Author Topic: K-Law's top 100 prospects and Nats's system ranking  (Read 4437 times)

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Offline Lintyfresh85

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Law's putting a lot of faith in Severino showing a plus bat. He only hit .245 in Low A... of course he's projecting off the physical tools he sees... if he ends up spot on with a solid bat I'll give KLaw the props he deserves... cause right now I don't see it.

Offline NJ Ave

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KLaw does love making bold predictions one way or the other. He put Karns in his top 100 last year based on a #2 starter projection (ambitious) and claimed that Tommy Milone wasn't a major league pitcher long after he actually BECAME a major league pitcher. Meanwhile, odds are against Nathan Karns ever having the career Tommy Milone will have.

In the same way, no matter how much you love Pedro Severino, I don't see how you can put him above Steven Souza unless you're just stirring the pot. Souza may have been old for AA last year, but has shown his bat for two straight years and has the athletic projection to be a MLB OF. He beats Severino in "risk" - I don't care what you say, there are lots of catchers whose defense is major league ready but can't put up better than Espinosa 2013 numbers and never stick. And I don't see how he doesn't beat Severino in "ceiling" either, considering his ceiling is pretty high and Severino's seems to be "good defensive C who hits JUSSSST enough to start".

So what exactly are we grading on here?

Similarly with Jefry Rodriguez over Jake Johansen. That's just a "look at me" ranking.

Offline welch

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Maybe Law assumes that catcher is a more important position than the several IF/OF positions that Souza plays?

However, I haven't seen Severino, but Souza and Burns were the most interesting position players on Harrisburg...at least of those I saw in one whole late-season game. When Souza connects, you can feel the ball say "ouch", and he runs hard (I don't know how fast)...just has an enthusiasm or energy that is fun to watch (in H-burg, where almost every seat is close enough to see the expression on a player's face).

Offline Lintyfresh85

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What does KLaw have to say about Burns. I assume pretty negative... but then again he seemed to posses most of the talents needed to make it in the bigs minus a power bat.

Burns is still the only minor leaguer I've ever seen (that wasn't a pitcher) that had the opposing team have their outfielders play a deep infield when came to bat.

Offline comish4lif

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What does KLaw have to say about Burns. I assume pretty negative... but then again he seemed to posses most of the talents needed to make it in the bigs minus a power bat.

Burns is still the only minor leaguer I've ever seen (that wasn't a pitcher) that had the opposing team have their outfielders play a deep infield when came to bat.
Check Law's writeup on the A's.

Quote
Athletics acquired OF Billy Burns from the Nationals for LHP Jerry Blevins.

Offline welch

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What does KLaw have to say about Burns. I assume pretty negative... but then again he seemed to posses most of the talents needed to make it in the bigs minus a power bat.

Burns is still the only minor leaguer I've ever seen (that wasn't a pitcher) that had the opposing team have their outfielders play a deep infield when came to bat.

Ha!

(Although I think I saw Burns get an infield single out of a routine ground ball to the SS. Maybe down the 3B line? Pitcher and catcher looked spooked: he then stole second or third.)

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Ha!

(Although I think I saw Burns get an infield single out of a routine ground ball to the SS. Maybe down the 3B line? Pitcher and catcher looked spooked: he then stole second or third.)

By far the fastest player I've ever seen play minors or majors. That's definitely his calling card.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Burns sounds like Herb Washington with baseball skills.

Offline blue911

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Burns sounds like Herb Washington with baseball skills.

Matt Alexander.


Offline NJ Ave

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How can you put Bauer above Cole at this point?

Online HalfSmokes

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At 21. I wonder how low BA will have our system with no great prospects (unless 21 qualifies as great) and one in the top hundred. Nice to see the $115 million pitcher at four. 

Offline sportsfan882

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Alex Meyer at 45. :? Span better kick ass this season.

Offline natasaurus

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How can you put Bauer above Cole at this point?

It's hard to see the rationale, but Cole has been ranked in every other top 100 so far, so let's just use baseball prospectus instead.  :) It is a bit odd though.  Maybe BA sees him as a future reliever?  Or they haven't forgotten his struggles in 2012?


