Top prospect lists for 2015 season

[BrandonK]

Without looking I'd guess...

1. Little Gio
2. Turner
3. Lopez
4. Robles
5. Fedde
6-10. The rest

The list is there. Wondering if there's any more to it

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Please do not reprint the whole BA article.  We don't want to get into copyright issues if it behind a paywall.  The list itself is

1. Giolito
2. Turner
3. Robles
4. Fedde
5. Lopez
6. Difo
7. Cole
8. Stevenson
9. Voth
10. Franco

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/top-10-prospects-index/

Ok to quote small portions of it, but keep it to a few sentences.

[imref]

is Jake Johanson a bust? 

[comish4lif]

is Jake Johanson a bust? 

In 2015 he was a 24yo at Hi-A Potomac, and put up a 5.44 ERA after putting up a 5.19 ERA in Hagerstown the year before (while repeating the level). So, yeah, there's a second rounder out of college (JUCO?) that didn't pan out.

[RD]

He went to Dallas Baptist. It's a D1 school.

You could call him a bust, based on where he was drafted, definitely.

But, I dont think he's someone you give up on either. His raw stuff is great. He can hit 100 and has a filthy slider. He developed late and was drsfted solely on his stuff. The Nats thought they could iron out some delivery problems and improve his control as a result. It really hasn't worked. But, he's still only 24 and has great stuff. He's the kind of guy who really could take off if things start to click. I'm not holding my breath, but I wouldn't cut bait just yet either.

[Mr Clean]

He went to Dallas Baptist. It's a D1 school.

You could call him a bust, based on where he was drafted, definitely.

But, I dont think he's someone you give up on either. His raw stuff is great. He can hit 100 and has a filthy slider. He developed late and was drsfted solely on his stuff. The Nats thought they could iron out some delivery problems and improve his control as a result. It really hasn't worked. But, he's still only 24 and has great stuff. He's the kind of guy who really could take off if things start to click. I'm not holding my breath, but I wouldn't cut bait just yet either.

]
They made him a reliever this year.

[houston-nat]

The new guy over at FanGraphs, Dan Farnsworth, is causing a stir with his controversial prospect rankings. He has a pretty different POV on it - especially that he values upside less highly relative to likely results, and is more skeptical about "gamble" players making it. The Braves Top Prospects list went up today and the comment section is a hilarious swarm of angry Braves fans who are super offended.

[Natsinpwc]

The new guy over at FanGraphs, Dan Farnsworth, is causing a stir with his controversial prospect rankings. He has a pretty different POV on it - especially that he values upside less highly relative to likely results, and is more skeptical about "gamble" players making it. The Braves Top Prospects list went up today and the comment section is a hilarious swarm of angry Braves fans who are super offended.

The Braves: losers off the field and on the field.

[NJ Ave]

The new guy over at FanGraphs, Dan Farnsworth, is causing a stir with his controversial prospect rankings. He has a pretty different POV on it - especially that he values upside less highly relative to likely results, and is more skeptical about "gamble" players making it. The Braves Top Prospects list went up today and the comment section is a hilarious swarm of angry Braves fans who are super offended.

I understand the outrage, to be honest. I loved Kiley McDaniel's work on Fangraphs, and was more than a little concerned that they were replacing him, essentially, with a community blog contributor who had done some swing breakdown pieces.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-announcement-regarding-our-prospect-coverage/

I have no idea if they just couldn't get a "real" prospect guy or it wasn't in their budget, or what.

I mean, ostensibly they understood that they were hiring a nobody who had few ties to people in the industry, and thus was going to be unable to gauge his own interpretations against those of other professionals and ask hard questions like "am I really so sure of myself that I should rank a guy the Braves got for a couple mid-30s salary dumps above a guy everyone else thinks is a top-25 SP prospect?"

