Author Topic: Follow the Non-Prospects: Danny Espinosa, 2B  (Read 17003 times)

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Offline HalfSmokes

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Because it might make the most sense with the assets the team has. And it's not easy to make a decent first base bat appear. The two best bats available in free agency last offseason were LaRoche and Swisher, neither of whom is on pace for an average major league season (2 WAR). The year before was Prince Fielder and a bunch of stiffs. I think you're overestimating how easy it is to find a bat.

If Skole pans out as a real slugger, maybe you trade Espinosa. But the internal options are not looking so great right now.

even laroche is putting up .259/.339/.445   while not having his best year, that's slightly better than your uninjured espinosa line. I don't think WAR is necessarily a fair measure here since you're talking about shifting positions, you're inserting a 2B, but the bat he's ultimately replacing is a 1B, so the positional adjustment probably should be backed out to make the comparison fair. You're not necessarily talking about a big defensive upgrade either- yes espinosa should be an improvement over Rendon, but how does Zimmerman compare to Rendon at third, and how would Zimmerman learning first compare to a first baseman?

Offline mimontero88

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Because it might make the most sense with the assets the team has. And it's not easy to make a decent first base bat appear. The two best bats available in free agency last offseason were LaRoche and Swisher, neither of whom is on pace for an average major league season (2 WAR). The year before was Prince Fielder and a bunch of stiffs. I think you're overestimating how easy it is to find a bat.

If Skole pans out as a real slugger, maybe you trade Espinosa. But the internal options are not looking so great right now.
You really don't think too highly of Albert Pujols do you?

Offline mimontero88

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even laroche is putting up .259/.339/.445   while not having his best year, that's slightly better than your uninjured espinosa line. I don't think WAR is necessarily a fair measure here since you're talking about shifting positions, you're inserting a 2B, but the bat he's ultimately replacing is a 1B, so the positional adjustment probably should be backed out to make the comparison fair. You're not necessarily talking about a big defensive upgrade either- yes espinosa should be an improvement over Rendon, but how does Zimmerman compare to Rendon at third, and how would Zimmerman learning first compare to a first baseman?
You're high.

Offline Smithian

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The numbers, as you say, tell the story:

Danny 2012 pre-injury: .258/.323/.423 - an improvement on his career numbers to that point and actually a valuable hitter
Danny 2012 post-injury: .181/.261/.277
Danny 2013: .158/.193/.272
That Espinosa is a really valuable player, especially when you add in his glove. He really needs to get healthy. I want him to get right in the minors so that we can see him again in September or in 2014.

Offline sportsfan882

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What are you talking about, he's not getting better in the Minors or healthier.

Offline GburgNatsFan

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Not getting into this argument, but Albert Pujols is not having a very good year. .256/.330/.448. Very close to LaRoche numbers.

I'm sure he'll get better.

You really don't think too highly of Albert Pujols do you?

Offline mimontero88

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Not getting into this argument, but Albert Pujols is not having a very good year. .256/.330/.448. Very close to LaRoche numbers.

I'm sure he'll get better.

At the time of his free agency he was arguably the best player in the game.

Offline Slateman

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That Espinosa is a really valuable player, especially when you add in his glove. He really needs to get healthy. I want him to get right in the minors so that we can see him again in September or in 2014.
Not sure you understand. Espinosa's surgery will shut him down for the rest of the year. 2014 is an option, but not September.

Not getting into this argument, but Albert Pujols is not having a very good year. .256/.330/.448. Very close to LaRoche numbers.

I'm sure he'll get better.

Bum elbow, bad knee, and plantar fasciitis. Oh and the guy is producing and the Angels don't have anyone worth replacing him at this point.

Online tomterp

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At the time of his free agency he was arguably the best player in the game.

He's in rapid decline now.  Prior to free agency he'd OPS's at or over 1.0 8 consecutive years before dropping to a measly .906 his final year in St. Louis.  Since, he's hit .859 and .758.  A mere shadow of his former self, and given that he's widely reported to be nursing a torn UCL, a high injury risk.  He had "avoid" written all over him, at least at the price he was going to command.

Offline mimontero88

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He's in rapid decline now.  Prior to free agency he'd OPS's at or over 1.0 8 consecutive years before dropping to a measly .906 his final year in St. Louis.  Since, he's hit .859 and .758.  A mere shadow of his former self, and given that he's widely reported to be nursing a torn UCL, a high injury risk.  He had "avoid" written all over him, at least at the price he was going to command.
Yeah amazing how bad that contract looks for the Angels right now.  At the current rate, Pujols could go down as the biggest bust free agent signing in the history of baseball.

Offline imref

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Yeah amazing how bad that contract looks for the Angels right now.  At the current rate, Pujols could go down as the biggest bust free agent signing in the history of baseball.

given the issues with A-Rod, that's saying a lot.

Offline houston-nat

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The good news is that Danny Espinosa is directing a serial killer thriller movie set in Stalinist Russia, starring Tom Hardy, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Gary Oldman, and Noomi Rapace.

http://www.avclub.com/articles/adaptation-of-bestseller-child-44-underway-with-to,99443/

Offline mimontero88

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The good news is that Danny Espinosa is directing a serial killer thriller movie set in Stalinist Russia, starring Tom Hardy, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Gary Oldman, and Noomi Rapace.

http://www.avclub.com/articles/adaptation-of-bestseller-child-44-underway-with-to,99443/
Well no wonder he isn't hitting.  Hard to split your time between two projects as demanding as directing a movie and playing professional baseball.  The movie will probably suck too proving once and for all that multitasking isn't as productive as we all think it is.

