Author Topic: Follow the Non-Prospects: Danny Espinosa, 2B  (Read 17505 times)

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Offline mimontero88

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I think it's hard to find a first baseman who hits so much better than Danny Espinosa it offsets the fact he plays much better defense than Rendon, and the other fact that Rendon probably plays much better defense than Zimmerman at this point. You don't need to beat a .750 OPS, you need to beat something like an .850 OPS.
I'm not sure I understand what you're saying.  Why would be looking for a 1B at all with Rendon at 3B?  That would make Zimmerman the 1B. 

Offline NJ Ave

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All kidding aside though, you're being simplistic when you ask if I don't think there's a 1B to outhit Danny. Of course there is, but Danny is not getting plugged in at 1B, and so hitting is not the only variable. From my count, here are the considerations:

1. Danny's defense vs. Rendon's at 2B
2. Rendon's defense vs. Zimmerman's at 3B
3. Zimmerman's defense vs. LaRoche's at 1B
4. Danny's bat vs. LaRoche's bat.

All of these things matter.

Online HalfSmokes

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I'd rather see more wins.

because stopping runs is this team's problem? The Nats are 29 in runs scored, taking away offense doesn't seem like a good idea

Offline NJ Ave

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I'm not sure I understand what you're saying.  Why would be looking for a 1B at all with Rendon at 3B?  That would make Zimmerman the 1B. 

No, HS is making it seem like the only variable is whether Danny can outhit another 1B we can find. If he can't, we should keep Rendon at 2B and Zimmerman at 3B and tough luck, Danny. I'm pointing out that hitting is not the only consideration.

Offline mimontero88

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The more I read on this the more I think Robinson Cano solves all of our problems.  In this scenario you swap Espinosa's defense at 2B for Cano's defense at 2B but you get Cano's bat instead of LaRoche's.  Your infield is:

1B - Zimmerman
2B - Cano
SS - Desi
3B - Rendon

World Series or Bust :D

Offline mimontero88

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No, HS is making it seem like the only variable is whether Danny can outhit another 1B we can find. If he can't, we should keep Rendon at 2B and Zimmerman at 3B and tough luck, Danny. I'm pointing out that hitting is not the only consideration.
HS doesn't understand at all the finer points of defensive win value.  He thinks offense is all that matters.  Good luck but you're seriously wasting your time.  He thinks guys like Adam Dunn win you championships.

Offline NJ Ave

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The more I read on this the more I think Robinson Cano solves all of our problems.  In this scenario you swap Espinosa's defense at 2B for Cano's defense at 2B but you get Cano's bat instead of LaRoche's.  Your infield is:

1B - Zimmerman
2B - Cano
SS - Desi
3B - Rendon

World Series or Bust :D

I would DEFINITELY rather have Cano than Espy :)

Offline TigerFan

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Cano is going to be staying in pinstripes.  He signed Jay Z as his agent and we all know he has a NY state of mind.  Plus I'm not sure the Lerners will want to put that kind of money out there with the upcoming salaries that are going to be offered to Jordan, Stras and BH. 

Online HalfSmokes

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No, HS is making it seem like the only variable is whether Danny can outhit another 1B we can find. If he can't, we should keep Rendon at 2B and Zimmerman at 3B and tough luck, Danny. I'm pointing out that hitting is not the only consideration.

It's not the only consideration, but Rendon's offense is far better than the average second baseman, in 25 games, 100 plate appearances, Rendon is already at .9 WAR- even with his sub-danny defense. If you compare his rate stats to second basemen, he's already elite. The question is, is his glove at least serviceable - right now, WAR seems to think it is.

Online Slateman

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Rendon is playing average, at best, defense at 2B while Espinosa plays Gold Glove caliber defense there. Rendon plays excellent 3B defense while Zimmerman is playing below average (at best) defense there. Further, your post makes a number of assumptions, among them Zimmerman actually being able to play 3B adequately after LaRoche leaves next year, as well as the fact that we can find someone to plug in at 1B to even replace a reasonable uninjured Espinosa-level bat - say .250/.325/.425.

