Author Topic: Braves trade Heyward to Cardinals  (Read 4722 times)

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Offline GburgNatsFan

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Re: Braves trade Heyward to Cardinals
« Reply #25: November 17, 2014, 01:43:23 PM »
Are they busting it up?
It boggles my mind.   Braves have two malcontent, useless outfielders and one good one. So they unload the good one.

Online DPMOmaha

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Re: Braves trade Heyward to Cardinals
« Reply #26: November 17, 2014, 01:49:33 PM »
It boggles my mind.   Braves have two malcontent, useless outfielders and one good one. So they unload the good one.
I think the Braves are going to have a very busy offseason.

Offline Ray D

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Re: Braves trade Heyward to Cardinals
« Reply #27: November 17, 2014, 02:09:54 PM »
Are they busting it up?

If so, they need to unload both Uptons.

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: Braves trade Heyward to Cardinals
« Reply #28: November 17, 2014, 02:10:18 PM »
If so, they need to unload both Uptons.

Don't see how they will get anyone to take BJ

Offline GburgNatsFan

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Re: Braves trade Heyward to Cardinals
« Reply #29: November 17, 2014, 02:13:51 PM »
Don't see how they will get anyone to take BJ

Who wouldn't take BJ?  :rimshot:

Offline Squab

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Re: Braves trade Heyward to Cardinals
« Reply #30: November 17, 2014, 02:36:55 PM »
As a Nationals fan, I love this trade for the Braves.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Braves trade Heyward to Cardinals
« Reply #31: November 17, 2014, 02:39:50 PM »
You can justify this any number of ways. It's still a rationalization. You don't trade away 25-year old 5-win position players. If you have to overpay them, you overpay them. They're paying BJ Upton, Chris Johnson, and Craig Kimbrel $72 million in 2015/16.

You start with the cornerstones (even if you have to overpay them) and then fit the rest of the team around your budget, not vice versa.

If you project Heyward to by a 4.5 win player through age 28 and then have a normal aging curve (losing .5 wins a year), and you project free agency values to be $6 million this year and to increase by 5% a year (conservative for recent years), then I get Heyward's extension value, including the $9 million he's making this year, to be 9 years/$217 million.

I don't think he was asking for anything close to that. If they could have gotten him for 9/$150 million or whatever, there's just not a lot of risk there. Certainly no more than spending the equivalent amount of money every year on Chris Johnsons, Ervin Santanas, BJ Uptons, etc.

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: Braves trade Heyward to Cardinals
« Reply #32: November 17, 2014, 02:43:02 PM »
do we even know that he was willing to sign an extension at all? Some guys just want to be free agents

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Braves trade Heyward to Cardinals
« Reply #33: November 17, 2014, 02:49:56 PM »
do we even know that he was willing to sign an extension at all? Some guys just want to be free agents

You're right of course. In that case I'd obviously rather keep the better player and try to sign them again in free agency, and take the draft pick if you can't. Unless you're blown away by the value you're getting in return (and maybe the Braves believe Shelby Miller is more than the next Homer Bailey) I'd rather take the value NOW if I'm in contention.

Offline Ray D

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Re: Braves trade Heyward to Cardinals
« Reply #34: November 17, 2014, 02:52:58 PM »
do we even know that he was willing to sign an extension at all? Some guys just want to be free agents

Well I think I recall a recent interview where he said he wanted to be a Brave his whole careeer, or something like that.  (Of course, they all say that. Even Harper and Strasburg.)

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: Braves trade Heyward to Cardinals
« Reply #35: November 17, 2014, 02:58:25 PM »
You're right of course. In that case I'd obviously rather keep the better player and try to sign them again in free agency, and take the draft pick if you can't. Unless you're blown away by the value you're getting in return (and maybe the Braves believe Shelby Miller is more than the next Homer Bailey) I'd rather take the value NOW if I'm in contention.

I don't think the braves are in contention right now- the nats are in the middle of a run, the Mets are looking better, and the Marlins are too

Offline KnorrForYourMoney

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Re: Braves trade Heyward to Cardinals
« Reply #36: November 17, 2014, 03:02:47 PM »
You start with the cornerstones (even if you have to overpay them) and then fit the rest of the team around your budget, not vice versa.

Yep, good thing the Rockies did that with Tulo and the Twins with Mauer.  They've been perennial contenders ever since.

Offline sph274

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Re: Braves trade Heyward to Cardinals
« Reply #37: November 17, 2014, 03:09:14 PM »
i thought nobody on this board believed in advanced defensive metrics? literally half his value is founded on the idea that he is an advanced d metric god. are we not taking those with a grain of salt? he will almost certainly hit FA, or still demand a huge fair market value deal.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Braves trade Heyward to Cardinals
« Reply #38: November 17, 2014, 03:13:08 PM »
Yep, good thing the Rockies did that with Tulo and the Twins with Mauer.  They've been perennial contenders ever since.

Right. Nothing else going with those franchises...the problem is Tulo and Mauer not having 30-WAR seasons.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Braves trade Heyward to Cardinals
« Reply #39: November 17, 2014, 03:18:51 PM »
I don't think the braves are in contention right now- the nats are in the middle of a run, the Mets are looking better, and the Marlins are too

And maybe that's what they're basically admitting here, I don't know. I'd be kind of pissed, if I were a Braves fan, that coming off one bad year (after two playoff years) we started trading away guys for future talent. They won 94 and 96 games the two previous years before last year!

