Author Topic: Top prospect lists for 2015 season  (Read 12389 times)

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Offline blue911

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Re: Top prospect lists for 2015 season
« Reply #50: January 15, 2015, 07:26:19 PM »
I like Law, but he's simplistic at times, maybe lazy? He talks about Drew Ward as if he's a non-prospect, which he's obviously not. And in my opinion he does this because it's easier than casting a bigger net like Kiley and making all the calls you need to make to have an opinion on more than ten guys per system.

That's fair. I like BP because I can search on Drew Ward and get a dozen or so write ups on him. BA has lost too much talent and their on-line site is terrible. I read Sickels and Mayo but I'm not sold on either.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Top prospect lists for 2015 season
« Reply #51: January 15, 2015, 10:00:21 PM »
Love the FG write-up.

Offline zimm_da_kid

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Re: Top prospect lists for 2015 season
« Reply #52: January 17, 2015, 02:07:16 PM »
from yesterday's fangraph chat
Quote


Comment From Alex
12:23
 Have you heard of any hidden gems in the 2014 international amateur signings?


12:24
Kiley McDaniel: I think the names teams have been excited about in instructs were the big names from 2014, but a number of lower bonus 2012 and 2013 guys have been popping up on lists. Victor Robles with WSH was a recent one.


Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Top prospect lists for 2015 season
« Reply #54: January 28, 2015, 10:04:56 PM »
Lower on Lopez than others and higher on Cole, but I guess there's divided opinion on Lopez and Sickels says Cole suffers from "prospect fatigue" like Odorizzi had.

Offline blue911

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Re: Top prospect lists for 2015 season
« Reply #55: January 29, 2015, 11:06:40 AM »
Keith Law puts 6 Nationals prospects in his top 100. Giolito,Ross,Taylor,Cole,Turner & Lopez.

Online NJ Ave

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Re: Top prospect lists for 2015 season
« Reply #56: January 29, 2015, 11:46:56 AM »
Keith Law puts 6 Nationals prospects in his top 100. Giolito,Ross,Taylor,Cole,Turner & Lopez.

He also said that Ross, Cole and Lopez (each of whom also has issues) have ceilings of #2/3 starters while Giolito's (no surprise) is that of a clear ace.  :az:

Offline PC

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Re: Top prospect lists for 2015 season
« Reply #57: January 29, 2015, 02:27:06 PM »
Keith Law puts 6 Nationals prospects in his top 100. Giolito,Ross,Taylor,Cole,Turner & Lopez.

8   Lucas Giolito, RHP

AGE: 20DOB: 7/14/94B/T: R/RHT: 6-6WT: 255
W-L: 10-2ERA: 2.20IP: 98SO: 110BB: 28

One year after his return from Tommy John surgery, Giolito was on the mound at the Futures Game in Minneapolis, giving up a homer on a hanging curveball but otherwise looking outstanding for someone only about 23 months off the operation. His 2014 season was remarkable on its own, but even more so given the context of his injury and missed time, and when you consider that he hasn't even been allowed to use his two-seam fastball and is still developing his changeup, you can see why there seems to be no limit on how good he can ultimately be.

Giolito looks the part of a future ace, a 6-foot-6, 255-pound workhorse who'll sit 94-96 mph and can go get 98, getting good leverage from his height and working on sitting in the lower third of the zone with the pitch. He gets great angle and depth on the plus curveball, 79-83 and unhittable unless he hangs it (which he did in the Futures Game). His changeup is in the low 80s and he's continuing to throw it more, all but shelving his curveball in his last few starts of 2014 because he wanted to develop the change. When he reaches Double-A, he'll be able to restore his two-seamer and become a true four-pitch guy. Giolito looks like a 220-inning, sub-3 ERA guy in the making, and he should be ready to see the majors at some point in late 2016, which gives the Nationals a lot to consider when looking at the impending free agents in their currently loaded big-league rotation.

63   Joe Ross, RHP

AGE: 21DOB: 5/21/93B/T: R/RHT: 6-4WT: 205
W-L: 10-6ERA: 3.92IP: 121.2SO: 106BB: 29

Ross, the younger brother of Padres pitcher Tyson, had a mediocre 2013 season after missing much of 2012 with a sore shoulder, as neither his stuff nor command was consistent and his performance was disappointing. Last year he moved up to a tougher environment for pitchers, and everything ticked up, resulting in a late-season promotion to Double-A and his inclusion in the big, three-team trade that sent Wil Myers to San Diego. Ross will hit 97 mph but is most comfortable at 92-94 with good two-seam tailing life, the latter the result of a slightly lower arm slot the Padres hoped would take some pressure off his shoulder as well. He always has had excellent feel for a changeup, but the lower slot also gave him more tilt on his slider, an above-average to plus pitch, whereas he'd previously been caught between a slider and a curve.

