Author Topic: Arizona Fall League - 2014  (Read 3669 times)

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Offline Slateman

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Re: Arizona Fall League - 2014
« Reply #25: November 05, 2014, 07:55:25 AM »
I don't think full-time MLB'ers are allowed to play in the Arizona Fall League.

Not sure Espi qualifies as "full-time" :lol:

Offline GburgNatsFan

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Re: Arizona Fall League - 2014
« Reply #26: November 05, 2014, 08:42:21 AM »
Depends on how gritty you are.
Hard to do that from your couch at home :popcorn:

Offline PC

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Re: Arizona Fall League - 2014
« Reply #27: November 06, 2014, 03:48:23 PM »
Mesa on again tonight on MLB Network at 8:30.

Offline PC

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Re: Arizona Fall League - 2014
« Reply #28: November 06, 2014, 11:33:46 PM »
That's going to happen constantly next year with Zimmerman at first.  Runner at second, ball hit to third baseman.  He throws the ball to first for the out, the runner at second goes to third, forcing the first baseman to throw the ball back to third where the first baseman commits a throwing error and that runner scores.

That little routine will happen every game until Zimmerman is able to throw the ball across the diamond or is taken off first base.  There's no reason for opponents to not do it.

Offline PC

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Re: Arizona Fall League - 2014
« Reply #29: November 06, 2014, 11:42:35 PM »
Mesa wins 4-2.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Arizona Fall League - 2014
« Reply #30: November 07, 2014, 08:45:13 AM »
That's going to happen constantly next year with Zimmerman at first.  Runner at second, ball hit to third baseman.  He throws the ball to first for the out, the runner at second goes to third, forcing the first baseman to throw the ball back to third where the first baseman commits a throwing error and that runner scores.

That little routine will happen every game until Zimmerman is able to throw the ball across the diamond or is taken off first base.  There's no reason for opponents to not do it.

How many times did that happen this season?

Offline GburgNatsFan

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Re: Arizona Fall League - 2014
« Reply #31: November 07, 2014, 09:12:09 AM »
Maybe Zimm can handle that throw occasionally. Just not 10 times a game.
That's going to happen constantly next year with Zimmerman at first.  Runner at second, ball hit to third baseman.  He throws the ball to first for the out, the runner at second goes to third, forcing the first baseman to throw the ball back to third where the first baseman commits a throwing error and that runner scores.

That little routine will happen every game until Zimmerman is able to throw the ball across the diamond or is taken off first base.  There's no reason for opponents to not do it.

Offline houston-nat

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Re: Arizona Fall League - 2014
« Reply #32: November 07, 2014, 12:40:23 PM »
Mark Appel's slider roasting Spencer Kieboom.


Offline GburgNatsFan

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Re: Arizona Fall League - 2014
« Reply #33: November 07, 2014, 12:54:09 PM »
Watched that pitch last night and thought "woah."
Mark Appel's slider roasting Spencer Kieboom.

(Image removed from quote.)

Offline sph274

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Re: Arizona Fall League - 2014
« Reply #34: November 07, 2014, 01:42:16 PM »
That's going to happen constantly next year with Zimmerman at first.  Runner at second, ball hit to third baseman.  He throws the ball to first for the out, the runner at second goes to third, forcing the first baseman to throw the ball back to third where the first baseman commits a throwing error and that runner scores.

That little routine will happen every game until Zimmerman is able to throw the ball across the diamond or is taken off first base.  There's no reason for opponents to not do it.