In any case, I guess if Fangraphs wanted to move in a more "clickbait" direction, then mission accomplished because people are certainly discussing the list. But no one should be looking for "rogue" prospect analysis. Prospects are like stocks - I'm less interested in finding a guy who thinks a penny stock is TEH BEST STOCK EVERRRR than in knowing whether 8 of 10 analysts think a company has a solid foundation and is a good long-term stock to buy.

Maybe he'll be right about individual players turning out better, who knows? But the majority of "top prospects" don't turn out anyways so who really cares who's "right" or "wrong" about a prospect 5 years ago? It's more valuable to be able to get the market consensus of how prospects are being valued at a given point in time. And rogue analysis is worthless for that.

If not a single team in baseball would choose your #2 Braves prospect over your #3 Braves prospect, if given the option of either in a trade when both players are SP, that's a worthless list.

[NJ Ave]

Let me add that it might be interesting or valuable to know a prospect writer's personal opinions, to the extent of "I wouldn't be surprised if Gant ends up more valuable than Newcomb in the end" or something like that. But the basis of the prospect industry is in valuation. That's why you have people creating surplus values for prospects in different buckets (top ten hitters more valuable than top 25, who are more valuable than top 100, etc). It helps make sense of what is a "fair" trade or gives people a good sense of what's a "fair" package for a prospective trade target.

But Farnsworth said Gant is a FV 60. Last year, that would have corresponded to Kiley McDaniel's top 28 prospects in baseball. It's a guy John Sickels rated a C+ and #14 in the Braves system. It's a guy who will likely be nowhere near anyone else's top 100 list. It's a guy who was traded a few months ago as part of a package for Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson.

C+ pitchers above 23 years old are valued at maybe $2 million, while pitchers on the edge of the top 25 are worth 10 times as much. Being off by an order of magnitude is...not helpful.

He also was forced to write a mea culpa because of the comments, had to add back a top 5 Braves prospect that HE FORGOT TO INCLUDE, and most alarmingly RESERVED THE RIGHT TO CHANGE THE GRADES after he compiled all the lists. Your top prospect person cannot have no idea of what a 55 prospect looks like, and instead base his grades on how many prospects he wants in different buckets. Your top prospect person cannot forget a top five system prospect because they're making so few calls to other evaluators that his name never came up. That's ludicrous.

[HalfSmokes]

Is fangraphs actually respected in baseball? It seems like a nice alternative if you don't want to pay for bp. Like espn they have some talented writers, but do baseball insiders actually respect it as a whole?

[BrandonK]

He also was forced to write a mea culpa because of the comments, had to add back a top 5 Braves prospect that HE FORGOT TO INCLUDE, and most alarmingly RESERVED THE RIGHT TO CHANGE THE GRADES after he compiled all the lists. Your top prospect person cannot have no idea of what a 55 prospect looks like, and instead base his grades on how many prospects he wants in different buckets. Your top prospect person cannot forget a top five system prospect because they're making so few calls to other evaluators that his name never came up. That's ludicrous.

Agreed. I'm disappointed, but I do understand this is his first gig and he doesn't have those contacts yet.

Is fangraphs actually respected in baseball? It seems like a nice alternative if you don't want to pay for bp. Like espn they have some talented writers, but do baseball insiders actually respect it as a whole?

Kiley was. I think Dave C. is too.

[NJ Ave]

Is fangraphs actually respected in baseball? It seems like a nice alternative if you don't want to pay for bp. Like espn they have some talented writers, but do baseball insiders actually respect it as a whole?

No idea, the only reason I'm worked up is because I loved Kiley's work there - I thought it was the best in baseball - and it looks like they've just screwed it all up very badly.

I doubt people inside baseball really have time for any of these writers, I think they're all for fans. People inside MLB organizations have their own scouts they're paying for this information. At most, maybe a GM would use industry consensus to confirm/disconfirm their own scouting?

[HalfSmokes]

Judging by the number of bp people poached by front offices, I wouldn't be surprised if people in front offices read their stuff

[houston-nat]

Is fangraphs actually respected in baseball? It seems like a nice alternative if you don't want to pay for bp. Like espn they have some talented writers, but do baseball insiders actually respect it as a whole?

