Official Ryan Church 2007 Extrapolation Calculations

[tomterp]

Finally, a nice article from Ladson on Ryan that is not just backhanded complimentary.

Notes: Church giving his all
Nationals outfielder improving with both bat and glove
By Bill Ladson / MLB.com 


WASHINGTON -- Outfielder Ryan Church was hampered with a bad cold most of last week, but it didn't affect his swing, for he went 7-for-24 (.292) with a team-leading two home runs and four RBIs.
Church said the reason for his success, thus far, is because he is using his hands a lot more. He is keeping his hands back in order to be ready to hit the baseball.

"If I miss a pitch, [hitting coach] Mitchell [Page] is always doing these hand gestures. That's the biggest thing for me -- relax and not try to do too much," Church said.

Church also is showing improvement in center field. He made two good running catches against the Diamondbacks on Sunday.

"He is giving us all he has got," manager Manny Acta said. "He is no Nook Logan, but neither is 70 or 80 percent of the Major League center fielders."

Church hoped that getting rest on Sunday night and most of Monday helps him get over his cold. The team flies to Atlanta on Monday evening.

"I feel bad. I try to get as much rest as I can," Church said. "I just go out there and give it everything I have on that given day and go from there. We have the off-day [on Monday], and I hope to come back 100 percent the next day."

[Kenz aFan]

"I feel bad. I try to get as much rest as I can," Church said.

<tease mode ON>
Just like a certain comic strip character, Andy Capp, who gets as much rest as he can too.
<tease mode OFF>

[nats2playoffs]

Based on CBS Sportsline Fantasy Baseball points, Church is currently the 23rd best batter in MLB.  86% of his hits have been for extra bases, a higher rate than any of the 22 players above him.  He's on a pace for 92 doubles, walks and strikeouts, in addition to the latest pace statistics above.  He is ranked 9th for players being added to Fantasy rosters.  Only 12% of Fanasy owners had him last week, which rose to 33% this week.  Those extra base hits are worth a lot in Head-2-Head leagues, but you only start 3 OF's and 1 utility player.  Rotisserie leagues start 22 players, including 5 OF's and 2 utility players, so he's an easy choice to use there.   

 

[shoeshineboy]

Of course, we know that one week does not a season make. I still expect Church to produce with consistent ABs over the course of a season, but he'll have his ups and downs like anyone else. If Church was rated 23rd, Soriano may have fallen off the bottom of the list. All of this should return to normalcy by May.

[nats2playoffs]

Official Ryan Church 2007 Extrapolation Calculations:
After 8 games played, Ryan Church is currently on a pace for:
AB     R      H     HR  RBI   BB  SB    BA         OBP        SLG
546   60   162   40   81   81   0   0.2967   0.3876   0.6648
Only 3 ABs because his teammates were not hitting, but goes 1-3 with a strikeout.

[shoeshineboy]

And after tonight, the projection rises.

[nats2playoffs]

Official Ryan Church 2007 Extrapolation Calculations:
After 9 games played, Ryan Church is currently on a pace for:
AB     R      H     HR  RBI   BB  SB    BA         OBP        SLG
558   72   198   36   90   72   0   0.3548   0.4286   0.7097

[tomterp]

He got gypped of a higher RBI total last night when Kearns was held at 3rd on his double.  Kearns scored on Belliard's single, but looked like he could have scored easily on Ryan's double.

That one extra RBI would have equated to about 9 more in the extrapolation.

[nats2playoffs]

Official Ryan Church 2007 Extrapolation Calculations:
After 10 games played, Ryan Church is currently on a pace for:
AB     R      H    HR RBI   BB  SB    BA         OBP        SLG
567   64   194   32   81   64   0   0.3422   0.4089   0.6543
It's starting to look like what I used to rank him in the Forum's fantasy draft, except I thought his BA would be much lower.  He needs to steal a base soon.

For comparison:
Alfonso Soriano, Chicago Cubs, is on a 2007 pace for:
AB     R      H    HR  RBI  BB  SB    BA         OBP        SLG
708   60   141   0   0   20   20   0.1992   0.2420   0.3136
Jose Guillen, Seattle Mariners, is on a 2007 pace for:
486   97   129   0   0   32   0   0.2654   0.3509   0.3313

[Dave B]

Ladson had an eating crow section in his notes today.  Keep up the good work ryan and n 2 p

[KyleScha]

I'm way too lazy to format this, but Church continues to improve his stats...now on pace for 41 HRs and 81 doubles. He continues to have significantly more extra base hits than singles.

Another interesting note is that he's only struck out 7 times in 47 plate appearances. Lets hope he can keep this up at least somewhat. We all know he is a streaky hitter but he is riding a 12 game hitting streak.

[tomterp]

His susceptibility to the curve ball is greatly overstated.  Last year he demonstrated significant improvement in pitch selectivity, drawing plenty of walks.  To me, he's proving everyday that he's a, well, everyday player. 