Hitters find Ross' stuff hard to square up, and he's a slight ground ball pitcher. He's a good athlete and competitor who throws strikes, although his control is still ahead of his command. I thought he had a chance to be a No. 2 starter before his shoulder barked, and there's probably less of a chance now that he evolves into a 200-inning starter, but he could be a very effective No. 3 who throws 180 or so innings in peak years.

71   Michael Taylor, CF

AGE: 23DOB: 3/26/91B/T: R/RHT: 6-3WT: 210
AVG: .304OBP: .390OPS: .915HR: 23SB: 37

To their credit, the Nationals never lost faith in Taylor, not when he couldn't crack a .320 OBP until he was 22, not when he had to repeat high-A that year and still punched out 131 times. The former high school shortstop took to center field pretty quickly, but it took him a few years to fill out and grow into some power, with the help of a lot of work from the Nats' player development staff. Taylor's posture at the plate is better now, and he's better able to power through the baseball with significant torque from quick hip rotation. He hit 24 homers in 127 games across three levels last year, and he still could add some strength to his frame, although that might cost him some of his plus speed.

He has made a lot of progress at the plate, but it's all come fairly slowly, and given his contact issues and how quickly he gets the bat through the zone, I wouldn't be surprised if he took a year or two of major league at-bats to start posting adequate OBPs. He's a 70 defender in center and can impact the game with power and speed, with a chance to be a grade-60 regular in the majors once he gets 1,000 at-bats or so under his belt.

75   Reynaldo Lopez, RHP

AGE: 21DOB: 1/4/94B/T: R/RHT: 6-0WT: 185
W-L: 7-3ERA: 1.08IP: 83.1SO: 70BB: 26

Lopez was throwing just 87-90 mph when he first signed for a pittance as an 18-year-old amateur in 2012, but his velocity picked up rapidly once the Nationals got a hold of him, to the point where they had to shut him down for nearly all of 2013 to keep him healthy. He stayed on the mound for all of 2014, and his talent exploded: He'd reach 100 mph in many starts, wouldn't throw a pitch under 94 and would show a 60 or 70 grade curveball as long as he could stay at the top of his release point. Lopez had been a more lateral front-side guy, but the Nats raised his front side when he was with Auburn this summer so he could get on top of that breaking ball and generate more plane on the fastball, producing more ground balls and more consistent strikes as well. He gets good action on his nascent changeup but lacks feel for the pitch because he has barely used it.

After he returned to Hagerstown from Auburn in late July, he allowed one run in 39 innings, on a solo homer, punching out 34 guys against 23 total baserunners, with that homer being the only extra-base hit he surrendered. His ceiling is second only to Lucas Giolito among Nationals' starter prospects, and the main hurdle for him to get there is to build up the stamina to be a 30-start guy.

88   Trea Turner, SS

AGE: 21DOB: 6/30/93B/T: L/RHT: 6-1WT: 175
AVG: .323OBP: .406OPS: .854HR: 5SB: 23

Turner is technically still a Padre, because MLB is operating under a Dark Ages rule that prohibits teams from trading drafted players for a full year after they sign their first pro contracts, a rule that conflicts with the way a "player to be named" can be traded up to six months after the deal is completed. So now Turner gets to spend spring training and the first two months or so of 2015 playing for an organization that no longer has any stake in his future, and that's both wrong and dangerous. Turner himself is in an awful spot, because he's a good prospect who needs work in specific areas to become an above-average regular at shortstop.

He's a plus runner with the speed to stay at short but needs help on footwork to be able to make plays that require him to move well out of position and to be able to throw accurately from any spot. He has the bat speed to catch up to a good fastball but wraps his bat behind his head and can be a tick late getting the bat head into the zone. He could end up an average or slightly better defensive shortstop who hits .280-.300 with 40 steals a year, as long as he gets into an organization that is fully invested in his development.

