Author Topic: Expansion cities (breakout from former nats thread)  (Read 6795 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline _sturt_

  • Posts: 570
  • "Le Grande Orange"...Colt 45/Astro/Expo(Nat) Great
    Adding to the discussion, these two are a little more dated, but still have some valid points nonetheless...

http://www.bizjournals.com/bizjournals/on-numbers/scott-thomas/2011/08/baseball-has-few-options-for-expansion.html?page=all

Quote
If Major League Baseball ever decides to expand, it will have very few options.

Only one market -- Riverside-San Bernardino, Calif. -- has an income base that’s large enough to support a new MLB team, according to an On Numbers study.

Seven other markets have borderline potential, based on an analysis of total personal income (TPI). Prominent in that group are a city that has already lost an MLB franchise (Montreal) and another (Las Vegas) whose gambling industry makes baseball officials very nervous.

And that’s the extent of the available choices.

On Numbers focused on 59 U.S. and Canadian markets that do not have MLB franchises, assessing their financial ability to support new teams.

Each market was rated on a 100-point scale. Riverside-San Bernardino, an area of 4.2 million people east of Los Angeles, received the sole perfect score, thanks to its TPI of $125.8 billion. An MLB team requires an income base of $85.4 billion for adequate support, as estimated by On Numbers.

Montreal’s 97 was the only other mark above 82 points. Ratings for all 59 markets can be found in the database below.



http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18886

Quote
...Let’s say that baseball was going to get serious about relocation or expansion; how would we go about rating the potential suitors?

The methodology I’m going to use is based on what MLB requested of markets when the Expos were up for relocation. (As a matter of disclosure, I worked with the city of Portland in 2000-01, which is where they ultimately sent the league this fully-vetted document.)

The following information was used to derive rankings:

- 2010 Census population (for international markets, other sources have been used).
- Household median income based on census.
- Distance to the nearest existing MLB market or markets (relates to cannibalizing fan base at the attendance and television level).
- Number of existing professional sport franchises within the market. This derives the population base per franchise. The more franchises, the more diluted the market becomes in terms of fans for season tickets and corporate sponsorships.
- Television markets are defined not only by Designated Market Area (DMA) but by looking at MLB’s television territories, which are vastly larger than television DMA. Any team placed within the U.S. would carve up one or more clubs’ television territory. As we saw with the relocation of the Expos to DC, that aspect has profound impacts.
- The Arbitron Radio DMA is provided to show strength of radio audience.
- For relocation, possible interim facilities are provided. An expansion would most likely not require an interim facility while a new, state-of-the-art MLB stadium was being built. A listing of how many Fortune 500, 500 Global, or 1000 companies are within a market is provided. These companies would be key for sponsorships, possible naming rights, and corporate blocks of tickets which are becoming more and more common for lower bowl sales.
- International Markets do not have media rankings, but other forms of information are provided[/li][/list]
....

3. Portland, OR
Population (data): 593,820
Distance to Nearest MLB Market: Seattle (200 miles)
MLB Television Territories Impacted (data): Mariners
Median Household Income (2006-2010): $48,831
Television Information (data): (Ranks 22nd in DMA) 1,182,180 television households, 1.035 percent of US TV households
Radio Information (data): Arbitron ranking: 23rd (Metro 12+ population: 2,152,300)
Number of Major League Teams: 2 (NBA: Trail Blazers, MLS: Timbers)
Interim/New Facility location: PGE Park (seating capacity: 20,000, expandable to 25,000)
Population base per franchise (with MLB team): 197,940
Number of Fortune 1000 Companies: 5

Pros
Portland worked hard in 2003 to come up with a financing plan and actually pulled off state funding that never sunsets. With Oregon having a state income tax, the law on the books provides up to $150 million in funding by earmarking the income taxes the players (both home and away) and executives have to pay off the debt service. Portland also has the fully vetted finance plan they submitted to MLB as a jumping-off point. The plan outlines aspects such as local funding concepts, possible site locations, and 2003 figures for construction costs, which could be reused to calculate costs at a later time.

Portland is home to both Nike and the North American headquarters of adidas, making a sponsorship tug-of-war a possibility. (Would Nike allow “adidas Field” in their own backyard?)

Cons
While Portland can siphon population from Washington State’s Clark County, go much further north than Longview (approx 45 miles away) and it’s solid Mariners territory. Indeed, Portland is heavily involved in the Mariners’ marketing plans. A team in Portland would not sit well with the AL team to the north.

Other negatives revolve around the market itself. While it is the largest market with only one major league franchise (with the exception of Salem and Eugene, 100 miles to the south), there are pockets of rural area all around the city. Additionally, the small number of large corporations is not a strong point for Portland.

While PGE Park could be used as an interim facility, it’s an exceptional longshot now that it has been converted into a soccer-only venue. Getting into PGE Park means getting around MLS, and given the immense popularity of soccer in Portland, the odds of that are exceptionally long.