[seadogsrock6]

wow. that

Official Ryan Church 2007 Extrapolation Calculations:

After 10 games played, Ryan Church is currently on a pace for:

AB     R      H    HR RBI   BB  SB    BA         OBP        SLG
567   64   194   32   81   64   0   0.3422   0.4089   0.6543
(Image removed from quote.)
Picture stolen from The Chief

It's starting to look like what I used to rank him in the Forum's fantasy draft, except I thought his BA would be much lower.  He needs to steal a base soon.

For comparison:
Alfonso Soriano, Chicago Cubs, is on a 2007 pace for:
AB     R      H    HR  RBI  BB  SB    BA         OBP        SLG
708   60   141   0   0   20   20   0.1992   0.2420   0.3136

Jose Guillen, Seattle Mariners, is on a 2007 pace for:
486   97   129   0   0   32   0   0.2654   0.3509   0.3313

wow. that would be money. guillen is so under-rated even tho hes startin out slow. nats are looking pretty good!

[nats2playoffs]

Official Ryan Church 2007 Extrapolation Calculations:
After 12 games played, Ryan Church is currently on a pace for:
AB     R      H    HR RBI   BB  SB    BA         OBP        SLG
523   74   186   37   74   62   0   0.3556   0.4239   0.7094
(I think I had the game count off.)

For comparison:
Alfonso Soriano, Chicago Cubs, is on a 2007 pace for:
AB     R      H    HR  RBI  BB  SB    BA         OBP        SLG
692   73   162   0   14   29   14   0.2341   0.2789   0.3613   
Jose Guillen, Seattle Mariners, is on a 2007 pace for:
546   81   101   20   40   20   0   0.1850   0.2406   0.3315
Brad Wilkerson, Texas Rangers, is on a 2007 pace for:
364   67   81   13   54   54   13   0.2225   0.3132   0.3654

[2k6nats]

Wow, Soriano has yet to hit a HR.

[nats2playoffs]

Wow, Soriano has yet to hit a HR.

We paid him $10 million in 2006, which is what Dimitri Young got from Detroit then, I think.  We're paying Young $750,000 for 2007.  Soriano's $136 million divided by 7 years = $19.4 million PER YEAR.
The Cubs curse continues...  they may lose 130 games.

[KyleScha]

I believe Soriano's contract is 8 years, not that it makes much difference though.

[Nat of the Living Dead]

Wow, Soriano has yet to hit a HR.

And just think, he'd be hitting those 0 homeruns in Nats uniform if we coughed up such big money for one aging, contract year player.

If that Chicago investment doesn't pay off, I expect riots in the streets of Chicago by season's end.

[nats2playoffs]

...If that Chicago investment doesn't pay off, I expect riots in the streets of Chicago by season's end.

Even more hilarious - they are trying to sell the team, and the buyer does NOT get ownership of Wrigley Field.  I don't blame Soriano for taking the money, but I thought it was way too much.  He has a long history of good health, but the career stats don't justify that much.

[The Chief]

Don't look now but Soriano is on the DL "day to day" with a strained hammy - http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070416&content_id=1909752&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

[Ericas Nats]

sori, was he kinda a one hit wonder...

i mean one season wonder...

[shoeshineboy]

sori, was he kinda a one hit wonder...
i mean one season wonder...

Actually Soriano has been a consistent 30-30 guy. He's a free swinger with limited plate discipline. He's a flawed player, but a rare combination of power and speed. Last year's numbers were definitely a spike, but a lot had to do with pitchers not taking advantage of his weaknesses. I still expect him to put up what he normally does. Which means he'll bat around .270 with a .320 OBP, hit around 30 HRs and steal 20-30 bases. He's productive, flawed, dynamic, and overpaid. I loved the guy before he came to DC, and really enjoyed having him. But only an idiot would give him the contract the Cubs gave him.

[Nat of the Living Dead]

($0)rian0, when your sitting on the DL I want you to ponder one word that many take for granted: karma.

[nats2playoffs]

Official Ryan Church 2007 Extrapolation Calculations:

After 13 games played, Ryan Church is currently on a pace for:

AB     R      H    HR RBI   BB  SB    BA         OBP        SLG
548   74   186   37   74   87   0   0.3394   0.4299   0.6770

Picture stolen from The Chief

Yes, Soriano's contract is 8 years or $17 million per year average.  Since he hit much better in day games and the Cubs play over half at home in the day, they might have thought his stats would improve.

[Dave B]

I dont know how much karma has to do with it. It is not his fault someone overpaid him. And sitting on the bench still collecting millions is not much of a curse.  If he was not getting paid then it could be seen as the universe evening out.  But he is still doing pretty well for himself.    so he actually is playing center?  I might have to tune in