Author Topic: Follow the Prospects: Andrew Stevenson, OF  (Read 8062 times)

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Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Andrew Stevenson, OF
« Reply #75: April 19, 2017, 12:26:05 PM »
He was a college guy, though. And at a top school, to boot. He's probably got more than two years of development under his belt.

I know, but what I meant was that Carolina League to MLB in 24 months is a very aggressive development curve, even for a major-college outfielder.  Really the only reason it's realistic at all is that he's essentially ready defensively.  If he hits AA and then AAA this year, he's a likely call up for September this season simply because of his defense and speed.  Only impediment would be that he's not on the 40-man right now, but they can always DFA one of the rag-arm relievers.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Andrew Stevenson, OF
« Reply #76: April 19, 2017, 12:27:35 PM »
I just like that his bat was his supposed weakness and all the kid does is hit.

He hit .246 in a half season at AA last year.

Let's pump the brakes a little, at least until his BABIP isn't .553.

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Andrew Stevenson, OF
« Reply #77: April 19, 2017, 12:39:04 PM »
12/1 profile pic bet: if Stevenson ever passes Robles in a rankings update or full year list for Fangraphs, Baseball America, or MLB.com, before either of them loses their prospect status, you can pick my profile pic for 12 months. Otherwise, I pick yours for 1 month.

There is a 0% chance that Stevenson is ever thought of as a better prospect by any reputable source.

If you want a recent example - Michael Taylor vs. Billy Burns. Burns has had a really good full season in the majors, which is more than Michael Taylor ever had. But Burns was not close to MAT in prospect status. MAT peaked in top 50 lists.

And Robles is far beyond MAT, even if Andrew Stevenson is a little above Billy Burns.
Nah, not the betting type.

Offline whytev

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Andrew Stevenson, OF
« Reply #78: April 19, 2017, 12:57:28 PM »
I just like that his bat was his supposed weakness and all the kid does is hit.

Thought it was his arm.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Andrew Stevenson, OF
« Reply #79: April 19, 2017, 01:26:54 PM »
Also, prospect ratings are not random. 25 years of data based on eventual prospect outcomes shows that someone rated like Robles is worth $73.5 million and someone rated like Stevenson is worth $11 million, on average in their first 6 seasons of team control.

Variations in outcomes <> zero correlation.

Offline Truconfidence

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Andrew Stevenson, OF
« Reply #80: April 19, 2017, 06:38:47 PM »
He hit .246 in a half season at AA last year.

Let's pump the brakes a little, at least until his BABIP isn't .553.
But after that AZ fall leauge he hit and this start in AA is not a small sample size.

Offline Truconfidence

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Andrew Stevenson, OF
« Reply #81: April 19, 2017, 06:40:22 PM »
Thought it was his arm.
everything i read after he was drafted was his path to hitting posiiton would have to change becuase there was no way he could catch up to high velo with his approach.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Andrew Stevenson, OF
« Reply #82: April 19, 2017, 09:40:40 PM »
But after that AZ fall leauge he hit and this start in AA is not a small sample size.

It's < 150 plate appearances. I'm not saying it's not encouraging, because it is. But it is rare to carry forward a no-power profile to the majors.

There were only 8 qualifying players last year with an ISO under .100, and 5 of them were worth -1.5 wins or lower at the plate. Truly awful hitters.

It's not a recipe for success in the majors. But maybe he's Ender Inciarte. It's not like I'm not hoping for that, I just have my doubts.

Offline Truconfidence

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Andrew Stevenson, OF
« Reply #83: April 20, 2017, 01:05:09 AM »
It's < 150 plate appearances. I'm not saying it's not encouraging, because it is. But it is rare to carry forward a no-power profile to the majors.

There were only 8 qualifying players last year with an ISO under .100, and 5 of them were worth -1.5 wins or lower at the plate. Truly awful hitters.

It's not a recipe for success in the majors. But maybe he's Ender Inciarte. It's not like I'm not hoping for that, I just have my doubts.
thats exactly who I am hoping he is.

Offline zimm_da_kid

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Andrew Stevenson, OF
« Reply #84: April 30, 2017, 01:30:13 PM »
want to give this guy a chance

Offline whytev

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Andrew Stevenson, OF
« Reply #85: April 30, 2017, 02:12:14 PM »
want to give this guy a chance

He's not ready.

Offline Truconfidence

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Andrew Stevenson, OF
« Reply #86: April 30, 2017, 02:57:18 PM »
want to give this guy a chance
He is not ready yet. Would not be fair to him.

Offline imref

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 Stevenson was promoted last week to Syracuse, batting .125 through his first five games after putting up .350/.429/.438 in 20 games at Harrisburg.

https://districtondeck.com/2017/05/02/washington-nationals-andrew-stevenson-heads-syracuse/

Offline dcpatti

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Rumor has it, we have senior scouts at or on the way to the White Sox again checkin out Robertson.  I wonder if the timing of this promotion to Syracuse has something to do with that scouting trip.

Offline DPMOmaha

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Rumor has it, we have senior scouts at or on the way to the White Sox again checkin out Robertson.  I wonder if the timing of this promotion to Syracuse has something to do with that scouting trip.
Supposedly the Royals scouts have been watching DC, too. There's going to be scouts all over the place this summer.

Offline imref

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Most Scouts attend camp in the summer.  :rimshot:

Offline monkeyhit

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Andrew Stevenson, OF
« Reply #91: June 24, 2017, 09:31:06 AM »
Heating up in AAA. .333 in June     Better CF option than Wilmer Difo!

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Andrew Stevenson, OF
« Reply #92: July 26, 2017, 04:58:54 PM »
normally, I lock while a guy is up with the big league club, but since Stevenson I think is pretty clearly short term, I'm leaving this open. 

Here's an article in Fangraphs about his call up:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/speedy-andrew-stevenson-slows-down-and-reaches-dc/