Offline houston-nat

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Well no wonder he isn't hitting.  Hard to split your time between two projects as demanding as directing a movie and playing professional baseball.  The movie will probably suck too proving once and for all that multitasking isn't as productive as we all think it is.
PSH and Gary Oldman and Communist serial killers? That movie's gonna be awesome.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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And BANE.

Offline mimontero88

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PSH and Gary Oldman and Communist serial killers? That movie's gonna be awesome.
If you look at the cast of Grown Ups having never seen it you would say it would be awesome... Just sayin...

Offline NJ Ave

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even laroche is putting up .259/.339/.445   while not having his best year, that's slightly better than your uninjured espinosa line. I don't think WAR is necessarily a fair measure here since you're talking about shifting positions, you're inserting a 2B, but the bat he's ultimately replacing is a 1B, so the positional adjustment probably should be backed out to make the comparison fair. You're not necessarily talking about a big defensive upgrade either- yes espinosa should be an improvement over Rendon, but how does Zimmerman compare to Rendon at third, and how would Zimmerman learning first compare to a first baseman?

Rendon is playing average, at best, defense at 2B while Espinosa plays Gold Glove caliber defense there. Rendon plays excellent 3B defense while Zimmerman is playing below average (at best) defense there. Further, your post makes a number of assumptions, among them Zimmerman actually being able to play 3B adequately after LaRoche leaves next year, as well as the fact that we can find someone to plug in at 1B to even replace a reasonable uninjured Espinosa-level bat - say .250/.325/.425.

I'm trying to point out that kind of bat is not exactly easy to find. There's no guarantee Tyler Moore can give you that, Chris Marrero, Matt Skole, etc. There's no guarantee you can get that on the free agent market if you're not willing to give someone 8 years and $200 million. Otherwise at 1B you seem like you're stuck with a guy that looks an awful lot like Carlos Pena.

This isn't the steroid era anymore. If this is your infield, you're doing very well offensively:

1B: Zimmerman .825 OPS
2B: Espinosa .750 OPS
3B: Rendon .850 OPS
SS: Desmond .825 OPS

Not to mention that should be a fantastic defensive infield. Now if Tyler Moore/Matt Skole can OPS .850, maybe it's worth having worse defense at 1B, 2B, and 3B, maybe not. But we don't have a ton of boppers ready to come up and be that guy.

Offline NJ Ave

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Also, I bet you're losing 2 wins a year with 3B Zimmerman and 2B Rendon instead of 3B Rendon and 2B Espinosa. Maybe you disagree.

Offline mimontero88

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Also, I bet you're losing 2 wins a year with 3B Zimmerman and 2B Rendon instead of 3B Rendon and 2B Espinosa. Maybe you disagree.
According to UZR Zimmerman has lost us .8 wins with his defense this season and Anthony Rendon (incredibly small sample size) has lost us .1 wins with his 2B defense.  Danny Espinosa earned us .3 wins in an incredibly small sample size and in the smallest sample size of all Rendon at 3rd was good for .1 win.  If you extract those numbers over the course of the season it would probably amount to a net difference of 3-4 wins.

Offline NJ Ave

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I think on the conservative side, Rendon is a -.5 win player at second while Espy is a +.5 win player there, and Rendon is currently a +.5 win player at 3B while Zimmerman is a -.5 win player there.

That might be understating, but I find it hard to imagine that's overstating the defensive difference.

Offline HalfSmokes

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You don't think you can find a first baseman who can hit as well as Danny Espinosa? Even his best year would rank him near the bottom of first basemen. Espinosa's high water mark for OPS was .737 in 2011, that would put him at 23 out of 30 qualified first basemen this year. If Zimmerman really can't play third, then you don't have a choice, but unless that happens, I'd rather see more offense

Offline mimontero88

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You don't think you can find a first baseman who can hit as well as Danny Espinosa? Even his best year would rank him near the bottom of first basemen. Espinosa's high water mark for OPS was .737 in 2011, that would put him at 23 out of 30 qualified first basemen this year. If Zimmerman really can't play third, then you don't have a choice, but unless that happens, I'd rather see more offense
You could always sign Robinson Cano if you have to move Zim to 1B.  There's your first-base bat in a second baseman right there.

Offline NJ Ave

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In terms of offense, a healthy Espinosa has been roughly a +2.5 run hitter, as he was in 2011. So to get back the 2 [assumed] wins lost from Rendon and Zimmerman playing sub-optimal defensive positions, you need a 22.5 run hitter to replace Espinosa.

That's a top 25 hitter last season, the equivalent of Allen Craig (.307/.354/.522).

If you can find that guy to plug in at 1B, I'm all for it.

Offline NJ Ave

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You don't think you can find a first baseman who can hit as well as Danny Espinosa? Even his best year would rank him near the bottom of first basemen. Espinosa's high water mark for OPS was .737 in 2011, that would put him at 23 out of 30 qualified first basemen this year. If Zimmerman really can't play third, then you don't have a choice, but unless that happens, I'd rather see more offense

I think it's hard to find a first baseman who hits so much better than Danny Espinosa it offsets the fact he plays much better defense than Rendon, and the other fact that Rendon probably plays much better defense than Zimmerman at this point. You don't need to beat a .750 OPS, you need to beat something like an .850 OPS.

Offline NJ Ave

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I'd rather see more offense

I'd rather see more wins.