As long as Bowden is the GM, born-again Guzman will stay. Unless a George Steinbrenner-type owner is buying the team, there's still 2 more years and a whole chunk of change committed to everyone's least favourite shortstop.
I don't think so.
Bowden isn't one of those GM's that clings desperately to his mistakes trying to prove he was right (least that's not his previous history).
I think the level of unpopularity with fans make Guzman a goner. He might even go back to what he was before DC next season, but I doubt with the Nats.
And they won't have to eat all of that 12 MIL; question is at what salary level - 3 MIL per year? 2 MIL? - he becomes attractive to another team.
If, for example, they could trade him for some kind of useful player and eat 3-6 MIL of the 12, I imagine Nats would be happy (well, not happy, but glad to be rid of him).
As ken pointed out, some very good SS out there as FA's (will be real interesting to see how Nomar plays when he comes back this season) and, since the Nats will be forced to rely heavily on the FA market, they won't want to miss the chance to upgrade.