eh, until you end the inning at 3B testing the 1B arm. really good way to kill a rally. its not like he couldnt make any of the throws, especially if he can plant his feet and toss it. that is a scenario that is pretty rare to begin with, how many times will their be a ground ball to 3B with a runner at 2B and no outs? if there is one out it makes no sense to run considering a fast runner can score from second on a base  hit with 2 outs and a slow runner that would need to be at 3B to score(making the risk worth taking) prob gets thrown out testing zim's arm. the first guy who takes that risk and loses will get lampooned.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Arizona Fall League - 2014
« Reply #35: November 07, 2014, 01:46:45 PM »
eh, until you end the inning at 3B testing the 1B arm. really good way to kill a rally. its not like he couldnt make any of the throws, especially if he can plant his feet and toss it. that is a scenario that is pretty rare to begin with, how many times will their be a ground ball to 3B with a runner at 2B and no outs? if there is one out it makes no sense to run considering a fast runner can score from second on a base  hit with 2 outs and a slow runner that would need to be at 3B to score(making the risk worth taking) prob gets thrown out testing zim's arm. the first guy who takes that risk and loses will get lampooned.

Why is anyone taking this "threat" seriously?

Offline PC

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Re: Arizona Fall League - 2014
« Reply #36: November 07, 2014, 02:49:52 PM »
eh, until you end the inning at 3B testing the 1B arm. really good way to kill a rally. its not like he couldnt make any of the throws, especially if he can plant his feet and toss it. that is a scenario that is pretty rare to begin with, how many times will their be a ground ball to 3B with a runner at 2B and no outs? if there is one out it makes no sense to run considering a fast runner can score from second on a base  hit with 2 outs and a slow runner that would need to be at 3B to score(making the risk worth taking) prob gets thrown out testing zim's arm. the first guy who takes that risk and loses will get lampooned.

"Prob gets thrown out testing zim's arm"?  You're very optimistic.

And you're right mostly, but getting to third with less than two outs allows you to score with a sac fly as opposed to a hit and remember, every team in baseball knows precisely why Zimmerman is being moved from third to first.  It's not a state secret.  Teams are going to want to see how well he throws from first to third knowing the difficulty he had throwing from third to first.

Offline sph274

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Re: Arizona Fall League - 2014
« Reply #37: November 07, 2014, 03:15:32 PM »
"Prob gets thrown out testing zim's arm"?  You're very optimistic.

And you're right mostly, but getting to third with less than two outs allows you to score with a sac fly as opposed to a hit and remember, every team in baseball knows precisely why Zimmerman is being moved from third to first.  It's not a state secret.  Teams are going to want to see how well he throws from first to third knowing the difficulty he had throwing from third to first.

he didnt freak up every throw that he made to 1B. the only time it would make sense to even risk it is if the out at 1B is the 1st out of the inning, so the runner can get in through sac fly. but for it to be worth it it pretty much has to be guarnteed, if zim even throws out 50% of the people who try it is not worth the chance. to go from runner on 2nd, no outs, to no runners on 2 outs kills an inning for something that isnt nearly as safe as you seem to think it is. there is one scenario where it might arise, if a hitter hits a leadoff double to start the inning. this isnt something that happens everyday, and it really isnt gonna be some massive flaw in his defensive abilities. why havent teams been doing this with other crappy 1B? do you think Adam Dunn had a cannon for an arm? Prince Fielder?

Offline imref

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Re: Arizona Fall League - 2014
« Reply #38: November 07, 2014, 03:19:55 PM »
i'm really struggling to think of a time where I've seen a 1B throw to 3rd.  A 3-6-3 or 3-2-3 DP are far more common (and even the 3-2-3 is pretty rare)

Offline PC

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Re: Arizona Fall League - 2014
« Reply #39: November 07, 2014, 03:55:56 PM »
he didnt freak up every throw that he made to 1B. the only time it would make sense to even risk it is if the out at 1B is the 1st out of the inning, so the runner can get in through sac fly. but for it to be worth it it pretty much has to be guarnteed, if zim even throws out 50% of the people who try it is not worth the chance. to go from runner on 2nd, no outs, to no runners on 2 outs kills an inning for something that isnt nearly as safe as you seem to think it is. there is one scenario where it might arise, if a hitter hits a leadoff double to start the inning. this isnt something that happens everyday, and it really isnt gonna be some massive flaw in his defensive abilities. why havent teams been doing this with other crappy 1B? do you think Adam Dunn had a cannon for an arm? Prince Fielder?