I'm trying to point out that kind of bat is not exactly easy to find. There's no guarantee Tyler Moore can give you that, Chris Marrero, Matt Skole, etc. There's no guarantee you can get that on the free agent market if you're not willing to give someone 8 years and $200 million. Otherwise at 1B you seem like you're stuck with a guy that looks an awful lot like Carlos Pena.

This isn't the steroid era anymore. If this is your infield, you're doing very well offensively:

1B: Zimmerman .825 OPS
2B: Espinosa .750 OPS
3B: Rendon .850 OPS
SS: Desmond .825 OPS

Not to mention that should be a fantastic defensive infield. Now if Tyler Moore/Matt Skole can OPS .850, maybe it's worth having worse defense at 1B, 2B, and 3B, maybe not. But we don't have a ton of boppers ready to come up and be that guy.

*sigh* Danny does not play gold glove defense. He never has. Until he actually wins one, he doesn't play it. Or until he places top 5 in UZR or DRS. He plays good defense.

Personally, I'd rather have four infielders OPSing over .800 than hope and pray Danny can get to .750 ... or even .700

Offline mimontero88

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It's not the only consideration, but Rendon's offense is far better than the average second baseman, in 25 games, 100 plate appearances, Rendon is already at .9 WAR- even with his sub-danny defense. If you compare his rate stats to second basemen, he's already elite. The question is, is his glove at least serviceable - right now, WAR seems to think it is.
WAR doesn't think his glove is serviceable.  It thinks his offense is so good that it doesn't matter.  But if you could get him to 3B and get Zim to 1B you would still have those two bats but greatly improve the D while adding Espinosa's bat in place of LaRoche's.  Frankly, if you look at the difference, it would amount to more wins according to WAR.  That said, I don't think we've seen the best from LaRoche yet so in reality I would still give the edge to LaRoche in the lineup over Espi and take the lost defense.  It is close though.

EDIT:  Should clarify that I'm referring to a healthy Espi in this post not the corpse we have in AAA right now.

Offline NJ Ave

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*sigh* Danny does not play gold glove defense. He never has. Until he actually wins one, he doesn't play it. Or until he places top 5 in UZR or DRS. He plays good defense.

Personally, I'd rather have four infielders OPSing over .800 than hope and pray Danny can get to .750 ... or even .700

*sigh* like last year when his UZR/150 was 5th in the major leagues at 2B? Or should I ignore that because he played 35 games of SS with a UZR/150 higher than anyone who played more than 250 innings of SS, besides Andrelton Simmons.

*sigh*

Offline mimontero88

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*sigh* like last year when his UZR/150 was 5th in the major leagues at 2B? Or should I ignore that because he played 35 games of SS with a UZR/150 higher than anyone who played more than 250 innings of SS, besides Andrelton Simmons.

*sigh*
Yeah but those are just facts.

Online HalfSmokes

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Strasburg is 8.97 k/9, gio is 8.91, and Zimmermann is a respectable 6.35. With a high K rotation, you are devaluing defense to some extent. I wouldn't want David Ortiz at first or Zimmerman trying to play short again, but a reasonably competent (i.e. not too much below average) middle infielder with a bat like Rendon's is tremendously valuable.

Offline mimontero88

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Strasburg is 8.97 k/9, gio is 8.91, and Zimmermann is a respectable 6.35. With a high K rotation, you are devaluing defense to some extent. I wouldn't want David Ortiz at first or Zimmerman trying to play short again, but a reasonably competent (i.e. not too much below average) middle infielder with a bat like Rendon's is tremendously valuable.
And that same bat is more valuable as a + defender at 3B.  No one is making an argument about taking Rendon's bat out of the lineup so I don't know why you keep mentioning his bat.  It has nothing to do with this conversation.

