It's definitely a really aggressive path that usually only super advanced hitting prospects like Kris Bryant or Anthony Rendon follow.
If you look at the 2011 draft that had a lot of 4-year college talent in it, guys like Kolten Wong, George Springer, Joe Panik and C.J. Cron all had their first major action in 2014. So I agree it's really likely that we don't see Trea Turner until 2017 (maybe a cup of coffee in 2016).
Its always hard to compare guys across the board. Some guys are not viewed as polished at draft time, but still immediately produce. On the flip side, guys that are praised as polished do not always have immediate success. Mike Trout wasn't a cant miss kid and some talked about winters limiting his development a bit, and look what he did right away.
Its also difficult to compare guys to different organizations. The Cardinals never rush anyone, so it's hard to make a comparison to Wong. A guy like Springer(which also goes for a guy like Baez) swings and misses a lot. Springer struck out 300 times in two minor league seasons. Even though he did mash, you're still going to work on his approach because it will become magnified at the big league level(like it still is). A guy like Panik was in an organization winning rings and with a very solid second basemen in Marco Scutaro. The situation at the big league level does effect how quickly you promote guys.
We have been slow to promote guys. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but I think each person needs to be judged differently. I believe you take it slow at the lower levels, when guys are adjusting to pro ball and still growing physically and mentally. You dont want to rush them and risk damaging their confidence if they struggle. If you have success at the higher levels, you can't start to be more aggressive IMO. But, even that doesn't apply to everyone. Some guys can handle the struggle and learn from it. Some crawl into a hole and can't get out. It's a prospect to prospect basis. It was a system wide philosophy in the past, because we sucked. We hit it big with some rare talent and while the urge was there to rush it, there was a bigger picture at play.
The team isn't in the same situation now that it was even two or three years ago. Im not saying that because we area contender now, you rush prospects, but if you have in house solutions to holes, you definitely want to fill it there first, if possible.
Which brings us to Trea's case. This isn't a raw high schooler that struggled his first few years in the minor leagues. An Ian Desmond comparson was made, but it's really not a good one. Desmond flashed some speed but was a mediocre offensive player his first four years. Some power came in year 4 and 5, and he put it all together in year 6. Turner is not on the path, at all.
Turner came from college, where he hit over .300(with an obp .100 points higher) each season, even as a true freshmen. His first taste of pro ball, he hits over .300(with an obp over .400) in 69 games. Those 69 games are not insiginificant over other guys mentioned previously like Bryant, Rendon, or Ackley. 69 games is over 1/2 the minor league season. He then followed that up by hitting .400 on the taxi squad in the Arizona Fall League. 9 games is a small sample size, but 10 runs, 7 steals, and 14 hits in 9 games against more experienced prospects is still impressive.
Now we move to 2015. I will admit that there is an assumption on my part here. My assumption is that Turner will continue to do what he's done everywhere, and that is hit and get on base. It's early but he's doing very well in AA ball. You can say it's aggressive to promote him after a year and a half in the minors, but if the kid hits in college, hits A ball, hits in AA ball, hits in the AFL .... What else do you need to see? That's not to say he's going to walk in and hit .300 and lead off for the Nats as a rookie. It's the biggest jump of them all and you never know how players respond. But, what more could he do at the minor league level? Spending a year at AAA is not necessary for most upper echelon prospects. For someone like Mike Taylor, sure. He struggled his first couple years in the minors then blew up last year. He struck out a lot in the process, and should get some more seasoning in the minors to develop his game. But a first round pick that hits at every level? If he's ready, he's ready. You don't need to delay him an extra year just for the sake of being patient.
Another thing on Turner that I like. He hit as a true freshman in college. In his minor league debut, he had some struggles initially but turned it on and had a great half year. He was challenged with a stint in the AFL and did well. This year, I think most expected him to be at A+. I know I did, and I had made plans to go see him at Lake Elsinore for the Pads. But he was challenged with an AA assignment. He was 0-10 with 5 K's in his first three games. Since then, he's 16/40 with 5/7 BB/K ratio. Now that is a small sample size. But, he's made adjustments and rather quickly, when challenged, at different levels. That bodes well for the future IMO. He could go into a funk the rest of the year and make all this talk moot. Like I said, Im going on the assumption he has another very good season at AA. If Turner does that, I would think he gets a pretty big boost in his hype and rankings. Being a true SS with standout speed and the ability to hit and get on base ... Thats top 25 prospect material, maybe higher.
I can't say how the Nationals are going to handle it, because I have no idea. Im just giving my opinion. I think as long as he continues to play well, he goes to Harrisburg, with a chance at a promortion to AAA before the end of the year. And then he heads to the AFL to get some more experience. We have a hole at shortstop next year and we shouldn't slow play kids to the bigs that have shown they deserve a shot. With a good year at AA with the success before that, I do think Trea deserves a shot. I understand the point of delaying him a few weeks for his service time, but he should get every chance to be the 2016 shortstop if he has a good year this year.
In a perfect world, Difo continues to progress and hes ready in 2017. Two rookies up the middle would be tough with the expectations of the team. Break in Turner in 2016, and Difo the next year.
