Author Topic: Follow the Prospects, Erick Fedde, P  (Read 16756 times)

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Offline imref

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Follow the Prospects, Erick Fedde, P
« Topic Start: June 05, 2014, 10:18:22 PM »
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2070724-erick-fedde-prospect-profile-for-washington-nationals-1st-round-pick

Player: Erick Fedde
Drafted by: Washington Nationals, 2014, First Round, 16th pick overall
Position: RHP
DOB: 02/25/1993 (Age: 21)
Height/Weight: 6’4”, 170 pounds
Bats/Throws: R/R
School: UNLV
Previously Drafted: 24th round, 2011 (Padres)

Background
After a standout career both on the mound and on the pitch in high school, the Padres tried to lure Erick Fedde away from his commitment to UNLV by selecting him in the 24th round of the 2011 draft. However, Fedde ultimately passed on the opportunity to begin his professional career, which, in hindsight, turned out to be an excellent decision.

Fedde enjoyed immediate success as a member of the team’s 2012 starting rotation, as the true freshman opened eyes by posting a 3.59 ERA with 66 strikeouts in 90.1 innings (15 starts). The right-hander made exactly 15 starts once again the following season and produced a similar 3.92 ERA (in 96.1 innings), but he also showed an improved ability to miss bats with 83 strikeouts against 23 walks during that span.

Fedde’s impressive sophomore campaign earned him an invitation to the prestigious Cape Cod League, where he significantly improved his draft stock by posting a 2.34 ERA and 26/8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 30.2 innings (five starts) for the Yarmouth-Dennis Red Sox. Fedde appeared poise to run away with the league’s Outstanding Pitcher award before an invitation to join the Team USA Collegiate Team disrupted his summer campaign. However, his two-game stint with the national squad further improved his stock, as the right-hander registered a 3.18 ERA with eight strikeouts in 5.2 frames out of the bullpen. 

Fedde continued to build off his summer success this spring back at UNLV, and seemed to be a near-lock to be selected in the top 15 picks of this year’s draft after the 21-year-old posted a stellar 1.76 ERA with 82 strikeouts in 76.2 innings covering his first 11 starts. However, his promising season took an unexpected turn for the worse in early May when he missed a start with elbow soreness, which of course was followed by news that he’d need season-ending Tommy John surgery (via Aaron Fitt of Baseball America).

With the overwhelming success rate in recent years with pitchers who’ve undergone the surgery, Fedde is still in the mix to come off the board in the first round, especially for a team with multiple picks. However, there’s an equally strong possibility that he falls on Day 1 of the draft due to concern about how the injury will affect his long-term durability
 
Full Scouting Report

Body/Mechanics

Highly projectable 6’4”, 170-pound frame leaves room to fill out with good athleticism due to his wiry build; delivery and arm action are both relatively simple, though some effort is involved due to his lack of lower-half strength; shows posture issues at times with a head tilt to his glove side; works quickly and maintains steady pace over duration of outing; occasionally rushes toward the plate and loses a feel for his rhythm; adept at making swift, in-game adjustments.

Right-hander creates decent downhill plane from a high three-quarter arm slot; elbow injury amplifies pre-existing concerns about his long-term durability as a starter; has shown the ability to work deep into games, but his slot tends to drop rather quickly as he tires.

Courtesy of Baseball Prospectus
 
Fastball: 60/65

Fedde’s fastball sits in the 91-94 mph range with decent late life and topped out at 95-96 mph prior to the injury; it will jump on opposing hitters but lacks significant movement; command of pitch is a tick above average and allows him to locate it throughout the strike zone; flattens out and plays light-ish when he doesn’t get on top; he’ll need to avoid the top of the strike zone as a professional.

Slider: 55/60

Fedde’s slider is presently an above-average offering as well as his most consistent; thrown in the low 80s with good tilt and late break; has confidence to throw pitch in any count and work both sides of the plate against right- and left-handed hitters; good feel for how to bury it when vying for a whiff; as with his fastball, the slider becomes flat when his arm slot drops.

Changeup: 45/55

Slightly below-average offering that could add a full grade with the proper development; lacks consistent feel for the pitch, throwing it firmly at times in the 82-84 mph range; decent fading action should improve if he can learn to turn the pitch over a bit later; arm action has improved over the last year and now resembles that of his fastball; development of the pitch will determine whether or not he can turn over a major league lineup.

