Author Topic: Nats to load up in 2016?  (Read 2152 times)

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Offline redskinsJB321

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Nats to load up in 2016?
« Topic Start: June 29, 2015, 09:14:28 PM »
I realize a lot can happen between now and next year, but it looks like the Nats are planning to really stock the system next summer.  What is crazy is that they may have the top rated system in MLB going into next year, depending on graduations and how guys like Robles, Reetz, and Fedde do the rest of this year.

I believe most on this board are aware of the possible four compensation picks for losing Span, Zimmermann, Fister, and Desmond.  This would create the chance to load up and sign a blue chip prospect or two that may slip because of bonus demand or injury.

The other situation I have been watching is the July 2nd international signing period.  The 2016 period has one of the best prospects in history in SS Kevin Maitan.  If you Google the name, you will see the articles.  I don't remember an international player being this hyped this fast(at age 14).  The class itself sounds like it will be absolutely loaded overall. 

Now, why is this especially exciting.  All of the big spenders will be under penalty for exceeding their bonus pool.  The Nats will be by far the biggest spender that is allowed to do so.  The article below lists The Braves, Nats and possibly the Padres as teams that could be looking to exceed their pool.  The Nats may do the international version of what they did in 2011 and grab all they can before the new CBA changes the rules.  Even if they do not get Maitan, they could still really add to the system.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/2016-year-break-international-bonus-pool/

I do not know what will happen but the thought is exciting, especially considering how good they are at finding talent under the radar.  I am crossing my fingers on Maitan, but next summer could be fun.  I hope we'll be hungover from a WS win and adding crazy talent for the next generation.


Offline RD

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Re: Nats to load up in 2016?
« Reply #1: June 29, 2015, 09:20:04 PM »
Definitely intrigued by the possibilities in the 2016 draft. We do t have a ton of talent at the lower levels and next year would be a great year to add quite a few top level talent to the system.

Offline BrandonK

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Re: Nats to load up in 2016?
« Reply #2: June 29, 2015, 10:01:53 PM »
I like the guy they're *potentially* signing this year: http://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2015int&type=0&pos=all

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Nats to load up in 2016?
« Reply #3: June 29, 2015, 10:14:15 PM »
The other possibility is that, with all the comp picks, it allows them to sign a guy with a QO and still get to restock the system.  Having the LAD/NYY / BOS/ ChC out of the way makes the Nats money potentially bigger for internationals, too.  Restocking will be fun.

Offline redskinsJB321

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Re: Nats to load up in 2016?
« Reply #4: June 29, 2015, 10:20:34 PM »
The other possibility is that, with all the comp picks, it allows them to sign a guy with a QO and still get to restock the system.  Having the LAD/NYY / BOS/ ChC out of the way makes the Nats money potentially bigger for internationals, too.  Restocking will be fun.

I know it does not make sense, but I keep wondering if Rizzo can resist the dream of Upton/Harper.  It would put a $21-million Werth on the bench for two years.  Scherzer did not make sense to me either, so who knows.

Offline Hogie

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Re: Nats to load up in 2016?
« Reply #5: June 30, 2015, 12:36:00 AM »
Not to mention the haul we'll get for Strasburg this winter! (fingers crossed)

Offline imref

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Re: Nats to load up in 2016?
« Reply #6: June 30, 2015, 09:59:08 AM »
I know it does not make sense, but I keep wondering if Rizzo can resist the dream of Upton/Harper.  It would put a $21-million Werth on the bench for two years.  Scherzer did not make sense to me either, so who knows.

I don't think Rizzo will be real excited at the thought of going into 2016 with an OF of Harper, Taylor, and Werth with virtually no backup, so it stands to reason he'll go after another OF and use Taylor as a 4th OF.

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: Nats to load up in 2016?
« Reply #7: June 30, 2015, 10:01:48 AM »
The other possibility is that, with all the comp picks, it allows them to sign a guy with a QO and still get to restock the system.  Having the LAD/NYY / BOS/ ChC out of the way makes the Nats money potentially bigger for internationals, too.  Restocking will be fun.

I still don't see the Nats playing in the top end of the international amateur market (one smiley seems like enough for them)

Offline houston-nat

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Re: Nats to load up in 2016?
« Reply #8: June 30, 2015, 10:36:09 AM »
I still don't see the Nats playing in the top end of the international amateur market (one smiley seems like enough for them)
They have been pretty clear about going for quantity of players rather than signing 1 guy who maxes out the budget. And it's starting to look like an OK idea - Reynaldo Lopez ($17,000), Wilmer Difo (can't find signing info anywhere online), Victor Robles, Jefry Rodriguez, Pedro Severino, etc. may not be Yoan Moncada, but it looks like some of them will be able to contribute.

