Author Topic: Justin Upton traded to ATL (For real!)  (Read 1804 times)

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Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Justin Upton traded to ATL (For real!)
« Reply #75: January 25, 2013, 11:55:50 AM »
They have gotten marginally younger for the next three years, I admit. But it's not like Prado and Bourn made them an old team, or like the Uptons are so young and cheap ($28 million total for the next three years)

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Justin Upton traded to ATL (For real!)
« Reply #76: January 25, 2013, 12:00:37 PM »
Unless Boras really botched it, Bourn is about to get a lot more expensive. I just think the Uptons have a greater range of outcomes (granted Prado is incredibly variable too) both better and worse

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Justin Upton traded to ATL (For real!)
« Reply #77: January 25, 2013, 12:29:21 PM »
Prado would look actually very stable without a huge outlier in BABIP in 2011.

2009: .307/.358/.464 .331 BABIP
2010: .307/.350/.459 .335 BABIP
2012: .301/.359/.438 .322 BABIP

2011: .260/.302/.385 .266 BABIP

If you normalize that BABIP to .310, the rest of his 2011 numbers fall right in line with the other 3 years.

And you think that Bourn is going to get "a lot more expensive" than the 5/$75 they paid for BJ Upton? That would be some Boras magic. I think he might be lucky to get the Upton contract at this point.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Justin Upton traded to ATL (For real!)
« Reply #78: January 25, 2013, 12:36:06 PM »
I think Boras blew it, but I think Bourn will get more expensive (I also think Prado has the Dback over a barrel if they made this trade with a quick extension in mind)

Online Kevrock

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Re: Justin Upton traded to ATL (For real!)
« Reply #79: January 25, 2013, 12:38:14 PM »
It's a wonder Upton has been inconsistent when his GM and owner talk trash about him at every opportunity.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Justin Upton traded to ATL (For real!)
« Reply #80: January 25, 2013, 12:40:03 PM »
I bet you the AAV for Bourn + Prado < AAV for the Uptons over the next 3 years.

Basically, Bourn isn't getting more than Upton (Heyman, who is Boras' mouthpiece, basically admitted that Boras was only looking to replicate Upton's contract for Bourn at this point). That means Prado, who's going to get about $7 million this year, would need to get $32 million over the next two years to equal what the Braves are going to pay Justin Upton (3/$39 left).

Prado's not getting that.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Justin Upton traded to ATL (For real!)
« Reply #81: January 25, 2013, 12:43:01 PM »
I think you're correct on that, but both Bourn and Prado will be getting more expensive

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Justin Upton traded to ATL (For real!)
« Reply #82: January 25, 2013, 12:49:53 PM »
Not more expensive than the guys who are replacing them, who (a) haven't been as valuable in two of the last three years, and (b) have been significantly less valuable over the course of the past three years.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Justin Upton traded to ATL (For real!)
« Reply #83: January 25, 2013, 01:09:58 PM »
more expensive than the braves outfield was last year (by a significant margin)

Offline Rasta

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Re: Justin Upton traded to ATL (For real!)
« Reply #84: January 25, 2013, 01:14:35 PM »
The interesting part to watch next year IF the Braves make no other major additions is if Bourn/Prado/Chipper are better than Upton/Upton/3B platoon. 

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Justin Upton traded to ATL (For real!)
« Reply #85: January 25, 2013, 01:22:10 PM »
more expensive than the braves outfield was last year (by a significant margin)

I mean, what is your argument here? The Braves OF is going to be more expensive than it was last year anyways (by a $20 million margin).

Your point is?

Offline The Chief

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Re: Justin Upton traded to ATL (For real!)
« Reply #86: January 28, 2013, 12:49:50 PM »