Control: 45/55

Consistently around zone with fastball and slider; aforementioned arm-slot issues can result in inefficiency and too many deep counts early in games; falls behind too many hitters, and the mistakes can be very hittable; throws lots of strikes, and walks have never been an issue.

Command: 40/50

Below-average command will need to improve to serve as a starter at the highest level; doesn’t always throw quality strikes; ability to locate slider in any given count aids the effectiveness of his fastball.

MLB Player Comparison: Jordan Zimmermann

Fedde obviously has a much slighter frame than Zimmermann, but both right-handers feature a plus fastball/slider combination as well as the ability to miss bats and work deep into games. Furthermore, Fedde’s mechanics—specifically his drift toward the plate and “inverted W” arm action—bear some similarity to Zimmermann’s prior to his Tommy John surgery.

Projection: No. 2 or 3 starter

Major Leagues ETA: Late 2016

Chances of Signing: 65 percent

Fedde had worked his way into the conversation as a potential top-10 pick prior to his season-ending elbow injury. The right-hander likely will demand first-round money to sign, which isn’t a guarantee considering he’ll be on the shelf for the next year-plus; therefore, he could return to college next season if he falls down the board on draft day.





Offline natasaurus

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Signing Fedde
« Reply #1: July 16, 2014, 01:03:33 PM »
If Fedde is really looking for $3 million, that's tenth pick territory, which he would have been looking at if he was healthy. I don't believe any teams picking after the Nats would have willing to give an injured pitcher the same bonus as if he had been healthy.  Hoffman, the better prospect, took the slot deal.

If signing Fedde would cause the loss of the first round pick from next year's draft, the Nats are probably better off taking the 19th overall pick and the 20-something pick in 2015 along with the larger bonus pool.  Then, sign Suarez for slot and Byler with the 300k they've saved with senior signs.

The new draft slots are adversely affecting Suarez too because he's a player who is presumably looking to sign at slot value or possibly just a little under.  Assuming Suarez will sign at anywhere from around 50k under to slot value or he'll return to Miami, Fedde can't get anywhere near $3 million without triggering the penalties.  If for some reason, Suarez doesn't sign, the Nats will get the 19th pick in the second round.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Re: 2014 MLB Draft
« Reply #2: July 16, 2014, 01:09:42 PM »
If Fedde is really looking for $3 million, that's tenth pick territory, which he would have been looking at if he was healthy. I don't believe any teams picking after the Nats would have willing to give an injured pitcher the same bonus as if he had been healthy.  Hoffman, the better prospect, took the slot deal.

If signing Fedde would cause the loss of the first round pick from next year's draft, the Nats are probably better off taking the 19th overall pick and the 20-something pick in 2015 along with the larger bonus pool.  Then, sign Suarez for slot and Byler with the 300k they've saved with senior signs.

The new draft slots are adversely affecting Suarez too because he's a player who is presumably looking to sign at slot value or possibly just a little under.  Assuming Suarez will sign at anywhere from around 50k under to slot value or he'll return to Miami, Fedde can't get anywhere near $3 million without triggering the penalties.  If for some reason, Suarez doesn't sign, the Nats will get the 19th pick in the second round.

if the 20th pick has 20th pick talent, I totally agree, if the 20th pick next year is an easily signed college reliever, on the other hand...

Offline zoom

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Re: Re: 2014 MLB Draft
« Reply #3: July 17, 2014, 09:59:17 AM »
More of the same info from Callis article:

By Jon Heyman: http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24623853/with-movement-slow-nats-and-no-1-pick-fedde-will-go-to-deadline

There's no evidence of movement in talks involving Nationals first-round pick Erick Fedde in recent days, and with the sides having begun pretty far apart, there's some chance Washington won't sign its top pick.

This looks like one that will go right down to the deadline Friday, at the very least, and even that's something of a surprise considering the positive history between Nationals GM Mike Rizzo and Scott Boras, who's advising Fedde, a UNLV right-hander with a big fastball. They previously made deals for No. 1 overall picks Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper with the Nats, and also made several deals when Rizzo was the scouting director of the Diamondbacks.

In this case, there's been a difference of opinion to date. Fedde is believed to be seeking something at least in the $3 million range, above the $2.15 million slot value attached to pick No. 18. The reasoning is based in part on the idea that Fedde was expected to be a top-10 pick, or maybe even top 5, before having to undergo Tommy John surgery just days before the draft.

One other issue is that other teams with more pool money, perhaps including the Astros and Marlins, are believed to have had interest in paying Fedde his rate had he slipped to them for their second picks.