98   A.J. Cole, RHP

AGE: 23DOB: 1/5/92B/T: R/RHT: 6-5WT: 200
W-L: 13-3ERA: 3.16IP: 134SO: 111BB: 32

Is there a worse place to be as a prospect than to be a starting pitcher at the top of Washington's farm system? All Tanner Roark did last year was post a 2.85 ERA in 198 2/3 innings, and he's expected to be out of the Nats' rotation. Cole could probably be someone's fifth starter now, certainly by midyear, but at the moment he's as blocked as any pitching prospect in baseball. Cole's results haven't quite matched his stuff -- the whole is less than the sum of the parts -- but both his slider and changeup have come a long way in the past 18 months, to the point where he looks like a true four-pitch pitcher who has the control to be at least a fourth starter. He works at 93-97 but still doesn't locate it that well within the zone; he could get all the way up to a No. 2 starter if he improves his fastball command and pitches more aggressively. He has also found a consistent arm slot that works for both his curveball, his main out pitch in high school, and his slider, which helps keep hitters from identifying pitches too easily.

Another half-season or so in Triple-A would probably help him, as he'll face a lot of hitters who have major league experience and will force him to work on his weaknesses. Once he gives up a little less hard contact, he'll be ready for someone to call him up, even if it takes a trade for that to happen.


Offline PC

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Re: Top prospect lists for 2015 season
« Reply #58: January 29, 2015, 02:34:14 PM »
FYI, Giolito is Law's #1 pitcher.

Offline Clever

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Re: Top prospect lists for 2015 season
« Reply #59: January 29, 2015, 07:09:44 PM »
Thanks for the hookup from the inside, PC.  8)

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Top prospect lists for 2015 season
« Reply #60: January 30, 2015, 08:15:39 AM »
Keith Law puts 6 Nationals prospects in his top 100. Giolito,Ross,Taylor,Cole,Turner & Lopez.
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/1/10/7523759/washington-nationals-top-20-prospects-for-2015
Looks like Law and Sickels agree on Lopez not being quite as high as others earlier, and Law is one with "prospect fatigue" on Cole. 

Offline blue911

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Re: Top prospect lists for 2015 season
« Reply #61: January 30, 2015, 08:28:28 AM »
Looks like Law and Sickels agree on Lopez not being quite as high as others earlier, and Law is one with "prospect fatigue" on Cole.

Ryan Sullivan had Keith Law on his Podcast last night. He thinks Cole would benefit from more time in AAA.



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Offline imref

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Re: Top prospect lists for 2015 season
« Reply #62: January 30, 2015, 08:57:55 AM »
Law ranks our farm system as #9 overall:

Quote
9. Washington Nationals

The Nats' system got a big boost last year, when they kept their first-round draft pick and landed a good college arm, Erick Fedde, who fell because he had blown out his elbow. Then they added two top-100 prospects in exchange for Steven Souza this offseason. They're also so set at the major league level that they haven't had to deal much from their minor league affiliates; just two of their top 10 from last year, Souza and Nate Karns, are no longer with the Nats, and both are now property of Tampa Bay, through separate deals.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Top prospect lists for 2015 season
« Reply #63: January 30, 2015, 01:04:53 PM »
Interesting that minor league ball is the only one still high on Cole. Really think we'll know in ST if he's good or if there is something wrong with him (I'm guessing Tommy John)

Offline Mattionals

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Re: Top prospect lists for 2015 season
« Reply #64: January 30, 2015, 01:41:36 PM »
Interesting that minor league ball is the only one still high on Cole. Really think we'll know in ST if he's good or if there is something wrong with him (I'm guessing Tommy John)

Guy is also still young at 23 so one more year at AAA isn't a bad thing.  I wouldn't be surprised if he is called up for a spot start here or there this year.

Offline PC

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Re: Top prospect lists for 2015 season
« Reply #65: January 30, 2015, 02:51:00 PM »
Washington Nationals: Top 10 prospects
January, 30, 2015
By Keith Law | ESPN Insider

Organization Ranking: 9

I've ranked every farm system, as well as the top 100 MLB prospects for 2015. Below, I've ranked at least the top Nats 10 prospects, plus an overview of the system and any other names of note beyond the top 10. I also discuss any prospects who might help the big league club in 2015, one or two prospects whose stock has taken a big hit in the past year, and a sleeper prospect who I think can jump into the main top-100 list for 2016.