While a considerable percentage of fans from Portland make the 200-mile trip to Seattle to get their MLB fix, the market would have to overachieve from an attendance perspective beyond any honeymoon effect. Plus, in 2001 Portland was looking at an open air facility. While weather in Portland is some of the best in the country from July to September, spring can bring constant rain. Without a retractable roof, walk-up would be dinged considerably. In a small market, this would be something MLB would be looking to avoid.

2. Sacramento, CA
Population (data): 472,178
Distance to Nearest MLB Market: 81 miles (Oakland), 88 miles (San Francisco)
MLB Television Territories Impacted (data): Athletics, Giants
Median Household Income (2006-2010): $50,267
Television Information (data): Sacramento-Stockton-Modesto (Ranks 20th by DMA), 1,387,710 television households, 1.215 percent of US TV households
Radio Information (data): (Sacramento only) Arbitron ranking: 27th (Metro 12+ population: 1,887,800)
Number of Major League Teams: 1 (NBA: Sacramento Kings)
Interim/New Facility Location: Raley Stadium (max seating capacity: 14,111)
Population Base per Franchise (including MLB team): 236,089
Number of Fortune 1000 Global Companies: 1

Pros
Slowly but surely, Sacramento has continued to grow in population, and there is that “just maybe” element to the market. Its biggest plus, however, is that it’s within Oakland’s current broadcast territory. That makes a possible A’s relocation much easier to deal with. Even though the Giants call Sacramento part of their broadcast territory, the idea of having the A’s move out of the Bay Area and dropping the whole “move to San Jose” effort would seemingly make the Giants far more amicable to relocation. And while there has never been a direct correlation between minor league attendance and how a major league team has fared after arriving (they are, after all, very different products), the Rivercats of the PCL have been a consistent and steady draw, showing that folks in Sacramento love baseball. Reno isn’t exactly close, but it isn’t out of the realm of possibility for those in the Biggest Little City to make the trek to Sacramento in the summer to take in games.

Cons
Having only one Fortune 1000 company creates sponsorship issues, especially when you consider the NBA’s presence. Certainly the Maloofs, who own the Kings, would be none too pleased with the idea of an MLB team in their small market. The brothers have been working for years to land a new arena for the Kings, and relocation out of the market continues to be discussed. A push for MLB would cloud that effort, and it seems a given that they would pull every string they could find to thwart an effort.

1. Northern New Jersey
Population: The seven counties that are included in Northern New Jersey have a total population of 3,492,590, as of the 2000 U.S. Census (source)
Distance to Nearest MLB Market: New York (Bronx) (22 miles from Newark), Flushing (17.5 miles from Newark), Philadelphia (85 miles from Newark)
MLB Television Territories Impacted (data): Yankees, Mets
Median Household Income (2006-2010): $35,659 (Based on Newark)
Television Information (data): (New York) (Ranks 1st in DMA) 7,384,340 television households, 6.468 percent of US TV households
Radio Information (data): Arbitron ranking: 1st (New York Metro 12+ population: 15,867,400)
Number of Major League Teams (NY plus NJ): 10 (NHL: Devils, NHL: Islanders, NHL: Rangers, MLS: Red Bulls, NBA: Nets, NBA: New York Knicks, MLB: Yankees, MLB: Mets, NFL: Jets, NFL: Giants, plus the WNBA’s Liberty)
Interim/New Facility Location: Unknown.
Population Base per Franchise (with MLB team): 349,259
Number of Fortune 1000 Companies in NY (source): 50

Pros
It’s amazing given the large number of major league franchises that you still wind up with the New York/New Jersey area with plenty of populace, corporate base, and television and radio strength to support another. That’s why Northern New Jersey is the number one relocation/expansion market for MLB. It’s someplace that, if MLB’s owners were somehow willing to allow it to happen, the Rays could potentially relocate to. Since there are caveats with every available market out there, why not go where the strongest chance of success is available?

Cons
The biggest (and probably only) thing blocking a third MLB team in the New York area are the Yankees and Mets (and, yes, most likely the Phillies). The heel-digging would be tremendous on the part of these clubs, and the compensation to placate two or three clubs would be tremendous. Other than that issue (and yes, it’s more than an 800-pound gorilla, to be sure), the only other issue might be an interim stadium (you could play at the Trenton Thunder’s Waterfront Park, but it only has a seating capacity of 6,500). Still, that issue of getting around the Yankees, Mets, and Phillies is massive. The political dance would be one for the ages to pull off a team in Northern New Jersey.

Soooooo....

Taken at face value.... there are arguments for MLB being smart to add new franchises in metro NY and metro LA.

Offline skippy1999

  • Posts: 14641

I think they should put a new team in Montreal.

Why? 

Offline BrandonK

  • Posts: 8170
  • #LOLNats
San Marcos would be such a turd place for a team. HELL NO! I've never been to a Round Rock game, but that seems like a decent spot for a team. Traffic would be hell to get to a game though. SA is a better option (in the city)

Offline Squab

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 4255
  • I'm feeling a tear coming on.
As a DFW resident, can I say no? Having our baseball team in Arlington is a great big pain. It means every game involves 90 minutes' round-trip driving. Having a team in San Marcos would be similar, but if anything, even worse - 35 miles from each city.

