in the poll!

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: Define "ace"
« Reply #1: February 04, 2016, 04:54:18 PM »
so 42% of fangraphs readers don't consider strasburg an ace

Offline BrandonK

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Re: Define "ace"
« Reply #2: February 04, 2016, 04:54:34 PM »
Interesting. Went with the crowd for most, besides: DeGrom (no), Ross (yes), and Yu (no)

Online mitlen

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Re: Define "ace"
« Reply #3: February 04, 2016, 05:01:25 PM »
so 42% of fangraphs readers don't consider strasburg an ace

Hell, I don't consider Kershaw an ace in the big picture.

Offline BrandonK

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Re: Define "ace"
« Reply #4: February 04, 2016, 05:03:12 PM »
Hell, I don't consider Kershaw an ace in the big picture.

You on the syrup, Mit?

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: Define "ace"
« Reply #5: February 04, 2016, 05:05:09 PM »
if strasburg isn't an ace because of his big game pitching, then Kershaw definitely falls into that category

Online mitlen

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Re: Define "ace"
« Reply #6: February 04, 2016, 05:05:31 PM »
You on the syrup, Mit?

Nope.   Problem is I've been off the syrup.   :)

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Define "ace"
« Reply #7: February 05, 2016, 10:03:10 AM »
I don't really care about the big-game performance or a pitcher's "stuff". If they can't show me they consistently will go out and put up 30+ starts and 200+ IP, that is not an ace for me.

There were only 28 pitchers who threw 200 IP last year, so that's a tougher first criteria than you think it is. Out of those, I'd probably limit it to guys who strike out 8 or more per 9 IP and who had ERAs under 3.50 (that's being generous).

That leaves the following, which I think is a pretty good list.
Kershaw
Arrieta
Price
Scherzer
Sale
Keuchel
Greinke
Kluber
Cole
Archer
Bumgarner
Lester

Online mitlen

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Re: Define "ace"
« Reply #8: February 05, 2016, 10:09:50 AM »
I don't really care about the big-game performance or a pitcher's "stuff". If they can't show me they consistently will go out and put up 30+ starts and 200+ IP, that is not an ace for me.



Anybody can pitch in Houston in July.

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: Define "ace"
« Reply #9: February 05, 2016, 10:10:33 AM »
I don't really care about the big-game performance or a pitcher's "stuff". If they can't show me they consistently will go out and put up 30+ starts and 200+ IP, that is not an ace for me.

There were only 28 pitchers who threw 200 IP last year, so that's a tougher first criteria than you think it is. Out of those, I'd probably limit it to guys who strike out 8 or more per 9 IP and who had ERAs under 3.50 (that's being generous).

That leaves the following, which I think is a pretty good list.
Kershaw
Arrieta
Price
Scherzer
Sale
Keuchel
Greinke
Kluber
Cole
Archer
Bumgarner
Lester

I guess the question is whether an 'ace' is a label that attaches for multiple years or for just one season - at least we got one 'ace' season out of strasburg in 2014.

Offline BrandonK

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Re: Define "ace"
« Reply #10: February 05, 2016, 10:14:11 AM »
All this exercise has done is made me want the Nats to trade for Tyson Ross. That dude is the real deal

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Define "ace"
« Reply #11: February 05, 2016, 10:33:40 AM »
Anybody can pitch in Houston in July.

Right, but it's not helpful as a limiting criteria - the most important reason why is that not many pitchers have even a slightly meaningful sample size of postseason pitching. So what - we're ASSUMING that Chris Archer (1.2 postseason IP) will be a better postseason pitcher than another SP who has had the opportunity and failed a couple times?

I guess I agree with the people who think that predicting clutchness is mostly a myth. All of these guys have faced enormous amounts of pressure their entire lives - can you imagine facing major league hitters in front of 45,000 people who want you to fail, in a road start? How much pressure does the postseason really add to what is inherently an unbelievably stressful thing to do in the first place??

Roger Clemens went through postseason series where he struggled, and series where he was utterly dominant, and a lot of series where he was somewhere in the middle.

I'm not saying you wouldn't like to have a guy who you thought was 100% solid in the postseason, I'm just saying I don't know that you can figure that out with any certainty, and so I discard it as a criteria.

Online mitlen

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Re: Define "ace"
« Reply #12: February 05, 2016, 10:38:52 AM »
Right, but it's not helpful as a limiting criteria - the most important reason why is that not many pitchers have even a slightly meaningful sample size of postseason pitching. So what - we're ASSUMING that Chris Archer (1.2 postseason IP) will be a better postseason pitcher than another SP who has had the opportunity and failed a couple times?

I guess I agree with the people who think that predicting clutchness is mostly a myth. All of these guys have faced enormous amounts of pressure their entire lives - can you imagine facing major league hitters in front of 45,000 people who want you to fail, in a road start? How much pressure does the postseason really add to what is inherently an unbelievably stressful thing to do in the first place??

Roger Clemens went through postseason series where he struggled, and series where he was utterly dominant, and a lot of series where he was somewhere in the middle.     