Fedde's side is believed to have cited the deal for Lucas Giolito, who got $2.925 million from the same Nats as pick No. 16 in 2012 when he had Tommy John surgery on the docket; the Nats likely pointed out their belief that Giolito had an even higher ceiling.

Left-hander Sean Manaea, with hip labrum surgery in the offing, got $3.55 million as pick No. 34 last year from the Royals, a record amount for a supplemental first-rounder. And Jeff Hoffman, the East Carolina flamethrower who like Fedde had Tommy John surgery, signed for the $3.08 million slot as pick No. 9 by the Jays this year.

The Nationals are said to have started out much lower than that.

If Fedde doesn't sign he can return to the draft next year with his rehab complete.

Offline blue911

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Re: Re: 2014 MLB Draft
« Reply #4: July 17, 2014, 10:06:35 AM »
Fedde will sign.

He may want $3M but Boras knows that the Nationals can't spend that much without forfeiting next years 1st round pick.
Fedde has no way of increasing his value between now and the 2015 draft
UNLV isn't going to keep him on an athletic scholarship when he can't play. Division 1 schools have a surprisingly small number of baseball scholarships. They can offer him an academic scholarship but he wouldn't have use of the facilities or training staff. 

Offline sportsfan882

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Re: Re: 2014 MLB Draft
« Reply #5: July 17, 2014, 11:17:18 AM »
Yeah he has to sign. Meet somewhere in the middle and bam.

Offline blue911

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Re: Re: 2014 MLB Draft
« Reply #6: July 17, 2014, 11:49:11 AM »
Yeah he has to sign. Meet somewhere in the middle and bam.

There is no middle. The Nats can only exceed their spending allotment by 5% before losing a 1st round draft pick.

Offline imref

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Re: Re: 2014 MLB Draft
« Reply #7: July 17, 2014, 01:05:21 PM »
other than johanson, i'm hard pressed to recall when we didn't sign our top picks at the deadline.  I can't recall if Giolito signed early.

Offline natasaurus

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Re: Re: 2014 MLB Draft
« Reply #8: July 17, 2014, 08:17:46 PM »
Apparently we lost Suarez.  Going back to the U.

We also lose the bonus pool money which means less money for Fedde because the threshold for losing a draft pick will be lower.

Offline Mattionals

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Re: Re: 2014 MLB Draft
« Reply #9: July 18, 2014, 08:59:27 AM »
Assuming that Suarez is gone (I've only seen it reported by a lesser source and not one of the beat writers) then I would guess it would be hard to get Fedde as well.  This would be a disaster of a draft if that happens.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Re: 2014 MLB Draft
« Reply #10: July 18, 2014, 11:08:54 AM »
In the make the best out of a bad situation mode, is next year's draft bad enough and is Fedde good enough that you take the penalty and blow your budget?  Figure our pick is late 1st round.  Lose the pick and the budget associated with it, then what?

Offline natasaurus

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Re: Re: 2014 MLB Draft
« Reply #11: July 18, 2014, 11:16:18 AM »
Do we get two second round picks next season?

Yes. Pick 19 in round 2 and whatever we get with this year's record.

Offline Mattionals

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Re: Re: 2014 MLB Draft
« Reply #12: July 18, 2014, 11:24:38 AM »
In the make the best out of a bad situation mode, is next year's draft bad enough and is Fedde good enough that you take the penalty and blow your budget?  Figure our pick is late 1st round.  Lose the pick and the budget associated with it, then what?

Well, considering the Nats were willing to give up the last pick in the first round after 2012 for Soriano, I think picking that low would potentially be worth it as long as there isn't a signing in the offseason that the Nats feel they need to make with a player associated with a QO and losing a pick.

For what it's worth, the only guys that will be leaving via FA would be ALR, Span, Hairston, Frandsen and Soriano.  ALR and Span have club options, which is nice, and the only other guy with a player option is Soriano.  Barring a big trade and sign like say sending JZimm out and picking up a pitcher (not something I see happening), I think the Nats really won't make any big splashes on the market in the offseason.  I don't know what position players are going to be FA, but I always assumed that the next FA class was pitching dominant with Scherzer, Shields and potentially Lester.  The high end pitching prospects the Nats currently have are probably enough to fill the voids left in the pen, and pretty much everywhere else the team is set.  I wouldn't be surprised to see the Nats either promote a guy like Taylor or Souza up to play either CF or LF respectively with Zim moving to 1B.  Ideally, I would try out the outfield of Zim, Harper and Werth left to right and possibly swing with ALR next year as a platoon 1B with Zim.

