Yoan Moncada to Red Sox

[NJ Ave]

Supposedly for about $30 million.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/red-sox-reportedly-land-yoan-moncada/

While it would be nice to have him, we now have an estimate of what he would have cost. $30 million for the bonus, plus the $30 million penalty to MLB for blowing through your international bonus pool ($1 for $1 on that).

Plus there's the fact that this is an international signing bonus, it is NOT a major league contract similar to Jose Abreu or Yasiel Puig. So you're paying $60 million JUST for the prospect. On top of that you're on the hook for his arbitration salaries, which you HOPE will be as high as possible (otherwise he's a bad player and you just wasted $60 million). So that's probably another $30 million, maybe more depending on how high player salaries climb.

So you're spending $90 million on a player without any free agent years being included, and where 3 of those years are LOCKED per the CBA at about $500K per year.

It's a huge amount of money and, considering the failure rate of even top prospects, a huge risk.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/02/red-sox-to-sign-yoan-moncada.html

Motherfreaker

i'm not sure I get it.  I guess they figure between Sandoval, Pedroia, and Ramirez, at least one them will be out of position over the next couple of years.  Napoli's contract is ending, so first is open, and I don't think a Craig / Nava combo is what they have in mind.  Perhaps next year this guy pushes Bogaerts to 3d, but more likely Hanley or Panda move to 1st and Moncada moves to 3d or CF (Castillo to RF and Betts to LF).  Eventually, Ortiz retires, opening up more shuffling.  Pedroia really breaks down, Moncada is an option, too.

There's still prospect depth behind this guy, too.

[imref]

Pedroia is almost 32, and figure Mocanda is only 19.  So if he's ready in 3 years then he steps into the 2B spot and Pedrioa moves into the OF or DH.  Or, they could put Mocanda at 3rd and shift Panda to DH replacing Ortiz.   Or even play Sandoval at 1B?  There are lots of possibilities, but the bottom line is they just added a prospect folks are comparing to Robbie Cano.  I agree with NJ, big risk, but it sure would have been nice if we had grabbed him.

[HalfSmokes]

The funny think is, I think this gives some insight as to how valuable prospects are- on the open market, a 19 year who people think is a top 20 prospect is worth $60 million. It puts the 'record' bonuses paid to number 1 picks nicely into context

[Slateman]

i'm not sure I get it.  I guess they figure between Sandoval, Pedroia, and Ramirez, at least one them will be out of position over the next couple of years.  Napoli's contract is ending, so first is open, and I don't think a Craig / Nava combo is what they have in mind.  Perhaps next year this guy pushes Bogaerts to 3d, but more likely Hanley or Panda move to 1st and Moncada moves to 3d or CF (Castillo to RF and Betts to LF).  Eventually, Ortiz retires, opening up more shuffling.  Pedroia really breaks down, Moncada is an option, too.

There's still prospect depth behind this guy, too.

It is interesting to see the depth that the Red Sox have developed. Pedroia may be 32, but he's under contract until 2021. Betts is probably as good a second baseman as he is a CFer.  And they're still hoping JBJr can figure it out. Red Sox have some great depth. I wonder if they are looking to trade for a frontline starter.

[NJ Ave]

The funny think is, I think this gives some insight as to how valuable prospects are- on the open market, a 19 year who people think is a top 20 prospect is worth $60 million. It puts the 'record' bonuses paid to number 1 picks nicely into context

It does seem like the world has gone a little prospect-crazy, and in particular Cuban prospect-crazy.

I mean, look at it this way - how many times would a team EVER sit a prospect down in AA and say hey, here's a contract for you to look at. It buys out your 6 team control years, should you ever reach the majors, for somewhere between $60 and $90 million, depending on performance bonuses.

Isn't that essentially what is being done here?

[imref]

It is interesting to see the depth that the Red Sox have developed. Pedroia may be 32, but he's under contract until 2021. Betts is probably as good a second baseman as he is a CFer.  And they're still hoping JBJr can figure it out. Red Sox have some great depth. I wonder if they are looking to trade for a frontline starter.

Let the Zimmermann to the BoSox rumors begin again....

[mitlen]

There goes the snow removal budget.   

[NJ Ave]

It is interesting to see the depth that the Red Sox have developed. Pedroia may be 32, but he's under contract until 2021. Betts is probably as good a second baseman as he is a CFer.  And they're still hoping JBJr can figure it out. Red Sox have some great depth. I wonder if they are looking to trade for a frontline starter.

I certainly think this is part of it, especially since a frontline starter at the trade deadline will cost about 50% more than a frontline starter in the offseason. So if you have to pay so much to go out and get a #1 starter with years of team control left, it'll hurt a lot less to give up Betts with Moncada around.

[HalfSmokes]

It does seem like the world has gone a little prospect-crazy, and in particular Cuban prospect-crazy.

I mean, look at it this way - how many times would a team EVER sit a prospect down in AA and say hey, here's a contract for you to look at. It buys out your 6 team control years, should you ever reach the majors, for somewhere between $60 and $90 million, depending on performance bonuses.

Isn't that essentially what is being done here?

My guess would be that if any top 20 guy somehow got free agency (just imagine a messersmith type paperwork screwup) they would command a similar amount. The value is in having the guy in your system not in having those years cost controlled.

[Slateman]

Let the Zimmermann to the BoSox rumors begin again....

Naw, trade Strasburg, sign Zimmermann to a 200 million deal.

[NJ Ave]

My guess would be that if any top 20 guy somehow got free agency (just imagine a messersmith type paperwork screwup) they would command a similar amount. The value is in having the guy in your system not in having those years cost controlled.