Top 10 prospects

1. Lucas Giolito, RHP
2. Joe Ross, RHP
3. Michael Taylor, CF
4. Reynaldo Lopez, RHP
5. Trea Turner, SS
6. A.J. Cole, RHP
7. Wilmer Difo, 2B
8. Pedro Severino, C
9. Erick Fedde, RHP
10. Jakson Reetz, C

Overview

This is the strongest the Nationals' system has been in some time, at least since Bryce Harper graduated from their list, thanks to some opportunistic drafting, a very productive pipeline from Latin America and the trade of Steven Souza that netted the Nats two of their top prospects. They might not need a starter any time soon, but seven potential major league starters are on their way, including the five listed above, sinkerballer Austin Voth (11) and Canadian Nick Pivetta (12), who can reach 96 mph but needs more consistency with both the breaking ball and the change. Cole might end up in the bullpen out of need, although Jefry Rodriguez (13) is probably their best relief prospect. A converted shortstop who can hit 98 with a power curveball, Rodriguez suffered a hairline fracture in his non-throwing wrist and only threw 33 innings last year.

2015 impact

(Checks Nationals depth chart.)

(Double-checks depth chart.)

Moving along rapidly...

The fallen

Brian Goodwin has All-Star tools, yet he has struggled for two years to put everything together and perform at a level that would point toward a future as an everyday player. He's even stopped stealing bases, and what once looked like a potential power/speed centerfielder is now maybe an up-and-down outfielder.

Sleeper

Last year's sleeper, Severino, probably is still the best choice here (or possibly Difo, who was old for the Sally League last year but has a lot of above-average to plus tools. Severino is a wizard behind the plate, a plus framer with good blocking skills and a 70 or 80 arm who's growing into his body. He started to show some progress at the plate in the second half (.301/.376/.466) last summer. Down the road a bit further, remember the name Victor Robles, the Nats' star prospect from their Dominican Summer League team last year; he's a center fielder who has 6s and 7s all over his scouting report, with a plus arm, above-average to plus run, excellent bat speed, and the kind of fast-twitch body scouts love to see.

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/post/_/id/3268/

Offline PC

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Re: Top prospect lists for 2015 season
« Reply #66: February 20, 2015, 12:32:10 AM »
Baseball America Top 100 Prospects:

Nationals:

Joe Ross - #97
AJ Cole - #92
Erick Fedde - #91
Trea Turner #66
Reynaldo Lopez - #50
Michael Taylor - #33
Lucas Giolito - #7

Seven is tied for the most on the list with the Red Sox and Mets.

Offline KnorrForYourMoney

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Re: Top prospect lists for 2015 season
« Reply #67: February 21, 2015, 11:25:33 AM »
There's great pitching in the system, but I can't say I'm very confident in the hitters if Taylor is the highest-ranked guy.

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: Top prospect lists for 2015 season
« Reply #68: February 21, 2015, 12:01:25 PM »
with the way people were talking about turner after the trade, I thought he'd be higher

Offline houston-nat

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Re: Top prospect lists for 2015 season
« Reply #69: February 21, 2015, 01:14:15 PM »
with the way people were talking about turner after the trade, I thought he'd be higher
I know Kiley McDaniel said he'd be bumping Turner's grades up fast if he hits well to start the year. Scouts are still concerned about the draft year he had in college, but that seems to be mechanical troubles that he has since fixed...

Offline imref

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Re: Top prospect lists for 2015 season
« Reply #70: April 16, 2015, 05:47:58 PM »
NatsArmsRace with updated rankings for both the organization and individual prospects:  http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=10324

Offline natasaurus

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Re: Top prospect lists for 2015 season
« Reply #71: June 10, 2015, 03:16:43 PM »
Jakson Reetz is now the #10 catching prospect according to MLB.com after graduations.

Offline BrandonK

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Re: Top prospect lists for 2015 season
« Reply #72: June 10, 2015, 10:10:11 PM »
Think any of the guys drafted would even fit in that top ten?

Offline zimm_da_kid

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Re: Top prospect lists for 2015 season
« Reply #73: June 10, 2015, 10:51:29 PM »
I'd put it as so

1.  Giolito
2.  Turner
3.  Lopez
4.  Fedde
5.  Difo
6.  Cole
7.  Reetz
8.  Stevenson
9.  Voth
10.  Pivetta

Offline BrandonK

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Re: Top prospect lists for 2015 season
« Reply #74: June 10, 2015, 11:00:15 PM »
I'd put it as so

1.  Giolito
2.  Turner
3.  Lopez
4.  Fedde
5.  Difo
6.  Cole
7.  Reetz
8.  Stevenson
9.  Voth
10.  Pivetta

Ross? Ward?