As far as Zimmerman goes, I may be mis-remembering the draft, but I thought he was supposed to be the can't miss almost ready guy with the lower (relatively) ceiling.
That's my point, kind of. How long do we hold onto how high their ceilings "should" be? Past the point where Zimmerman has put up multiple better seasons than either of the Upton brothers? BJ is on the wrong side of the production curve and Justin is basically at its peak. Besides the early expectations, what's the reasonable basis for expecting vast improvement from either of them, to the point where Justin [16.7 WAR the past 4 years] is THAT much better an option than Martin Prado [15 WAR the previous 4 seasons].
Justin Upton kind of reminds me of JD Drew (caution - breaking the "only compare race to race" rule). Does ANYONE remember that JD Drew was a pretty good player, or do they continue to think of "unrealized potential" with him?
47.5 career WAR. Career .278/.384/.489 line. Very good defensively (+8 wins career). Above average baserunner. 5 4+ win seasons.
But instead of 4-5 wins being his "expected level" of production, everyone held him to an impossible standard his entire career because of his scouting report and because he reached it one time (a ridiculous 9 win season in Atlanta).