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: Nats to load up in 2016?
« Reply #9: June 30, 2015, 10:42:04 AM »
They have been pretty clear about going for quantity of players rather than signing 1 guy who maxes out the budget. And it's starting to look like an OK idea - Reynaldo Lopez ($17,000), Wilmer Difo (can't find signing info anywhere online), Victor Robles, Jefry Rodriguez, Pedro Severino, etc. may not be Yoan Moncada, but it looks like some of them will be able to contribute.

it makes sense- something around $4 million buys you the best international amateur- and the success rate doesn't seem to justify the price, especially if you can get good prospects for less than 100k (and at 16, can you really spot the future HoF centerfielder vs. the A ball washout between the $4 million player and the 95k player?)

Online varoadking

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Re: Nats to load up in 2016?
« Reply #10: June 30, 2015, 11:09:37 AM »
Throw McLousy's $5MM per year at Span and keep him and Taylor.

Offline blue911

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Re: Nats to load up in 2016?
« Reply #11: June 30, 2015, 11:13:05 AM »
Difo signed for $25K

Offline redskinsJB321

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Re: Nats to load up in 2016?
« Reply #12: June 30, 2015, 12:21:24 PM »
I still don't see the Nats playing in the top end of the international amateur market (one smiley seems like enough for them)

Well that article says they are going to go over slot(or some think so).  Things are much different now both on the team and with MLB's involvement.  I doubt there would be a Smiley situation.

I doubt they will spend over slot for 40-50 Robles and Difos.  Exceeding the pool means blue chippers to me.  Time will tell.  I hope there is a mix of both. 

Offline redskinsJB321

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Re: Nats to load up in 2016?
« Reply #13: June 30, 2015, 12:23:48 PM »
it makes sense- something around $4 million buys you the best international amateur- and the success rate doesn't seem to justify the price, especially if you can get good prospects for less than 100k (and at 16, can you really spot the future HoF centerfielder vs. the A ball washout between the $4 million player and the 95k player?)

Maitan is not your typical bonus baby.  Think Harper, Hosmer, Cabrera, Felix Hernandez.  The success rate on the rare guys like him is extremely high.

Offline RD

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Re: Nats to load up in 2016?
« Reply #14: June 30, 2015, 12:28:26 PM »
That article projects us to pay $1.5mill to Juan Soto. That's the most we've spent in awhile, IIRC, more than we spent on Smiley. We've done well with cheaper guys, and havent spent that much on ome guy, so the kid must really have impressed.

Offline BrandonK

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Re: Nats to load up in 2016?
« Reply #15: June 30, 2015, 12:30:29 PM »
That article projects us to pay $1.5mill to Juan Soto. That's the most we've spent in awhile, IIRC, more than we spent on Smiley. We've done well with cheaper guys, and havent spent that much on ome guy, so the kid must really have impressed.

16yr old, lefty, good size (6' 1"). We'll see. Surprised at the amount, too.

Offline RD

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Re: Nats to load up in 2016?
« Reply #16: June 30, 2015, 12:30:39 PM »
I believe Robles signed for 200k fwiw.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Nats to load up in 2016?
« Reply #17: June 30, 2015, 12:42:38 PM »
The success rate on the rare guys like him is extremely high.

Quote from: redskinsJB321's HS English Teacher
SHOW PROOF.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Nats to load up in 2016?
« Reply #18: June 30, 2015, 12:49:02 PM »
I'll try to keep this light, because I could really write like an 8,000 word evisceration. To say that the success rate on top bonus babies is "extremely high" is...not true. Internationally, the hit rate may even be lower. Here's the list of top international bonuses, please show me where this looks like a "sure thing". Sorry if it's hard to read unformatted, that's why I only excerpted the top of the list.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/top-40-international-bonuses-time/

Player    Year    Pos    Org    Age    Country    Bonus
1. Nomar Mazara    2011    OF    Rangers    16    Dominican Republic    $4.95 million
2. Jairo Beras    2012    OF    Rangers    17    Dominican Republic    $4.5 million
3. Michael Ynoa    2008    RHP    Athletics    16    Dominican Republic    $4.25 million
4. Ronald Guzman    2011    OF    Rangers    16    Dominican Republic    $3.45 million
5. Miguel Sano    2009    SS    Twins    16    Dominican Republic    $3.15 million
6. Gilbert Lara    2014    SS    Brewers    16    Dominican Republic    $3.0975 million
T-7. Dermis Garcia    2014    SS    Yankees    16    Dominican Republic    $3 million
T-7. Luis Heredia    2010    RHP    Pirates    16    Mexico    $3 million
T-7. Elier Hernandez    2011    OF    Royals    16    Dominican Republic    $3 million
T-7. Gary Sanchez    2009    C    Yankees    16    Dominican Republic    $3 million
11. Adrian Rondon    2014    SS    Rays    16    Dominican Republic    $2.95 million
T-12. Adonys Cardona    2010    RHP    Blue Jays    16    Venezuela    $2.8 million
T-12. Eloy Jimenez    2013    OF    Cubs    16    Dominican Republic    $2.8 million
14. Ariel Ovando    2010    OF    Astros    16    Dominican Republic    $2.6 million
15. Rafael Rodriguez    2008    OF    Giants    16    Dominican Republic    $2.55 million

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: Nats to load up in 2016?
« Reply #19: June 30, 2015, 01:02:01 PM »
Maitan is not your typical bonus baby.  Think Harper, Hosmer, Cabrera, Felix Hernandez.  The success rate on the rare guys like him is extremely high.

there have been threads with articles linking the nats to almost every big name international player and free agent (with the notable exceptions of Werth and Scherzer)

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Nats to load up in 2016?
« Reply #20: June 30, 2015, 01:02:34 PM »
Just to show you how silly and retrospective baseball is, people are asking if Kevin Maitan is a "once a decade" prospect like Miguel Cabrera.

Well, maybe TWICE a decade prospect, because when Miguel Cabrera got a $1.8 million bonus out of Venezuela in 1999 Wily Mo Pena got $2.44 million out of the DR.

I wonder who will be the prospect to make a couple million less than Kevin Maitan and end up being 1000 times as good?


Offline redskinsJB321

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Re: Nats to load up in 2016?
« Reply #21: June 30, 2015, 01:06:17 PM »
The guys that are hyped like this at age 14 are extremely rare.  Harper, Eric Hosmer, Miguel Cabrera, and Felix Hernandez come to mind. 

Sano from the list below was a little older when the hype started and was considered a top prospect down there. He's still considered a stud prospect anyway.  He missed all of 2014 with an injury or would likely be in MLB now.

I honestly can not think of a guy in either baseball or hockey that got the "once in a generation" hype at that age didn't live up to it, or at least become an outstanding player.  The closest that comes to mind is Eric Lindros who had a bunch of concussions.

Also, keep in mind that DiPuglia is probably the best scout in the Nats system.  He's finding guys with little to no bonus money.  He has more than earned the chance to go after the big boys.  My money is on him picking the right ones.

Offline redskinsJB321

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Re: Nats to load up in 2016?
« Reply #22: June 30, 2015, 01:09:29 PM »
Just to show you how silly and retrospective baseball is, people are asking if Kevin Maitan is a "once a decade" prospect like Miguel Cabrera.

Well, maybe TWICE a decade prospect, because when Miguel Cabrera got a $1.8 million bonus out of Venezuela in 1999 Wily Mo Pena got $2.44 million out of the DR.

I wonder who will be the prospect to make a couple million less than Kevin Maitan and end up being 1000 times as good?

You are just going by money.  I am going by the scouting reports.  Pena was nowhere near as hyped as Cabrera.  The Mets or whomever it was went nuts because he could hit a ball farther than every other kid by a lot.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Nats to load up in 2016?
« Reply #23: June 30, 2015, 01:14:51 PM »
The guys that are hyped like this at age 14 are extremely rare.  Harper, Eric Hosmer, Miguel Cabrera, and Felix Hernandez come to mind. 

Sano from the list below was a little older when the hype started and was considered a top prospect down there. He's still considered a stud prospect anyway.  He missed all of 2014 with an injury or would likely be in MLB now.

I honestly can not think of a guy in either baseball or hockey that got the "once in a generation" hype at that age didn't live up to it, or at least become an outstanding player.  The closest that comes to mind is Eric Lindros who had a bunch of concussions.

Also, keep in mind that DiPuglia is probably the best scout in the Nats system.  He's finding guys with little to no bonus money.  he has more than earned the chance to go after the big boys.  My money is on him picking the right ones.

Hosmer: 5th in his DRAFT class in WAR, 7.2 in 5 years.
Cabrera: 75% of the bonus Wily Mo Pena got, in the same year.
Felix Hernandez: received $710,000, or like 30% of what Wily Mo Pena received 3 years earlier.

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: Nats to load up in 2016?
« Reply #24: June 30, 2015, 01:16:28 PM »
Most of these guys sign and then are never heard from again except for one or two lines about them being released from what ever level of the minors they ascend to. Pena is probably a relative success story since he at least made the majors. If you think he has the hype of  "once in a generation" try finding mentions of him in mainstream sporting press- some writers who focus on amateurs and prospects may be writing about him, but the draft is over, the signing deadline is weeks away  and they have to write something