Author Topic: Danny Espinosa loves 2015 - at least half  (Read 9421 times)

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Offline Slateman

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We already have a thread for this, so the mods will probably come along and move/combine. But yes, it's pretty freaking awesome what Espinosa has done so far. Glad to see it. With a .305 BABIP, it's more than likely this is sustainable. 3 WAR Espinosa is back baby!!!


Now, if they'd just sit Desmond

Offline aussienatsfan

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We already have a thread for this, so the mods will probably come along and move/combine. But yes, it's pretty freaking awesome what Espinosa has done so far. Glad to see it. With a .305 BABIP, it's more than likely this is sustainable. 3 WAR Espinosa is back baby!!!


Now, if they'd just sit Desmond

Yeah I thought there was buy I couldn't for the life of me find it.

Maybe espi could play short when rendon comes back, yunel to 2nd and were Desmond free

Offline houston-nat

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Percentage of balls (OUTSIDE strike zone) that Danny Espinosa swings at

2011 - 32.1%
2012 - 40.5%
2013 - 42.7%
2014 - 38.1%
2015 - 32.7%

Percentage of balls (INSIDE strike zone) that Danny Espinosa swings at

2014 - 70.8%
2015 - 77.1%

How often does Danny Espinosa make contact, when swinging at any pitch?

2011 - 75.1%
2012 - 70.6%
2013 - 70.0%
2014 - 66.0%
2015 - 78.3%

CAVEAT: Pitches are throwing more pitches in the strike zone than ever before, because they're not yet afraid of Espinosa again. It does look like he's being pitched to slightly differently.

But, until pitchers start throwing Danny lots of breaking balls again, there is strong evidence that he has changed his approach, he really is laying off more crappy pitches, and he is making way, way better contact when he swings, even if he swings at balls. If this change in plate approach is for real, then good Danny is back. And yes, he could be a 3-WAR player again (he's on pace for 4!).

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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We already have a thread for this, so the mods will probably come along and move/combine. But yes, it's pretty freaking awesome what Espinosa has done so far. Glad to see it. With a .305 BABIP, it's more than likely this is sustainable. 3 WAR Espinosa is back baby!!!


Now, if they'd just sit Desmond
Oh, you mind reader. 

On the merits, stat heads will say that K% and contact % on swings are one of the first rate stats that stabilize.  Is he doing something different?  Looks like his lefty swing is less long and loopy, but I will defer to others.  Is he doing something different to track the ball better?  I half hear FP doing analysis of his stance and he says "yes," but I can't recite it back right now.  So, it is possible this is a new Danny.  Have to watch for a slip back into old habits, but as long as he keeps the changes, then yes.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Danny Espinosa loves April and May 2015
« Reply #79: May 12, 2015, 03:06:56 PM »
Oh, you mind reader. 

On the merits, stat heads will say that K% and contact % on swings are one of the first rate stats that stabilize.  Is he doing something different?  Looks like his lefty swing is less long and loopy, but I will defer to others.  Is he doing something different to track the ball better?  I half hear FP doing analysis of his stance and he says "yes," but I can't recite it back right now.  So, it is possible this is a new Danny.  Have to watch for a slip back into old habits, but as long as he keeps the changes, then yes.

It's possible that sitting in the minors last year scared the hell out of him and he actually fixed his issues rather than watch his career slip away- I'm starting to think this is the case

Offline Jordanz Meatballz

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Re: Danny Espinosa loves April and May 2015
« Reply #80: May 12, 2015, 04:00:54 PM »
People don't like to blame injuries, but it was probably the injuries that held back Danny's progression. Same for Harper in 2013-2014, though that's better recognized. There's no way to know for sure with Espinosa, because he was dishonest about the injury when it happened in 2012.

Offline nfotiu

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Re: Danny Espinosa loves April and May 2015
« Reply #81: May 12, 2015, 05:21:35 PM »
Injuries can do funny things.  Especially when playing through them and compensating for them in your swing.

FP said he stopped the leg kick hitting left. 

This is really about where he projected to be at this stage of his career so he could be for real. 

He is such a good infielder and baserunner, it would be awesome for this team if he could keep his hitting up.  Considering his defense, speed and pop, a .250 hitting Espinosa is a very valuable player.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Danny Espinosa loves April and May 2015
« Reply #82: May 12, 2015, 06:14:46 PM »
I still think there's a little more time before we can evaluate his progression (or lack thereof).