An error thrown from first to third scores a run whereas an error thrown from third to first just advances a runner to second.  The error at third is always huge.

The difference between Zimmerman and players like Dunn and Fielder is that the problems with their arms weren't highlighted.  We never knew how they threw a ball from first to third or vice versa because we never saw it.  Zimmerman's problems throwing were highlighted, sometimes gleefully, so we know the difficulty that he has throwing a ball that distance.

But you might be right, teams that know Zimmmerman's throwing problems might never test it.  We can hope or at least hope that he can make it, if he is tested.

i'm really struggling to think of a time where I've seen a 1B throw to 3rd.  A 3-6-3 or 3-2-3 DP are far more common (and even the 3-2-3 is pretty rare)

You should have watched this game last night.

Offline houston-nat

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Re: Arizona Fall League - 2014
« Reply #40: November 07, 2014, 04:09:25 PM »
An error thrown from first to third scores a run whereas an error thrown from third to first just advances a runner to second.  The error at third is always huge.
This assumes that in scenario 1, there is a runner on third, and in scenario 2, there is no runner on third. Apples/oranges. Many, many runs score on errors throwing to first.

Offline UMDNats

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Re: Arizona Fall League - 2014
« Reply #41: November 07, 2014, 04:41:31 PM »
That's going to happen constantly next year with Zimmerman at first.  Runner at second, ball hit to third baseman.  He throws the ball to first for the out, the runner at second goes to third, forcing the first baseman to throw the ball back to third where the first baseman commits a throwing error and that runner scores.

That little routine will happen every game until Zimmerman is able to throw the ball across the diamond or is taken off first base.  There's no reason for opponents to not do it.

i would bet this happens less than 10 times next year. zimm has his throwing issues, but this scenario won't happen as often as you think

Offline Slateman

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Re: Arizona Fall League - 2014
« Reply #42: November 07, 2014, 05:05:59 PM »
How long does it take a third baseman to throw to first? 1.5 seconds? How long to throw from first to third? 2 seconds

Is someone going to make it from second to third in under 3.5 seconds? I'm betting the number of people who can do that is kind of small. 90 percent of the time, he can throw from third to first with no real issues.
i would bet this happens less than 10 times next year. zimm has his throwing issues, but this scenario won't happen as often as you think
Agreed.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Arizona Fall League - 2014
« Reply #43: November 10, 2014, 09:26:49 AM »
Hahaha. I just checked in on this thread to see what was up....how did we get here?

This will happen so few times it's crazy to think about, but let's go through the mental math anyways? There will either be a man on second with 1 out (if the runner doesn't go), a runner on third with 1 out (if he goes and is successful) and no runners on with 2 outs (if he goes and is caught).

If he doesn't go, the run expectancy of a man on second with 1 out is about .68 runs. If he gets there, it goes up to about .94 runs. If he's caught, it goes down to .09 runs. So you're trying to gain .26 runs by risking .59 runs.

So it seems like you should have to make it 70% of the time to make it worthwhile.

Our 3B last year made under 2 assists per game, not all of which were to 1B (obviously). How many of those occurred with a man on second base, and how many of THOSE occurred with a Dee Gordon type on second base that could actually possibly achieve 70% success rate in that situation? Not very many, maybe a handful...

And even this silly mental math exercise assumes this 1.5 second 6-3 throwing time, which is, OF COURSE, ridiculous. The 3B obviously checks the runner back to second base and throws behind him if he strays too far, so the real time the runner has starts at release to first base. A third baseman throwing 70 MPH is throwing 102 ft per second. So even if the third baseman was standing on the bag, his throw only takes 1.25 seconds or so, and considerably less on most throws. Since Zimmerman likely has 2+ seconds for this throw, there's a huge margin of error.

So there's one situation where we should worry about this, and to get there we are in the World Series playing the Royals, with Jerrod Dyson on second base and a grounder to third with less than two outs.

I won't lose too much sleep over it...