Dave told me privately (when I was interviewing to write for FG) that one reason they have such a hard time hanging on to writers - mostly the ubernerds who write like 2 articles that are full of giant charts and then never appear again - is that MLB teams keep hiring them. Kiley was hired by the Braves, of course, and Dave has a similar network of industry contacts. A couple GMs have appeared at FanGraphs events (I think at least Cherington and Luhnow). And there are a dozen or so MLBers who read the site regularly (Brandon McCarthy comments on articles about himself [EDIT: maybe only one]).

I think Sullivan's series on how to pitch to Mike Trout was pretty influential.

[BrandonK]

Dave told me privately (when I was interviewing to write for FG) that one reason they have such a hard time hanging on to writers - mostly the ubernerds who write like 2 articles that are full of giant charts and then never appear again - is that MLB teams keep hiring them. Kiley was hired by the Braves, of course, and Dave has a similar network of industry contacts. A couple GMs have appeared at FanGraphs events (I think at least Cherington and Luhnow). And there are a dozen or so MLBers who read the site regularly (Brandon McCarthy comments on articles about himself).

I think Sullivan's series on how to pitch to Mike Trout was pretty influential.

Houston, submit some articles and get hired!

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Houston, submit some articles and get hired!

Do you use Well-Beered Englishman on the Community blog or your alias?   I always thought the English used hyphens in last names, not firsts.  Is  Well-Beered kind of like those old poorly- transliterated Chinese names, like Mao Tse-Tung and Chou En-lai?

[houston-nat]

Do you use Well-Beered Englishman on the Community blog or your alias?   I always thought the English used hyphens in last names, not firsts.  Is  Well-Beered kind of like those old poorly- transliterated Chinese names, like Mao Tse-Tung and Chou En-lai?

Actually when I wrote a piece for Hardball Times, they synced my real-name account and my alias account so now those old Community posts appear using my real name...

[Lintyfresh85]

Judging by the number of bp people poached by front offices, I wouldn't be surprised if people in front offices read their stuff

When I was writing my blog, I had people from inside Nationals Park checking it every day and I was barely drawing 100 people a day. I'm sure every front office has workers who check all the baseball info, daily.

[NJ Ave]

When I was writing my blog, I had people from inside Nationals Park checking it every day and I was barely drawing 100 people a day. I'm sure every front office has workers who check all the baseball info, daily.

Except for the Phillies. The Phillies firewall rejected access to any site with the word "baseball" in it.

[BrandonK]

OT, but the Dodgers system is too good... That's what money will do! http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/los-angeles-dodgers-top-10-prospects/

[Natsinpwc]

OT, but the Dodgers system is too good... That's what money will do! http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/los-angeles-dodgers-top-10-prospects/

and yet they can't win a playoff series.

The article says the good farm system is not due to the money.

[BrandonK]

and yet they can't win a playoff series.

The article says the good farm system is not due to the money.

Being able to eat that money on Olivera netted them Perzara + the other ML help. They signed Urias internationally. Not signing Funkhouser this draft was a major blunder, but they've been able to throw money at int'l prospects, which in turn, gives them more chances in the lottery. I don't think they're the smartest moves, but it's envious to see.

[Natsinpwc]

Being able to eat that money on Olivera netted them Perzara + the other ML help. They signed Urias internationally. Not signing Funkhouser this draft was a major blunder, but they've been able to throw money at int'l prospects, which in turn, gives them more chances in the lottery. I don't think they're the smartest moves, but it's envious to see.

I'm more envious of the Giants and Royals.  They have won and seem in shape to be competitive for a while.  And the Cards also.

[BrandonK]

I'm more envious of the Giants and Royals.  They have won and seem in shape to be competitive for a while.  And the Cards also.

Royals built through years of crap -- it took them long enough to actually produce, but they have. We'll see what they do two years at the bottom of the draft...

Giants thrive on role players, and it keeps working for them. Gotta respect that.