First 15 games: .277/.404/.468 with 8/8 BB/KK ratio in 58 PA
Last 10 games: .250/.250/.472 with 0/12 BB/K ratio in 36 PA

So there's a lot of regression back to a less patient Danny who just happened to also hit a couple HR and hide a 33% K-rate.

Hopefully he consolidates into a Danny that walks 8+% of the time and strikeouts out ~25% of the time. We know that Danny, we can live with that Danny. It seems like he may have found something new against RHP, and that's the most important thing.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Danny Espinosa loves April and May 2015
« Reply #83: May 12, 2015, 06:46:15 PM »
I still think there's a little more time before we can evaluate his progression (or lack thereof).

First 15 games: .277/.404/.468 with 8/8 BB/KK ratio in 58 PA
Last 10 games: .250/.250/.472 with 0/12 BB/K ratio in 36 PA

So there's a lot of regression back to a less patient Danny who just happened to also hit a couple HR and hide a 33% K-rate.

Hopefully he consolidates into a Danny that walks 8+% of the time and strikeouts out ~25% of the time. We know that Danny, we can live with that Danny. It seems like he may have found something new against RHP, and that's the most important thing.

I'd be interested in seeing what the RH/LH splits over that time are.  It's hard to miss that every single multi-hit game he's had has featured a majority of the innings pitched by lefties on the other team (all LH starters except last night, when Nuño pitched 7 in relief).  Not all the hits have been against lefties, of course, but it's still notable.  I know he did have a hit off Collmenter last night - but then again, I think I might have gotten a hit against Collmenter last night.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Danny Espinosa loves April and May 2015
« Reply #84: May 12, 2015, 06:51:14 PM »
I'd be interested in seeing what the RH/LH splits over that time are.  It's hard to miss that every single multi-hit game he's had has featured a majority of the innings pitched by lefties on the other team (all LH starters except last night, when Nuño pitched 7 in relief).  Not all the hits have been against lefties, of course, but it's still notable.  I know he did have a hit off Collmenter last night - but then again, I think I might have gotten a hit against Collmenter last night.

Strange splits. He's gotten really lucky against LHP on balls in play - he's hitting .318 with no power, only 2 walks and 7 strikeouts in 24 PA.

He's hitting .246/.333/.508 against RHP but with a really nice-looking 6/13 BB/K ratio in 70 PA.

His transformation against RHP has been the revelation that's most important. These splits are the exact opposite of recent years for him. As long as he's hitting RHP, he's an everyday player for sure.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Danny Espinosa loves April and May 2015
« Reply #85: May 12, 2015, 06:58:32 PM »
Strange splits. He's gotten really lucky against LHP on balls in play - he's hitting .318 with no power, only 2 walks and 7 strikeouts in 24 PA.

He's hitting .246/.333/.508 against RHP but with a really nice-looking 6/13 BB/K ratio in 70 PA.

His transformation against RHP has been the revelation that's most important. These splits are the exact opposite of recent years for him. As long as he's hitting RHP, he's an everyday player for sure.

Yeah, I noticed that too.  What I was more asking was whether that downtick was due to him just taking more ABs against RHPs than before (as he's a lower average hitter lefthanded), but the uptick in strikeouts suggests it's not just that. 

Offline dracnal

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Re: Danny Espinosa loves April and May 2015
« Reply #86: May 13, 2015, 09:22:35 AM »
I know it's really small numbers, but is there a breakdown of how many of those strikeouts this year were looking rather than swinging? And even better breaking them out by the 8/8 and 0/12 time period? The umps seem to have their consistent inconsistency this year so I'm willing to bet some of the full count caught looking K could be ruled BB at other times.  If he went from a large %age of the first 8 being looking to all but one of the 12 being swinging, I'll be more concerned that it's a regression and the league found the hole(s) in his swing again.

Offline houston-nat

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Re: Danny Espinosa loves April and May 2015
« Reply #87: May 19, 2015, 09:10:40 AM »
Danny Espinosa's contact rate has increased 12% this year. Highest increase of any player in the MLB.

Offline dracnal

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Re: Danny Espinosa loves April and May 2015
« Reply #88: May 19, 2015, 10:24:40 AM »
Danny Espinosa's contact rate has increased 12% this year. Highest increase of any player in the MLB.