Offline natasaurus

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I just remembered this from the chat that went along with the Nats 2014 top ten. 

Quote
Noel (Portland, OR): Besides Giolito, does anyone else make the top 100 list?
Aaron Fitt: I suspect Cole will make it, but my gut says that’s it. Goodwin should be in the discussion too, but he had a pretty mediocre year. By this time next year, we should have a better feel for whether guys like Robbie Ray, Solis, Goodwin, Taylor and Skole are legit Top 100 candidates. All of them could grow into that sort of status, but right now I don’t think they are there.

Fitt seemed to think that Cole is "there" so that's good to know. 

Offline blue911

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Reading BA's scouting reports makes me think they don't actually go out and watch baseball games.

Online imref

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Alex Meyer at 45. :? Span better kick ass this season.

I thought I heard that the twins have Meyer in the rotation this year.


Updat: never mind, not on the 40 man yet and with only about 100 innings last year might make it as a late season call up.

Online mitlen

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(getting old sucks, vision is already fading....)  :)

Next thing to go is   ..   ummm   ....  the hell with.   I can't remember.

Offline Mr Clean

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Says very strong reports on P Jefry Rodriguez  and Drew Ward.

Online GburgNatsFan

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Look down.
Next thing to go is   ..   ummm   ....  the hell with.   I can't remember.

Online mitlen

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Look down.

That's further down the list.   ;)

Offline NJ Ave

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https://twitter.com/ProfessorParks
Says very strong reports on P Jefry Rodriguez  and Drew Ward.


This is why I don't worry about farm system rankings. Since Rizzo has been GM, regardless of rankings, we've consistently developed talent that either helps the major league roster or that we use to trade for good major league pieces. Since Rizzo seems like a high volume-type GM, it's been mostly the latter (which is good because he also seems good at trades).

But look at the difference between what we gave up for Fister and what the Royals gave up for Shields, who was more expensive and not as good. The Royals gave up a former 1st rounder (Odorizzi) and an overslot 3rd rounder (Myers signed for $2 million and was a top 25 prospect going into the draft) who also was a top 5 prospect at the time of the trade. I mean, the ability to develop players adds SOOOO much value.

Imagine if we had to give up Rendon and Cole to get Fister because only our top selections ever because decent prospects. Yikes.

Online HalfSmokes

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Imagine if we had to give up Rendon and Cole to get Fister because only our top selections ever because decent prospects. Yikes.

um, only our top selections (since rizzo became GM) have become starters and right now (supposedly) the only decent prospects we have are Giolito (top selection) goodwin (sandwhich) and cole (4th rounder in the days when you could pay a fourth rounder $2 million). Rizzo is the master of great trades, but our farm system isn't exactly coughing up talent like St Louis or tampa

Offline NJ Ave

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um, only our top selections (since rizzo became GM) have become starters and right now (supposedly) the only decent prospects we have are Giolito (top selection) goodwin (sandwhich) and cole (4th rounder in the days when you could pay a fourth rounder $2 million). Rizzo is the master of great trades, but our farm system isn't exactly coughing up talent like St Louis or tampa

Ridiculous. It's somehow a BAD thing that Rizzo has kept all our top picks because his scouting department creates enough value further down the chain to get Ramos, Gio and Fister (about 10-12 WAR worth, all acquired with multiple years of team control) without giving up a SINGLE high draft pick?

Bogus.

There are multiple ways to fill your roster with talent. If Rizzo's strength is building up minor league reputations and then trading them away at their peaks for players with better long-term outlooks....GOOD FOR HIM.

If your point is that Rizzo is unsustainably hoodwinking other teams into taking our crappy players and giving us good players in return, I guess we'll see over time. But in the meantime, if Matt Skole has a huge year and then Rizzo trades him away for another good player, I'm still going to give Rizzo credit for drafting and developing Skole, regardless of whether Skole produces for the Nats himself, or if he's simply turned INTO a player who produces for the Nats.

Offline NJ Ave

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Signs of a bad GM according to HalfSmokes: keeping your top draft picks instead of trading them; having your top draft picks consistently turn into good major league pieces; trading for better players with multiple years of team control instead of using lesser players within your own system because "you developed them yourself".

Anything I'm missing?