From what I hear on Fedde, he is a JZimm like pitcher, stuff and mentality wise.  I think it is a smart sign, and he could be close to the "Giolito" of this draft.

Offline Squab

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Re: Re: 2014 MLB Draft
« Reply #13: July 18, 2014, 11:24:48 AM »
He'll sign, waiting until the deadline is Boras 101.

Offline gonats34

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Signing Fedde
« Reply #14: July 18, 2014, 12:51:20 PM »
Clock is ticking to sign Fedde. We have until 5 PM tonight. I know he's risky with the surgery and all, but if we're gonna commit to risky, young, injured pitchers (which we seem to want to do, i.e. Giolito and Fedde), then let's commit. Why waste a first round pick on someone you are not going to sign?

Offline sportsfan882

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Re: Re: 2014 MLB Draft
« Reply #15: July 18, 2014, 12:57:59 PM »
Fedde is a must sign

Suarez can freak off

Offline Ray D

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Re: Signing Fedde
« Reply #16: July 18, 2014, 12:58:40 PM »
It'll get done.  It's Boras, that's always last second.

Offline daggerrrrrr

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Re: 2014 MLB Draft
« Reply #17: July 18, 2014, 01:21:25 PM »
WASHINGTON -- The Nationals have until Friday at 5 p.m. ET to sign right-hander Erick Fedde, the 18th overall pick in the 2014 First-Year Player Draft.

It's not known how negotiations are going between the two parties, but The Washington Post quoted a baseball source who said he would not be surprised if the deadline passes without a deal being reached.

General manager Mike Rizzo believed Fedde would have been a top 10 pick if not for the Tommy John surgery he had on June 3, two days before the Draft. Whenever a player slips in the Draft due to injury, it further complicates negotiations, but the day after Fedde was selected, he said he was not worried about getting signed and believed everything would work out.

"I'm just worried about getting healthy and going from there," Fedde said. "The arm hurts a little. But it's not too bad. I'm not sure about the whole recovery process. … Hopefully, it will be about a year when I'm back on the mound."

The assigned value to the No. 18 selection is $2,145,600, but according to MLB.com's Jim Callis, another club had offered Fedde $3 million if it could grab him in the second round. As of now, Washington could go "above slot" and give Fedde as much as $2,567,785 without surrendering a future first-round pick.

That max amount will decrease if the Nats have to exceed slot values or are unable to sign left-handed pitcher Andrew Suarez ($987,800 at No. 57) or first baseman Austin Byler ($145,900 at No. 274). Suarez is expected to come to terms, while Byler likely will return for his senior season at the University of Nevada.

 If Fedde is not signed, the Nationals will get the 19th overall pick in the 2015 Draft as compensation.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/was/time-running-out-for-nationals-to-sign-first-round-pick-erick-fedde?ymd=20140717&content_id=85039526&vkey=news_was

Online Slateman

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Re: Signing Fedde
« Reply #18: July 18, 2014, 02:03:01 PM »
T-minus 3 hours

Offline machpost

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Re: Signing Fedde
« Reply #19: July 18, 2014, 02:14:14 PM »
Same thing happened with Stras and Harper. A lot of people feared that they wouldn't get signed.

Offline blue911

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Re: Signing Fedde
« Reply #20: July 18, 2014, 02:19:10 PM »
I imagine sometime in the next two hours Boras will finally state their contract demands.

Offline Mattionals

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Re: Signing Fedde
« Reply #21: July 18, 2014, 02:22:44 PM »
I think this gets done even if Suarez commits to go back to school.  I'm hoping the Nats end up with the 30th or so pick next year and if they must forfeit next year's pick, they do it.

Offline Ray D

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Re: Signing Fedde
« Reply #22: July 18, 2014, 02:24:05 PM »
other than johanson, i'm hard pressed to recall when we didn't sign our top picks at the deadline.

Aaron Crow, 2008.

Offline Mattionals

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Re: Signing Fedde
« Reply #23: July 18, 2014, 02:26:39 PM »

Offline zoom

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Re: Signing Fedde
« Reply #24: July 18, 2014, 02:32:20 PM »
Adam Kilgore ‏@AdamKilgoreWP 1m

Source: Nats and top pick Erick Fedde are drawing close to a deal. It will almost certainly get before today's 5 p.m. deadline.