Author Topic: Top prospect lists for 2015 season  (Read 12420 times)

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Offline houston-nat

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Re: Top prospect lists for 2015 season
« Reply #25: December 23, 2014, 01:31:49 PM »
are we writing Johanson off as bullpen fodder?
Some people think he can be a closer, but that's the best case scenario for him. I think his high heat has a good chance as a power threat in the 8th/9th.



Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Top prospect lists for 2015 season
« Reply #28: January 08, 2015, 09:21:11 AM »
thanks
and thanks for picking up this list.  So, 1 elite guy - Giolito, 2 near elite - Taylor and Lopez, then a slew of guys who could be mid rotation starters and MLB regular position players with occasional all star appearances.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Top prospect lists for 2015 season
« Reply #29: January 08, 2015, 09:30:39 AM »
and thanks for picking up this list.  So, 1 elite guy - Giolito, 2 near elite - Taylor and Lopez, then a slew of guys who could be mid rotation starters and MLB regular position players with occasional all star appearances.
we are all set for the future.
I like that they listed where the player was most likely to start 2015--author's speculation of course but looking forward to seeing a number of these guys at Potomac in the summer.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Top prospect lists for 2015 season
« Reply #30: January 08, 2015, 09:43:51 AM »
He practically drools over the Giolito / Lopez 1-2 combo at the start of the year in Potomac.  Cole / Hill / Rivero also looks pretty nice and deep at AAA.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Top prospect lists for 2015 season
« Reply #31: January 08, 2015, 09:49:33 AM »
He practically drools over the Giolito / Lopez 1-2 combo at the start of the year in Potomac.  Cole / Hill / Rivero also looks pretty nice and deep at AAA.

to be fair, he seems very generous in his four start rankings http://www.sbnation.com/users/Nick%20Melotte/blog every team seems to have a bunch - he doesn't like the marlins, but he gives every other team in the division 8 or 9 four star or better prospects- that seems inflated

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Top prospect lists for 2015 season
« Reply #32: January 08, 2015, 10:09:49 AM »
What is this baloney? Is Sickels no longer doing all these himself for his Minor League Ball brand?

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Top prospect lists for 2015 season
« Reply #33: January 08, 2015, 10:19:47 AM »
I mean, what is this? 20 guys in the organization who are 50 projections (average major league regulars) or above? 20 guys who can be 2+ WAR players?

Give me a friggin' break. I don't think a system in the minors is that deep. I don't like prospect lists that give 95%, absolute ceiling projections, like Drew Ward making a couple all-star games.

Offline blue911

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Re: Top prospect lists for 2015 season
« Reply #34: January 08, 2015, 10:25:42 AM »
I wonder if he was brought on when Sickels suffered his concussion last year.

Offline natasaurus

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Re: Top prospect lists for 2015 season
« Reply #35: January 08, 2015, 11:22:34 AM »
What is this baloney? Is Sickels no longer doing all these himself for his Minor League Ball brand?

Melotte is making his own top 20 lists, but Sickels is still doing his. It takes him longer between teams because he writes up 20 players, but the Nats are next up on his agenda, so we can expect Sickels' top 20 within the next week or so.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Top prospect lists for 2015 season
« Reply #36: January 08, 2015, 12:29:52 PM »
Not impressed by Melotte. I would think the very limited subset of baseball fans that actually read prospect lists would be more interested in fair and even evaluations of prospects than what Melotte is offering, which seems overly positive and also grades guys at least a half grade above, on average. When Kiley McDaniel breaks out his Fangraphs prospects list (and I think Kiley is generally the most imformative and comprehensive out there right now) it will be obvious that a lot of these 50 and 55s are likely 40s and 45s. Tony Renda is not a 50 as his most likely outcome.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Top prospect lists for 2015 season
« Reply #37: January 08, 2015, 12:33:11 PM »
Not to rain on the parade, since I also think we have a pretty impressive system considering the strength of our major league roster (usually teams seem to sacrifice the former to get this level of strength in the latter). But it's not helpful to think of Austin Voth as a likely mid-rotation starter.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Top prospect lists for 2015 season
« Reply #38: January 15, 2015, 10:19:16 AM »
Fangraphs is up. I love Kiley McDaniel. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-the-prospects-washington-nationals/

I also hate how everyone talks about how "lucky" we were to pick first for Strasburg and Harper. We generally draft well. From those drafts, would we have been significantly worse off with Machado, Sale, Harvey or Yelich instead of Harper, or similarly, some other guys instead of Strasburg?

We drafted high, and it's nice those guys have panned out. They're not the reason we're successful. We didn't luck into Mickey Mantle and Bob Gibson, at least not yet. Happy to be wrong if they both turn into top 10 players this season.

