Author Topic: Fire Dusty Baker!  (Read 63495 times)

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Re: Fire Dusty Baker! (2015-2016)
« Reply #150: November 04, 2015, 06:26:33 AM »
Are we favored to win the World Series yet?

Offline Minty Fresh

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Re: Fire Dusty Baker! (2015-2016)
« Reply #151: November 04, 2015, 07:30:57 AM »
Are we favored to win the World Series yet?

Dude, where's my ring?

Online MorseTheHorse

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Re: Fire Dusty Baker! (2015-2016)
« Reply #152: November 04, 2015, 07:34:54 AM »
Are we favored to win the World Series yet?

12th in ESPN's power rankings, with a discussion of whether we should rebuild or not!

Offline comish4lif

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Re: Fire Dusty Baker! (2015-2016)
« Reply #153: November 04, 2015, 08:18:46 AM »

so what is the standard- you gave a bunch of maxims, but you said there was an objective standard, and now a mathematically measured objective standard, that implies the existence of an actual standard, I would love to see a link to that formula
Which formula, outs are bad?

Online Slateman

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Re: Fire Dusty Baker! (2015-2016)
« Reply #154: November 04, 2015, 08:20:57 AM »
Fangraphs likes the hire.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dusty-baker-is-not-a-bad-hire/

"In his Reds years, they led all of baseball in sacrifice bunts. "

Somewhere, PC is buying a lot of lotion.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Fire Dusty Baker! (2015-2016)
« Reply #155: November 04, 2015, 08:37:08 AM »
Eh, I don't like the hire, hate the process, but I'm not going to hate on the man.  Dusty seems to be personable.  I like him on TV.  Players don't cuss him out behind his back.  I'm still very skeptical about his use of pitchers (both bullpen and starting) and would have preferred Black for that alone, and I want to see if his offense philosophy is more a function of the players he has and less a result of refusal to accept information.  I'll really be curious to see if he takes in defensive information and uses it.  I have doubts, but even 2 years off and some time in the studio may have led him to see "hey, there might be something to this." 

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Re: Fire Dusty Baker! (2015-2016)
« Reply #156: November 04, 2015, 09:20:23 AM »
12th in ESPN's power rankings, with a discussion of whether we should rebuild or not!

I'll take vegas over ESPN http://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/futures/ 10/1 to win the 2016 world series- 4 way tie for second most likely with the dodgers leading at 8/1

Offline MarquisDeSade

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Re: Fire Dusty Baker! (2015-2016)
« Reply #157: November 04, 2015, 09:38:15 AM »
Eh, I don't like the hire, hate the process, but I'm not going to hate on the man.  Dusty seems to be personable.  I like him on TV.  Players don't cuss him out behind his back.  I'm still very skeptical about his use of pitchers (both bullpen and starting) and would have preferred Black for that alone, and I want to see if his offense philosophy is more a function of the players he has and less a result of refusal to accept information.  I'll really be curious to see if he takes in defensive information and uses it.  I have doubts, but even 2 years off and some time in the studio may have led him to see "hey, there might be something to this." 

Not picking on you (we're friends and all IRL) but I don't buy that guys like Dusty are "old school" and anti-SABR and find this whole "THERE'S NEW DATA THAT IS GOING TO CHANGE THE GAME BUY IN OR LOSE" to be overblown nonsense by people bored with the game.  In hindsight there's a lot of things that could have been done differently to influence outcomes but in the moment (i.e. when the game is live, not OOTP or in a CRAY simulation) there's more data to consider than you have time to prepare for in a simulation.  Look at the post-mortems of teams that fall apart - lots of issues (injuries, family situations, mental health issues) that don't make it into the stat sheet or in PitchF/X/FieldF/X/StatCast that a manager has to consider.  When they freak up everyone wants to pull the "IN THAT SITUATION THE DATA SAYS TO DO X" or "I would have done X because Y happens 37.6% of the time".  Sure, but you don't have all of the data that the coaching staff has and never will. 

I don't disagree that when you have a chance to keep the game in your favour to bring in your closer prior to the 8th or 9th inning but I think we all know that's not something that's going to happen for most teams because of the "Save" metric and contract issues.  All of that said, I think we all know that defense is something that you HAVE to really make a priority and if that involves shifts (which there's some discussion at limiting) I don't see why you wouldn't use that tool until you can't.  The spray charts are great and FieldF/X has gotten much better but I still think that there's a lot more that goes into positioning outside of "he hits line drives into zone 3.86 45% of the time so position accordingly".  It's good information to have but there are so many variables that change during the game (wind, atm pressure, spin rotation issues, muscle tweaks) that trying to model them accurately is a waste of time.  Again, not saying you dismiss it out of hand but it's just a guide and not the be-all-end-all that many seem to think it can be.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Fire Dusty Baker! (2015-2016)
« Reply #158: November 04, 2015, 11:09:44 AM »
MDS - don't make my comment the strawman for replacing every manager with Tom Tango or Voros McCracken.  I'm speaking more in a liberal arts fashion than a math fashion.  As you say, it's pretty clear that there is some advantage to be gained from the newer hit spray and tracking information when it comes to defensive positioning.  You maybe did not need a Cray to figure out the Boudreau shift, so it isn't quite as radical as some make it out to be, and it is very dangerous to over-value "the percentages" when you have incomplete inputs, as you note. 

I really only hope for a Clint Hurdle type of approach.  Hurdle was no SABR genius, but he was open to new information on D when he received it.