Amazing that it took a hitting coach this many years to realize Espinosa thought the objective was to cool the ball off with gentle breeze from whiffing bat.  Tell the man 'No Danny. Hit the ball with the wooden thing,' and it's like he's a whole new player.

Offline Minty Fresh

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Re: Danny Espinosa loves April and May 2015
« Reply #89: May 19, 2015, 10:38:35 AM »
Danny Espinosa's contact rate has increased 12% this year. Highest increase of any player in the MLB.

:clap:

Danny has been frustrating to watch for the past few years but this is good to see.  I'm rooting for him to succeed.

:clap:

Offline Slateman

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Re: Danny Espinosa loves April and May 2015
« Reply #90: May 19, 2015, 10:38:35 AM »
On a 4+ WAR pace.

If Rendon comes back and Escboar is still hitting well, does Danny displace Desmond at short?

Offline wpa2629

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Re: Danny Espinosa loves April and May 2015
« Reply #91: May 19, 2015, 10:39:30 AM »
On a 4+ WAR pace.

If Rendon comes back and Escboar is still hitting well, does Danny displace Desmond at short?

His arm is ridiculous

Those 2 throws from Third the other night were like pictures :az:

Offline dracnal

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Re: Danny Espinosa loves April and May 2015
« Reply #92: May 19, 2015, 10:40:49 AM »
In all seriousness, as much as I've wanted Danny gone over the years when he was just killing us, I am glad for him that he's having a great season.  I thought the 2012 Danny was a mirage, but maybe he's turned a corner for good.

Offline mimontero88

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Re: Danny Espinosa loves April and May 2015
« Reply #93: May 19, 2015, 02:10:44 PM »
When are we going to change the title of this thread to omit the months?  The kid is finally becoming the player we all thought he could be back in 2011.  I was at the game against the Mets where he hit the second and third homers of his career, the third being a grand slam and I thought he would be an absolute stud at 2B.  Maybe the arm issues he's dealt with over the last couple of years really have just been holding him back.  I'm not convinced this isn't a flash in the pan but I'm not convinced it is either.

Offline Optics

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Re: Danny Espinosa loves April and May 2015
« Reply #94: May 19, 2015, 02:19:22 PM »
I'd be perfectly happy if he hit .250 with close to 20 homers and continued to play great defense. That's fine #8 hole hitter in the NL #s.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Danny Espinosa loves April and May 2015
« Reply #95: May 19, 2015, 02:53:35 PM »
When are we going to change the title of this thread to omit the months?  The kid is finally becoming the player we all thought he could be back in 2011.  I was at the game against the Mets where he hit the second and third homers of his career, the third being a grand slam and I thought he would be an absolute stud at 2B.  Maybe the arm issues he's dealt with over the last couple of years really have just been holding him back.  I'm not convinced this isn't a flash in the pan but I'm not convinced it is either.
Not before June.

Offline welch

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Re: Danny Espinosa loves April and May 2015
« Reply #96: May 19, 2015, 10:51:27 PM »
I'd be happy if Danny strikeout less than 25% of the time. He has been at 33 - 35% and worse most of his MLB career. Fewer K's, more hits, more walks = mighty good. 20 homers is not good if he leads the NL in K's. If he hits solidly, then he'll get enough home runs. When he swung from the heels every time, he struck out too often.

Stuck in my memory: Danny swinging and missing badly on a ball that breaks down and outside. His bat kicks up dirt

Offline whytev

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Re: Danny Espinosa loves April and May 2015
« Reply #97: May 19, 2015, 10:57:53 PM »
His glove today though.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Danny Espinosa loves April and May 2015
« Reply #98: May 20, 2015, 12:12:30 AM »
I'd be happy if Danny strikeout less than 25% of the time. He has been at 33 - 35% and worse most of his MLB career. Fewer K's, more hits, more walks = mighty good. 20 homers is not good if he leads the NL in K's. If he hits solidly, then he'll get enough home runs. When he swung from the heels every time, he struck out too often.

Stuck in my memory: Danny swinging and missing badly on a ball that breaks down and outside. His bat kicks up dirt
no one was going to touch Betances today.  I was basically in a mode of, "let's wait 4 innings" when it got to the 8th, figuring there were 8 Ks in the next 12 batters, but Miller's lack of control shocked me.

Offline whytev

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Re: Danny Espinosa loves April and May 2015
« Reply #99: May 26, 2015, 10:56:05 PM »
Someone is 4 for his last 25.

Small sample size, but you gotta be on watch with this guy.