Offline whytev

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Re: Top prospect lists for 2015 season
« Reply #39: January 15, 2015, 12:10:18 PM »
Fangraphs is up. I love Kiley McDaniel. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-the-prospects-washington-nationals/

I also hate how everyone talks about how "lucky" we were to pick first for Strasburg and Harper. We generally draft well. From those drafts, would we have been significantly worse off with Machado, Sale, Harvey or Yelich instead of Harper, or similarly, some other guys instead of Strasburg?

We drafted high, and it's nice those guys have panned out. They're not the reason we're successful. We didn't luck into Mickey Mantle and Bob Gibson, at least not yet. Happy to be wrong if they both turn into top 10 players this season.

Wasn't Ackley the number 2 pick after Strasburg? That wouldn't be the worst.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Top prospect lists for 2015 season
« Reply #40: January 15, 2015, 12:50:55 PM »
Fangraphs is up. I love Kiley McDaniel. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-the-prospects-washington-nationals/

Of note, he project Turner as late 2017 for MLB.

Giolito 2016 (late), Lopez late 2017, and Fedde for 2018

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Top prospect lists for 2015 season
« Reply #41: January 15, 2015, 01:31:50 PM »
Wasn't Ackley the number 2 pick after Strasburg? That wouldn't be the worst.

Yeah, I mean you're always lucky when guys pan out, but if our team had Treinen in the starting rotation and Souza in the OF because Strasburg and Harper had accidentally driven a car off a cliff, we'd still be favorites in the NL East.

Too many people write this "lucky" nonsense as if those two guys determine our success.

Offline whytev

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Re: Top prospect lists for 2015 season
« Reply #42: January 15, 2015, 01:37:19 PM »
Yeah, I mean you're always lucky when guys pan out, but if our team had Treinen in the starting rotation and Souza in the OF because Strasburg and Harper had accidentally driven a car off a cliff, we'd still be favorites in the NL East.

Too many people write this "lucky" nonsense as if those two guys determine our success.

Considering that they were both hugely uneven last year...

Offline houston-nat

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Re: Top prospect lists for 2015 season
« Reply #43: January 15, 2015, 03:53:23 PM »
Fangraphs is up. I love Kiley McDaniel. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-the-prospects-washington-nationals/

I also hate how everyone talks about how "lucky" we were to pick first for Strasburg and Harper. We generally draft well. From those drafts, would we have been significantly worse off with Machado, Sale, Harvey or Yelich instead of Harper, or similarly, some other guys instead of Strasburg?

We drafted high, and it's nice those guys have panned out. They're not the reason we're successful. We didn't luck into Mickey Mantle and Bob Gibson, at least not yet. Happy to be wrong if they both turn into top 10 players this season.

This list was so thorough, informative, and behind-the-scenes-y, it's bonkers. I love it.

Offline Clever

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Re: Top prospect lists for 2015 season
« Reply #44: January 15, 2015, 04:49:47 PM »
This list was so thorough, informative, and behind-the-scenes-y, it's bonkers. I love it.

It's so hard to find a good Drew Vettleson profile these days.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Top prospect lists for 2015 season
« Reply #45: January 15, 2015, 06:50:00 PM »
This list was so thorough, informative, and behind-the-scenes-y, it's bonkers. I love it.

He's the best. I've read most of the others, even franchises I could not give less of a crap about. It may be quantity over quality, but it's fairly high quality as well. He writes more on a system than Keith Law writes in his whole top 100.

Offline blue911

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Re: Top prospect lists for 2015 season
« Reply #46: January 15, 2015, 06:59:06 PM »
Where did he come from? He's much better than any they've had before.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Top prospect lists for 2015 season
« Reply #47: January 15, 2015, 07:03:08 PM »
Came from ESPN as the second guy to Keith Law. I like him better.

Offline blue911

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Re: Top prospect lists for 2015 season
« Reply #48: January 15, 2015, 07:05:58 PM »
Came from ESPN as the second guy to Keith Law. I like him better.

When Law isn't trying to be a dickhead, he's pretty good. But he has a smartest man in the room complex which I find insufferable.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Top prospect lists for 2015 season
« Reply #49: January 15, 2015, 07:17:47 PM »
When Law isn't trying to be a dickhead, he's pretty good. But he has a smartest man in the room complex which I find insufferable.

I like Law, but he's simplistic at times, maybe lazy? He talks about Drew Ward as if he's a non-prospect, which he's obviously not. And in my opinion he does this because it's easier than casting a bigger net like Kiley and making all the calls you need to make to have an opinion on more than ten guys per system.