I think they should put a new team in Montreal.

Oh yeah it'd probably still suck, but I'd have a team close by whether I was in San Antonio or Austin :P

Online varoadking

  • Posts: 19237
...every game involves 90 minutes' round-trip driving.

Our round trip to Nats Park is about 4 hours, unless they are working on I-95...then who knows.  We can only manage to get to 15 or so games a year.  Moving is not in the cards.


Offline whytev

  • Posts: 8723
As a DFW resident, can I say no? Having our baseball team in Arlington is a great big pain. It means every game involves 90 minutes' round-trip driving. Having a team in San Marcos would be similar, but if anything, even worse - 35 miles from each city.

I think they should put a new team in Montreal.

It's always gonna be a football state.

Offline BrandonK

  • Posts: 8170
  • #LOLNats
It's always gonna be a football state.

Rangers have done great in attendance + the huge TV market. Plenty to go around. Once Houston starts winning again, I bet they'll do well too

Offline DPMOmaha

  • Posts: 21427
  • Take two of these 30 minutes before first pitch.
It's always gonna be a football state.
It's a football country, with a few localized exceptions.

Offline houston-nat

  • Posts: 18980
It's always gonna be a football state.
Except San Antonio is such a basketball town they don't even remember other sports exist. San Antonio's Spurs love is borderline Packersesque.

Offline Ali the Baseball Cat

  • Posts: 14350
  • babble on
La Habana

Offline KnorrForYourMoney

  • Posts: 15241
  • Nats RP have no nerve
Putting a team back in Montreal is an awful idea.

San Antonio isn't really a good fit for baseball.  It's rather small in terms of media market size, which is increasingly important in the age of the ubiquitous RSN.

Offline dcpatti

  • Posts: 1455
La Habana

This. Havana will have a MLB team before Montreal or Charlotte.

Online varoadking

  • Posts: 19237
This. Havana will have a MLB team before Montreal or Charlotte.

Who will be able to afford the price of admission?

Offline houston-nat

  • Posts: 18980
Who will be able to afford the price of admission?

This is a real problem. Also, Havana won't have luxury boxes.

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 9671
This is a real problem. Also, Havana won't have luxury boxes.
Sure they would. Raul and the party regulars.

Offline mitlen

  • Posts: 52203
  • We had 'em all the way.
Sure they would. Raul and the party regulars.

This is where I can toss in one of my favorite words  ....  apparatchik.

Online HalfSmokes

  • Posts: 18600
Grand Cayman doesn't have many people, but they sure do have a bunch of corporations to buy boxes

Offline whytev

  • Posts: 8723
This is a real problem. Also, Havana won't have luxury boxes.

Yep. México City is the answer.

Offline dcpatti

  • Posts: 1455
Who will be able to afford the price of admission?

I think the Americanization of Cuba is going to happen much faster than anyone expects. Starwood is already getting set up and running. Chances are, Starbucks won't be long. There will be a lot of "new money" types in Cuba in the next decade or so.  I also think bigger park with lower average ticket price and maybe some sort of MLB seed money or subsidy, given that there will also be a lot of untapped talent becoming more accessible (hence MLB has a vested interest).

Online varoadking

  • Posts: 19237
I think the Americanization of Cuba is going to happen much faster than anyone expects. Starwood is already getting set up and running. Chances are, Starbucks won't be long. There will be a lot of "new money" types in Cuba in the next decade or so.  I also think bigger park with lower average ticket price and maybe some sort of MLB seed money or subsidy, given that there will also be a lot of untapped talent becoming more accessible (hence MLB has a vested interest).

I'm willing to bet it doesn't happen in my lifetime...but I'm pushing 64, so that ain't sayin' much...  ;)

Online HalfSmokes

  • Posts: 18600
I think the Americanization of Cuba is going to happen much faster than anyone expects. Starwood is already getting set up and running. Chances are, Starbucks won't be long. There will be a lot of "new money" types in Cuba in the next decade or so.  I also think bigger park with lower average ticket price and maybe some sort of MLB seed money or subsidy, given that there will also be a lot of untapped talent becoming more accessible (hence MLB has a vested interest).

It depends on what attraction Cuba holds for western companies- tourism won't create many locals who can afford luxury boxes (just look at the rest of the Caribbean), and cheap labor is only as draw if it stays cheap. 

Online JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 23825
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
I think the Americanization of Cuba is going to happen much faster than anyone expects. Starwood is already getting set up and running. Chances are, Starbucks won't be long. There will be a lot of "new money" types in Cuba in the next decade or so.  I also think bigger park with lower average ticket price and maybe some sort of MLB seed money or subsidy, given that there will also be a lot of untapped talent becoming more accessible (hence MLB has a vested interest).
I could see the government owning the team and subsidizing it, keeping tickets low cost, and paying the players in dollars.  maybe have it stocked with  cuban players like les habs used to have a gallic draft.