I'm not saying you wouldn't like to have a guy who you thought was 100% solid in the postseason, I'm just saying I don't know that you can figure that out with any certainty, and so I discard it as a criteria.

Almost half of Kershaw's wins last year were against the Padres and the Rockies.    Among others, he beat the Phils and the Braves.    He did well against the Giants (.500) and lost in the playoffs.     I'm not sayin' you're not right statistically but (for me) I believe in the "myth" of clutchiness.    I also believe in jinxes.    :)   

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Define "ace"
« Reply #13: February 05, 2016, 10:41:13 AM »
Almost half of Kershaw's wins last year were against the Padres and the Rockies.    Among others, he beat the Phils and the Braves.    He did well against the Giants (.500) and lost in the playoffs.     I'm not sayin' you're not right statistically but (for me) I believe in the "myth" of clutchiness.

Wait, this discussion is about Clayton Kershaw? You do not believe that Clayton Kershaw is an ace?!?!?

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Define "ace"
« Reply #14: February 05, 2016, 10:47:47 AM »
Clayton Kershaw's highest career ERAs by opponent:

Indians 7.20
Rangers 4.50
White Sox 4.00
Mariners 3.46
Rockies 3.20

Those are not exactly world beaters, and those are the HIGHEST ERAs.

I do not think that Clayton Kershaw has built his regular season ERA by beating up on bad opponents.

Online mitlen

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Re: Define "ace"
« Reply #15: February 05, 2016, 10:48:09 AM »
Wait, this discussion is about Clayton Kershaw? You do not believe that Clayton Kershaw is an ace?!?!?

I think he's very good.    Would I want Kershaw or Price starting a meaningful game?    Maybe/maybe not.    He's the ace of the staff in July.     

Online Slateman

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Re: Define "ace"
« Reply #16: February 05, 2016, 10:57:46 AM »
I think he's very good.    Would I want Kershaw or Price starting a meaningful game?    Maybe/maybe not.    He's the ace of the staff in July.     

Dude .... Kershaw might be the best left handed pitcher ever. EVER.

Online Slateman

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Re: Define "ace"
« Reply #17: February 05, 2016, 10:58:07 AM »
I define an ace as the top 5-7 starting pitcher in baseball. So Strasburg is definitely not an ace.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Define "ace"
« Reply #18: February 05, 2016, 11:00:16 AM »
I think he's very good.    Would I want Kershaw or Price starting a meaningful game?    Maybe/maybe not.    He's the ace of the staff in July.     

Right, you'd want a postseason lock like Cliff Lee, who had a 1.26 ERA through his first 64.1 postseason innings.

Oh wait, until he gave up 26 hits and 14 ER in 17.2 IP his next 3 starts in 2010 and 2011.

Or Madison Bumgarner, who is a postseason sure thing, except for 2012 when he gave up 10 ER in 15 IP.

Or Adam Wainwright, who has been unbelievable except when he got shelled by the Nationals in 2012 and Dodgers in 2014.

I'm not saying you're wrong or trying to be flippant, I just think it's very rare to have a guy who truly becomes more/less dominant in the postseason. I think I'd always pick the guy who would help me GET to the postseason more, and take my chances.

Online mitlen

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Re: Define "ace"
« Reply #19: February 05, 2016, 11:05:48 AM »
Right, you'd want a postseason lock like Cliff Lee, who had a 1.26 ERA through his first 64.1 postseason innings.

Oh wait, until he gave up 26 hits and 14 ER in 17.2 IP his next 3 starts in 2010 and 2011.

Or Madison Bumgarner, who is a postseason sure thing, except for 2012 when he gave up 10 ER in 15 IP.

Or Adam Wainwright, who has been unbelievable except when he got shelled by the Nationals in 2012 and Dodgers in 2014.

I'm not saying you're wrong or trying to be flippant, I just think it's very rare to have a guy who truly becomes more/less dominant in the postseason. I think I'd always pick the guy who would help me GET to the postseason more, and take my chances.

Who was the "ace" of the Dodgers' staff in '15?

I'm retired.   I'm gonna put some new guts in the toilet upstairs.    :)

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Define "ace"
« Reply #20: February 05, 2016, 11:07:16 AM »
Who was the "ace" of the Dodgers' staff in '15?

I only wish we had that problem :)

Online mitlen

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Re: Define "ace"
« Reply #21: February 05, 2016, 11:11:42 AM »
I only wish we had that problem :)

Amen

Offline houston-nat

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Re: Define "ace"
« Reply #22: February 05, 2016, 11:42:36 AM »
Who was the "ace" of the Dodgers' staff in '15?

I'm retired.   I'm gonna put some new guts in the toilet upstairs.    :)
A team can have two aces!

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Define "ace"
« Reply #23: February 05, 2016, 11:43:11 AM »

Online mitlen

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Re: Define "ace"
« Reply #24: February 05, 2016, 12:29:22 PM »
I was cleaning out the guts in the tank of the toilet upstairs when it dawned on me.    I might harbor bad feelings toward Kershaw because of that damned Subway commercial.     Was there a connective thought between Subway, Kershaw and the toilet?     Retired life.   I can't wait for summer.     :)