Offline MarquisDeSade

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Re: Fire Dusty Baker! (2015-2016)
« Reply #159: November 04, 2015, 11:23:10 AM »
I really only hope for a Clint Hurdle type of approach.  Hurdle was no SABR genius, but he was open to new information on D when he received it.

Absolutely, I tell clients all the time - "listen, this is what [the model] shows but you understand the 'inside baseball' of this better than anyone - let it be a guide but you're the one walking the path."  Sometimes the data/model helps bring about new discussion or allows exploitation of a hidden gain, sometimes it confirms their assumptions, often it's completely wrong.  I think SABR is the same way - most managers are looking for any advantage they can get that's reasonable and presented in way they can quickly understand it.  Just my opinion, but I think a lot of the analysis and discussion (particularly on FG) really moves into the realm of the absurd.  Until this year I thought that MLB teams didn't allow that kind of tomfoolery but I think with the Angels we saw that play out. 

Offline NatsAllThe Way

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Re: Fire Dusty Baker! (2015-2016)
« Reply #160: November 04, 2015, 11:31:49 AM »
12th in ESPN's power rankings, with a discussion of whether we should rebuild or not!
Mike Rizzo should write a book entitled "Dumpster Team To Dream Team.... To Exploding Dumpster Fire In 10 Easy Steps."

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Re: Fire Dusty Baker! (2015-2016)
« Reply #161: November 04, 2015, 11:42:32 AM »
Mike Rizzo should write a book entitled "Dumpster Team To Dream Team.... To Exploding Dumpster Fire In 10 Easy Steps."

Subtitled: "turning the corner, again"

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Fire Dusty Baker! (2015-2016)
« Reply #162: November 04, 2015, 12:27:09 PM »
Subtitled: "turning the corner, again"

And the children's edition, "Mikey Rizzo and the Terrible, Horrible, No-Good, Very Bad Year."

Offline skippy1999

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Re: Fire Dusty Baker! (2015-2016)
« Reply #163: November 04, 2015, 01:07:57 PM »
And the children's edition, "Mikey Rizzo and the Terrible, Horrible, No-Good, Very Bad Year."

awesome :clap:

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: Fire Dusty Baker! (2015-2016)
« Reply #164: November 04, 2015, 02:30:58 PM »
HardballTalk ‏@HardballTalk  13m13 minutes ago
#Nationals "likely" to hire Mike Maddux as pitching coach http://wp.me/p14QSL-2rm1

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Re: Fire Dusty Baker! (2015-2016)
« Reply #165: November 04, 2015, 02:43:58 PM »
HardballTalk ‏@HardballTalk  13m13 minutes ago
#Nationals "likely" to hire Mike Maddux as pitching coach http://wp.me/p14QSL-2rm1

Watch them lowball him too...

Offline rbw5t

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Re: Fire Dusty Baker! (2015-2016)
« Reply #166: November 04, 2015, 03:03:47 PM »
Didn't the Rangers pitching always suck?

Online imref

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Re: Fire Dusty Baker! (2015-2016)
« Reply #167: November 04, 2015, 03:46:36 PM »
Watch them lowball him too...

Maddux will pay the Nats $75 a game to coach, plus concessions fees.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Fire Dusty Baker! (2015-2016)
« Reply #168: November 04, 2015, 04:26:07 PM »
Maddux will pay the Nats $75 a game to coach, plus concessions fees.

Any word on whether the Nats have implemented their plan to tie all front office employees to the GS-scale?

Online varoadking

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Re: Fire Dusty Baker! (2015-2016)
« Reply #169: November 04, 2015, 04:27:08 PM »
Any word on whether the Nats have implemented their plan to tie all front office employees to the GS-scale?

I think they heard how tough it was to fire a GS and moved on...

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Fire Dusty Baker! (2015-2016)
« Reply #170: November 04, 2015, 04:34:15 PM »
I think they heard how tough it was to fire a GS and moved on...

I'm sure they've been documenting Rizzo for years. I heard he's on a PIP...

Offline mmzznnxx

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Re: Fire Dusty Baker! (2015-2016)
« Reply #171: November 04, 2015, 04:35:37 PM »
This thread will have 100 new pages by this time next year. Dusty's going to freaking blow.

Offline mitlen

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Re: Fire Dusty Baker! (2015-2016)
« Reply #172: November 04, 2015, 04:36:22 PM »
This thread will have 100 new pages by this time next year. Dusty's going to freaking blow.

Nah, he'll be fired before then.

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Re: Fire Dusty Baker! (2015-2016)
« Reply #173: November 04, 2015, 04:42:33 PM »
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2015/11/04/nationals-hire-mike-maddux-pitching-coach/75172248/

This means he'll be interviewing for the Dodgers vacancy on Friday. :)

The report says he was actually hired last week and would have been Black's pitching coach as well.  He may be the highest paid pitching coach in baseball. :shrug:

Offline houston-nat

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Re: Fire Dusty Baker! (2015-2016)
« Reply #174: November 04, 2015, 04:48:00 PM »
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2015/11/04/nationals-hire-mike-maddux-pitching-coach/75172248/

This means he'll be interviewing for the Dodgers vacancy on Friday. :)

The report says he was actually hired last week and would have been Black's pitching coach as well.  He may be the highest paid pitching coach in baseball. :shrug:
WAIT WHAT WE GOT MIKE MADDUX?!!???!??!?!

woooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo ooooooooooo