Author Topic: Michael Taylor superstar  (Read 34943 times)

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Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Michael Taylor superstar
« Reply #125: July 17, 2015, 10:11:01 AM »
NJ Ave - I'm thinking of a Mike Cameron (11% BB, 24% K for career, .195 ISO, close to .340 OBP) type of player, with better base stealing skill.  Maybe that is  an unfair comparison.  You are probably right that it is too much to expect.  Add that with stellar defense from age 24 to 30, and that is a star.

Taylor had that kind of walk rate in the high minors (2012 A+ on up). The K rate only started to push over 25% last year in AA and AAA.  Granted, better pitchers, so not to unusual.  If he were an 8% BB / 25% K guy, I'd really think we'd be in for some 5 WAR years.

I actually looked this up yesterday because Cameron is always the guy in the back of my head as a Taylor comp. Cameron did have 3 years at the level of production Span has been producing at, but more often he was about half as productive - Span has been producing at a 20 offensive run level, whereas Cameron had 9 seasons of between 7.9 and 12.3 offensive runs. I think that 10-run level is something to shoot for with Taylor.

But anything in the 0-10 run range and we've got a 3-win CF (i.e. we can focus our attention on other problems :))

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Michael Taylor superstar
« Reply #126: July 17, 2015, 10:27:57 AM »
Not to derail, but if you are looking at FG's data on Cameron and Span through age 30, most of Cameron's offensive years are better than Span.  Comparable OBP and superior slugging.  Check it out again.  That said, Span and Cameron's age 30 and 31 seasons (Span's 2014 and 2015) are very close to Cameron's offense at those ages.

http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.aspx?playerid=8347&position=OF&page=8&players=1070

Span at his best did not steal as much as Cameron in his 20s.  That said, I'd certainly settle for Span-like performance in CF from Taylor.  I just think he is close to being much better than that.

Offline Smithian

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Re: Michael Taylor superstar
« Reply #127: July 17, 2015, 10:33:28 AM »
I actually looked this up yesterday because Cameron is always the guy in the back of my head as a Taylor comp. Cameron did have 3 years at the level of production Span has been producing at, but more often he was about half as productive - Span has been producing at a 20 offensive run level, whereas Cameron had 9 seasons of between 7.9 and 12.3 offensive runs. I think that 10-run level is something to shoot for with Taylor.

But anything in the 0-10 run range and we've got a 3-win CF (i.e. we can focus our attention on other problems :))
If the Nats go into next season with a reasonable expectation that by early May they'll be starting Taylor, Espi/Yunel, and Turner up the middle with Roark and Ross in the back of the rotation then that opens up a ton of payroll flexibility. The guys they'd replace (Span, Desmond, Fister, ZNN) are commanding over $47 million this season and ZNN/Span are due raises. You can play with that money to maybe sign Span or ZNN along with playing with the idea of signing a big corner OF bat and moving Bryce to center. And ability to take on salary is a huge bonus in trade negotiations.

Taylor isn't great, but he is who I was hoping Goodwin would be.

Offline Smithian

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Re: Michael Taylor superstar
« Reply #128: July 17, 2015, 10:35:05 AM »
Not to derail, but if you are looking at FG's data on Cameron and Span through age 30, most of Cameron's offensive years are better than Span.  Comparable OBP and superior slugging.  Check it out again.  That said, Span and Cameron's age 30 and 31 seasons (Span's 2014 and 2015) are very close to Cameron's offense at those ages.

http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.aspx?playerid=8347&position=OF&page=8&players=1070

Span at his best did not steal as much as Cameron in his 20s.  That said, I'd certainly settle for Span-like performance in CF from Taylor.  I just think he is close to being much better than that.
Are you talking glove or bat? If Taylor gives us 80% of Span's offensive value these last couple seasons then we have our leadoff hitter for the next 4 or 5 years. If he is better than Span with the bat then you combine that with his glove and we have a star.

Offline Optics

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Re: Michael Taylor superstar
« Reply #129: July 17, 2015, 11:04:54 AM »
If he could get down Span's high OBP and patient approach while maintaining the same power #s, he'd be an MVP caliber player.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Michael Taylor superstar
« Reply #130: July 17, 2015, 11:12:18 AM »
Not to derail, but if you are looking at FG's data on Cameron and Span through age 30, most of Cameron's offensive years are better than Span. 

It's hard to parse, for me. Cameron obviously played in a much different offensive era, and I'm limiting my comparison to Span's last 18 months or so. He's been a true impact offensive player over that time and that's what we're going to be replacing with Taylor most likely, so that's my baseline not what Span might have done earlier in his career. In any case, we're not disagreeing over much. Span and Cameron are both above-average offensive players in addition to good defensive players and baserunners. If Taylor could turn into Cameron that would be amazing.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Michael Taylor superstar
« Reply #131: July 17, 2015, 11:32:04 AM »
Are you talking glove or bat? If Taylor gives us 80% of Span's offensive value these last couple seasons then we have our leadoff hitter for the next 4 or 5 years. If he is better than Span with the bat then you combine that with his glove and we have a star.
I am saying both.  I think he is better than Span defensively right now, and, if he could get his K rate down to 25%, he is a better offensive player, the same way I think Mike Cameron was a better offensive player, at least through the same age, than Span.

Span is a very nice fit for this team the past couple of years due to his OBP.  I do not think Taylor ever should hit leadoff, so I don't see him as filling the same function in the batting order as Span.  I'm hoping for a .340 OBP but expecting .315 - .325 from Taylor, and that just should never go near leadoff or #2.  Taylor has big power potential and also great speed.  I think if he gets his Ks under control, with his speed and power, I think he can be a terrific #5 / #6 hitter.  More or less, think Desi 2012 - 2014, with a lower average and more walks.

As for defense, I'll agree that advanced stats underrate and don't quite capture what our eyes say about Span's defense, but Taylor has a better arm and more speed and range.  Again, advanced stats aren't everything, but you realize Taylor grades out as the best outfielder defensively in baseball this year on UZR, a plus arm, top 15 on DRS (despite playing 50+ fewer innings than all but one guy ahead of him and having a high K staff), top 20 in out of zone outs, and top 10 in zone rating.  That is an awful lot of ways of slicing the data, all pointing towards an excellent defensive season. 

Offline welch

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Re: Michael Taylor superstar
« Reply #132: July 17, 2015, 09:05:09 PM »
The whole OF settles down when Span plays CF. Taylor seems fast and elegant, but not quite sure where to play before a pitch and how to play when a ball is hit. Taylor is a fine LF, but CF demands more than he's got now. Maybe in a few seasons, but now he reminds me of the year that Harper played CF: superior speed and arm, but a little shaky.

Hitting? I prefer the current Span to the current Taylor, and the current Taylor to Werth as he hit before being hurt. Yes, Werth ought to return to something like last-season form eventually. Can't guess how long "eventually" will be. A reasonable guess about next year: Werth will have slipped a little in fielding and hitting, and Taylor will have improved.



Offline GburgNatsFan

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Re: Michael Taylor superstar
« Reply #133: July 17, 2015, 09:51:04 PM »
So does the lineup when he leads off.
The whole OF settles down when Span plays CF. Taylor seems fast and elegant, but not quite sure where to play before a pitch and how to play when a ball is hit. Taylor is a fine LF, but CF demands more than he's got now. Maybe in a few seasons, but now he reminds me of the year that Harper played CF: superior speed and arm, but a little shaky.

Hitting? I prefer the current Span to the current Taylor, and the current Taylor to Werth as he hit before being hurt. Yes, Werth ought to return to something like last-season form eventually. Can't guess how long "eventually" will be. A reasonable guess about next year: Werth will have slipped a little in fielding and hitting, and Taylor will have improved.

Offline Matugi

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Re: Michael Taylor superstar
« Reply #134: July 18, 2015, 09:03:14 AM »
Taylor = Carlos Gomez.  Look up the numbers.  Uncanny.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Michael Taylor superstar
« Reply #135: July 20, 2015, 09:36:57 PM »
Best defensive outfielder in the MLB.

Offline whytev

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Re: Michael Taylor superstar
« Reply #136: July 20, 2015, 10:03:03 PM »
Best defensive outfielder in the MLB.

He's been scuffling with the bat for two weeks now though.

Online Mathguy

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Re: Michael Taylor superstar
« Reply #137: July 20, 2015, 10:21:55 PM »
Naa - not even the best defensive outfielder on the Nationals.  But that was a great play tonight

Best defensive outfielder in the MLB.

Offline aussienatsfan

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Re: Michael Taylor superstar
« Reply #138: July 20, 2015, 10:29:30 PM »
he's young, he's learning, let him play until everyone is healthy or producing at a far higher level

Offline Matugi

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Re: Michael Taylor superstar
« Reply #139: July 20, 2015, 10:36:12 PM »
Naa - not even the best defensive outfielder on the Nationals.

This just isn't true.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Michael Taylor superstar
« Reply #140: July 20, 2015, 10:45:06 PM »
If you sign Span to 3-4 years you trade Taylor. Werth has 2 years left. Taylor isn't going to get enough ABs to develop into a regular unless he plays 4 to 5 times a week. Look at Souza now he is in his 1st year as a regular.

Given this team's injury problems he probably would. Simply teach Werth to play first. When Zim goes down, Werth moves to first and plays LF. When Harper/Span/Werth get hurt, Taylor plays. He's gotten in 75 gsmes this season. He could easily get in 75-100 over the next two seasons.

Offline PC

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Re: Michael Taylor superstar
« Reply #141: July 20, 2015, 10:56:37 PM »
Given this team's injury problems he probably would. Simply teach Werth to play first. When Zim goes down, Werth moves to first and plays LF. When Harper/Span/Werth get hurt, Taylor plays. He's gotten in 75 gsmes this season. He could easily get in 75-100 over the next two seasons.

...and you know he will.

You can assume that Zimmerman will miss at least 60 games every year.  It would be wise if you planned for it.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Michael Taylor superstar
« Reply #142: July 20, 2015, 11:09:54 PM »
Best defensive outfielder in the MLB.
Naa - not even the best defensive outfielder on the Nationals.  But that was a great play tonight

Best UZR amongst MLB outfielders.

Offline Truconfidence

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Re: Michael Taylor superstar
« Reply #143: July 20, 2015, 11:22:47 PM »
Given this team's injury problems he probably would. Simply teach Werth to play first. When Zim goes down, Werth moves to first and plays LF. When Harper/Span/Werth get hurt, Taylor plays. He's gotten in 75 gsmes this season. He could easily get in 75-100 over the next two seasons.
This was in response to people talking about resigning Span which because of his core issues. I'd rather not sign him back at all. Avoid the albatross effect again we have 2 of them for at least 2 years no need for a 3rd contract like that. Sign someone else to play 1B who can also play OF.

Offline Baseball is Life

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Re: Michael Taylor superstar
« Reply #144: July 20, 2015, 11:41:27 PM »
I'm finally coming around on Taylor's defense. I know all the metrics say he's the second coming of Willie Mays out there but I didn't see it with my eyes. He just didn't look smooth (and still doesn't) but he can run them down, that's for sure.

Offline Ali the Baseball Cat

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Re: Michael Taylor superstar
« Reply #145: July 20, 2015, 11:47:37 PM »
He's by far the most articulate player on the team, so who cares about the rest
I'm finally coming around on Taylor's defense. I know all the metrics say he's the second coming of Willie Mays out there but I didn't see it with my eyes. He just didn't look smooth (and still doesn't) but he can run them down, that's for sure.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Michael Taylor superstar
« Reply #146: July 20, 2015, 11:51:31 PM »
He's by far the most articulate player on the team, so who cares about the rest
More articulate than Desi? 

Offline Optics

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Re: Michael Taylor superstar
« Reply #147: July 20, 2015, 11:53:53 PM »
Give him another year or two to refine his game and he's going to be a perennial All-Star and Gold Glover.

Offline Matugi

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Re: Michael Taylor superstar
« Reply #148: July 21, 2015, 12:08:53 AM »
Player A batted .250/.285/.349 through this date in his first year in the bigs, walking 3.6% of the time and striking out 23.7% of the time and hit 5 HR with 32 RBI, a wRC+ of 68.

Player B batted .235/.283/.356 through this date in his first year in the bigs, walking 6.4% of the time and striking out 32% of the time and hit 6 HR with 32 RBIs, a wRC+ of 70.

One of these players is listed at 6'3, 220 lbs.  The other player is listed at 6'3, 210 llbs.

One of these players then went on to put up a 7.5 win season later on, and his considered one of the best defensive centerfielders of his generation.  That player is Carlos Gomez.

I'll let you figure out which slash line is his and which is Michael Taylor's.

Offline Ray D

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Re: Michael Taylor superstar
« Reply #149: July 21, 2015, 10:13:35 AM »
Naa - not even the best defensive outfielder on the Nationals.  But that was a great play tonight

Right, it was a great play.  The difference between Taylor and Span is, if it had been Span who made that play, nobody would be talking about it, because it would have been a routine play for Span, he would have made it look easy.