They had the 3rd youngest batting lineup in the major leagues last year and the 4th youngest pitching staff - time to blow it all up? Run's over?

Although I have to hand it to the Braves - given their recent drafting history it's probably better to NOT get a compensation pick for Heyward.

Offline sph274

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Re: Braves trade Heyward to Cardinals
« Reply #40: November 17, 2014, 03:21:38 PM »
And maybe that's what they're basically admitting here, I don't know. I'd be kind of pissed, if I were a Braves fan, that coming off one bad year (after two playoff years) we started trading away guys for future talent. They won 94 and 96 games the two previous years before last year!

They had the 3rd youngest batting lineup in the major leagues last year and the 4th youngest pitching staff - time to blow it all up? Run's over?

Although I have to hand it to the Braves - given their recent drafting history it's probably better to NOT get a compensation pick for Heyward.

the problem with that young batting lineup is that it blows. and they are gonna lose 1/2 of the guys who are good and young on it after next offseason. the pitching staff is legit young and solid and they got someone who is prob like a solid 3 until 2019

edit: or this means they have admitted they cant have both upton and heyward, and decided they would rather just sign upton and get what they can for heyward while they can

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: Braves trade Heyward to Cardinals
« Reply #41: November 17, 2014, 03:22:55 PM »
And maybe that's what they're basically admitting here, I don't know. I'd be kind of pissed, if I were a Braves fan, that coming off one bad year (after two playoff years) we started trading away guys for future talent. They won 94 and 96 games the two previous years before last year!

They had the 3rd youngest batting lineup in the major leagues last year and the 4th youngest pitching staff - time to blow it all up? Run's over?

Although I have to hand it to the Braves - given their recent drafting history it's probably better to NOT get a compensation pick for Heyward.

my guess is that 2017 is the year they're aiming for

Offline GburgNatsFan

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Re: Braves trade Heyward to Cardinals
« Reply #42: November 17, 2014, 03:28:34 PM »
Is this the thing you do when you figure the new park is going to draw them in for awhile? Seems familiar to me.... hmmm... who did this recently? :)

And maybe that's what they're basically admitting here, I don't know. I'd be kind of pissed, if I were a Braves fan, that coming off one bad year (after two playoff years) we started trading away guys for future talent. They won 94 and 96 games the two previous years before last year!

They had the 3rd youngest batting lineup in the major leagues last year and the 4th youngest pitching staff - time to blow it all up? Run's over?

Although I have to hand it to the Braves - given their recent drafting history it's probably better to NOT get a compensation pick for Heyward.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Braves trade Heyward to Cardinals
« Reply #43: November 17, 2014, 03:36:17 PM »
the problem with that young batting lineup is that it blows. and they are gonna lose 1/2 of the guys who are good and young on it after next offseason.

I feel like there's a decent lineup in there somewhere with Gattis, Heyward, J.Upton, Simmons, and Freeman. I don't know whether I blame the players or the Braves development team for only Freeman improving with age.

As far as losing guys vs. keeping them, that is something management certainly always wants fans to believe. However, the Braves could sign both Heyward AND J. Upton and still not pass the Nats in payroll.

Offline sph274

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Re: Braves trade Heyward to Cardinals
« Reply #44: November 17, 2014, 03:40:37 PM »
I feel like there's a decent lineup in there somewhere with Gattis, Heyward, J.Upton, Simmons, and Freeman. I don't know whether I blame the players or the Braves development team for only Freeman improving with age.

As far as losing guys vs. keeping them, that is something management certainly always wants fans to believe. However, the Braves could sign both Heyward AND J. Upton and still not pass the Nats in payroll.

eh, pushing them up to at least 95 mil pre arb, so prob like 115 after it. those guys are prob getting at least 20 mil annually each

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Braves trade Heyward to Cardinals
« Reply #45: November 17, 2014, 03:46:03 PM »
eh, pushing them up to at least 95 mil pre arb, so prob like 115 after it. those guys are prob getting at least 20 mil annually each

The figure you'd using already includes $23 million combined for J. Upton and Jason Heyward in 2015. In 2016, when they're both free agents, the Braves are <$85 million after arb and in 2017 are only $102 after arb, according to B-R.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Braves trade Heyward to Cardinals
« Reply #46: November 17, 2014, 03:48:06 PM »
We're $50 million ahead of them for 2015 after you take away Heyward.

Offline blue911

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Re: Braves trade Heyward to Cardinals
« Reply #47: November 17, 2014, 03:53:15 PM »

Although I have to hand it to the Braves - given their recent drafting history it's probably better to NOT get a compensation pick for Heyward.

They have Roy Clark back so that'll change.

Offline blue911

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Re: Braves trade Heyward to Cardinals
« Reply #48: November 17, 2014, 03:54:57 PM »
Greg Walker is a terrible hitting coach (Adam Dunn 2011) but I still wonder if Heyward is just another Nick Markakis.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Braves trade Heyward to Cardinals
« Reply #49: November 17, 2014, 04:03:14 PM »
They have Roy Clark back so that'll change.

Hahahaha. Well no wonder they're not going for a draft pick then, now that they have someone who can actually spot talent! Better to get a big league ready arm with a DL-ready UCL.