Online HalfSmokes

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And that same bat is more valuable as a + defender at 3B.  No one is making an argument about taking Rendon's bat out of the lineup so I don't know why you keep mentioning his bat.  It has nothing to do with this conversation.

forget rendon, putting danny into the lineup at the expense of a first baseman's bat isn't worthwhile unless either Zimmerman has to be moved or Rendon proves incapable of playing serviceable second

Offline NJ Ave

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I mean, this is all kind of academic because we're obviously going to disagree on the subject matter, but for positional adjustments 3B is worth the same as 2B. If Rendon is a better 3B than 2B, it's worth more to the team to have him at 3B.

Zimmerman would be worth 1.5 wins less at 1B than 3B based on positional adjustment, but I personally think it's getting to the point we going to lose 1.5 wins a season by having him play 3B rather than 1B anyways, unless he corrects his throwing hugely.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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HS,

He already showed the math why that's not true unless he's a top 10 slugger.

Offline NJ Ave

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For arguments sake, please address this and give me a win difference attributable to all these aspects. I'll give you my estimates in parentheses.

1. Danny's defense vs. Rendon's at 2B (+1 Danny)
2. Rendon's defense vs. Zimmerman's at 3B (+1 Rendon)
3. Zimmerman's defense vs. LaRoche's at 1B (even)
4. Danny's bat vs. LaRoche's bat (+1.5 LaRoche)

So a total of half a win more with a Zim, Espy, Desmond, Rendon infield rather than LaRoche, Rendon, Desmond, Zim.

Online HalfSmokes

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I'll go with your numbers until you get to '4. Danny's bat vs. LaRoche's bat (+1.5 LaRoche)' If you want to use this terrible laroche season, be fair and use this danny season (.785 OPS v .468) or use career numbers (.773 v. 698), either way, that difference is probably a couple of wins (maybe I'm too stupid to find it, but I don't think there is a direct delta OPS to wins correlation)

Offline TigerFan

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For arguments sake, please address this and give me a win difference attributable to all these aspects. I'll give you my estimates in parentheses.

1. Danny's defense vs. Rendon's at 2B (+1 Danny)
2. Rendon's defense vs. Zimmerman's at 3B (+1 Rendon)
3. Zimmerman's defense vs. LaRoche's at 1B (even)
4. Danny's bat vs. LaRoche's bat (+1.5 LaRoche)

So a total of half a win more with a Zim, Espy, Desmond, Rendon infield rather than LaRoche, Rendon, Desmond, Zim.

I would have Danny's defense is better than +1 over Rendon. 
I also think ALR is a much better 1b than Zim mainly due to the experience. 
Are you talking Danny's bat recently?  If so ALR far superior. 

Offline imref

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I would have Danny's defense is better than +1 over Rendon. 
I also think ALR is a much better 1b than Zim mainly due to the experience. 
Are you talking Danny's bat recently?  If so ALR far superior. 

ALR gets a point for being LH as well, more natural for 1B.

Offline NJ Ave

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A win is 10 runs.

LaRoche has played roughly 8 full seasons, and has created 76 runs of offense with his bat. That's 9.5 runs a year, on average. This year, he's produced under 5 batting runs.

In 2011, Espinosa produced 2.5 batting runs. Last year, even with the post injury slide, he was worth -4.4 runs.

I think 1.5 wins is actually pretty generous if we're talking about a healthy Espinosa. LaRoche has never produced more than 21 batting runs in a season, so if you're saying there's like a 3 win difference between his bat and Espinosa's, you're basically assuming a career year from LaRoche and a one-shouldered Espinosa.

Offline mimontero88

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I'll go with your numbers until you get to '4. Danny's bat vs. LaRoche's bat (+1.5 LaRoche)' If you want to use this terrible laroche season, be fair and use this danny season (.785 OPS v .468) or use career numbers (.773 v. 698), either way, that difference is probably a couple of wins (maybe I'm too stupid to find it, but I don't think there is a direct delta OPS to wins correlation)
How is it fair to compare an injured player's numbers to a healthy player's numbers?  That seems like the epitome of unfair.

Online HalfSmokes

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How is it fair to compare an injured player's numbers to a healthy player's numbers?  That seems like the epitome of unfair.

that's why I also used career numbers- how fair is it to use a career year vs. first half for a player who had a dreadful first month?