Maybe, but you're ignoring the fact that this is not the "market" even for similar players on the international market. You could sign the top 20 Dominican prospects for a lot less than $60 million - so you're telling me that Moncada going to return more WAR than the top 20 Dominican prospects in a given year?

[NJ Ave]

I'm just saying for this to "work out" he really needs to be a 4+ win type player.  Like a Pedroia or Utley or Cano type 2B. Even a Howie Kendrick will be extremely disappointing compared to the amount of international talent you could have signed for $60 million.

If he's a 4+ win 2B, I think you're right - they probably won't care how much they spent on him.

[HalfSmokes]

Maybe, but you're ignoring the fact that this is not the "market" even for similar players on the international market. You could sign the top 20 Dominican prospects for a lot less than $60 million - so you're telling me that Moncada going to return more WAR than the top 20 Dominican prospects in a given year?

what you can't sign is a guy who will slot into BA top 20 (http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/will-yoan-moncada-rank-top-100/ has him as a tossup with Sano). Those guys never hit the open market and there is nothing really similar- the Dominicans are usually 16 (an age which carries a much higher risk or failure) and even they are starting to command multi million dollar bonuses. Top draft picks get millions even when they have almost no leverage (at least no compared to what a player has on the open market).

[Kevrock]

That is a lot of luchini.

[NJ Ave]

what you can't sign is a guy who will slot into BA top 20 (http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/will-yoan-moncada-rank-top-100/ has him as a tossup with Sano). Those guys never hit the open market and there is nothing really similar- the Dominicans are usually 16 (an age which carries a much higher risk or failure) and even they are starting to command multi million dollar bonuses. Top draft picks get millions even when they have almost no leverage (at least no compared to what a player has on the open market).

Yasiel Puig signed a deal that was basically half as lucrative 2.5 years ago, and was 2 years old and closer to the majors. Jose Abreu is going to end up getting less for basically his entire prime years, which might be 5-6 WAR years. I think Moncada clearly benefited from the recent success of a few successful Cuban ballplayers.

If I was going to put this kind of money into an International signing that was going to limit my bonuses for 2 years afterwards, I would probably go for a ridiculous amount of high-quality DR signs and hope to get 3-5 productive players out of it, not one Cuban.

Then again, we haven't seen the end of the Red Sox moves, maybe they'll sign all the DR kids as well!

[PC]

Well, whenever he gets to AAA, he won't be playing in Pawtucket!

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/02/23/the-red-sox-triple-a-team-is-leaving-pawtucket/

[HalfSmokes]

Puig and Cespedes definitely got the ball rolling. I think their success helped to elevate people's view of Cuban prospects and teams reacted by upping the value they place on them. Eventually one will bust and people will probably reevaluate them again.

What is is success rate of the top Dominican signings every year? I've never seen anything and the gap between signing and mlb debut is so long you forget about them 

The red sox had already blown their international pool before this http://m.mlb.com/news/article/82719548/red-sox-sign-international-pitching-prospects-christopher-acosta-and-anderson-espinoza so they're behaving logically for a team with resources to blow

 

[imref]

i wonder what impact the opening of Cuba will have on this system, at some point you'd think MLB will get away from its current rules and just hold an open draft for everyone and anyone.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I'm just saying for this to "work out" he really needs to be a 4+ win type player.  Like a Pedroia or Utley or Cano type 2B. Even a Howie Kendrick will be extremely disappointing compared to the amount of international talent you could have signed for $60 million.

If he's a 4+ win 2B, I think you're right - they probably won't care how much they spent on him.

What I've seen is that he would be the #10-15 prospect in MLB, and players in that range average 10 -15 WAR in the cost controlled years.  I don't know the break even.

One thing to remember is that, due to prior signings, the Sox were going to be out of the international pool for more than $300K signings for the next two periods.  This was sort of a use it or lose it opportunity to bring in a very high level talent.  This does not impact their ability to sign the #7 pick in the Rule 4 draft this June, and it has no lasting MLB salary cap implications.

For the Nats, I don't think they are in the position of being limited in the international market.  They will get a chance to play next year without having to compete with the NYY, BOS, or the LAD.  That may be strategery right there.  Of course, if MLB now changes the rules on the international FA signing, well, the stategery does not play out.

Another comp folks have suggested is the signing of Soler.  Soler was not signed with the international pool limits, but he was a guy who needed development and went for $30MM or so.

[Kevrock]

Well, whenever he gets to AAA, he won't be playing in Pawtucket!

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/02/23/the-red-sox-triple-a-team-is-leaving-pawtucket/

That's just weird.

[whytev]

Let the Zimmermann to the BoSox rumors begin again....

This changes nothing this year. They have to wait for this kid. If they have a surplus later, they have a trade chip or two.

[blue911]

There once was a team from Pawtucket

[NJ Ave]

I guess that ultimately, I just disagree with the way prospects (in particular, Cuban prospects) are being valued, and don't think you should pay a premium in contract length or dollars for 2.6 WAR players (which is what top ten hitting prospects average over their 6 years of team control).

I'll be interested to see what Howie Kendrick gets next offseason, or how this looks compared to what Chase Utley extended for (basically $15 million per year as long as he's healthy, at which point his options stop vesting).

And if he has to move from 2B to RF or something, which is supposed to be a pretty big possibility, that'll mean he basically has to be a star hitter.

[CALSGR8]

I heard the team will have to pay all taxes to the amt of 63 mil.