Author Topic: Ian Desmond: Breakout player or one year wonder?  (Read 1304 times)

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Offline nobleisthyname

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His line drive rate was the same

Face it, all the stats we have point to last year being a fluke.

The power doesn't appear to be a fluke.

Offline Tyler Durden

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A .750 OPS would probably put him in the top 10 or so SS in baseball.  Probably top 5 in the NL.  If he could do that and steal 20-25 bases and play solid defense, he's a solid contributor. 

Offline Lintyfresh85

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It's also about 100 points lower in OPS than his 2012 season.

Online Slateman

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The power doesn't appear to be a fluke.

Power is probably the flukiest thing of all. He's never shown it before. Not even in the minors.

Desmond is suspect until he shows he can do it again. I see him as more .270-.275 with 15 homers

Offline Tyler Durden

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It's also about 100 points lower in OPS than his 2012 season.

That's true.  But it would still be better than what most teams get at SS.  Having a shortstop who can hit like a first baseman isn't that common.

Offline Tyler Durden

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Power is probably the flukiest thing of all. He's never shown it before. Not even in the minors.

Desmond is suspect until he shows he can do it again. I see him as more .270-.275 with 15 homers

If the Nats get this from both Desmond and Espinosa, they'll be fine.  Any more than this is a bonus.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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I'm not sure why people keep expecting Espinosa to be a .270 hitter. That's just not his game. He's valuable as is, no need to really fix anything. He could always improve on his K rate but he's a solid player as is.

Food for thought. Espinosa's WAR in 2012 (3.8) was more than Desmond's 2009-2011 seasons combined (3.1).

Having said all that... I think Desmond can put close to an .800 OPS in 2013 and Espinosa around .730.

Offline HalfSmokes

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I'm not sure why people keep expecting Espinosa to ...

.067/.176/.067 - I don't expect him to be a high average hitter, but he's too streaky- when he's hot he's great, but when he gets into a funk, it lasts too long, and in a short series, it kills (not that the rest of the team was that much better)

Offline PebbleBall

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in 2011 the team as a whole went from a BABIP of .280 inn the first half to .307 in the second (2012 saw a similar jump in the second half)- I wonder if schedule or injuries/fatigue to opposing fielders plays a role 

DC August?  It seems like the ball was exploding off the bats late this past summer.

Offline hammondsnats

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desmond is a better player than espinosa.  espy needs to get his bat going this year.  the front office will tell you the same thing.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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desmond is a better player than espinosa.  espy needs to get his bat going this year.  the front office will tell you the same thing.

Desmond could have been crap last year like every other year of his entire career and you'd still say the same thing.

And, 8)

Offline Lintyfresh85

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.067/.176/.067 - I don't expect him to be a high average hitter, but he's too streaky- when he's hot he's great, but when he gets into a funk, it lasts too long, and in a short series, it kills (not that the rest of the team was that much better)

Which is why the Lombo platoon for specific situations makes sense... but will never be seen. Lombo is never going to be the player Espinosa is, (doesn't walk, doesn't hit for power, doesn't play exceptional defense anywhere) but in certain situations he fits the needs better, such as have to get the ball in-play with less than two outs. Too bad you can't situationally pinch hit Lombo for Espy but then have Espy stay in the game. That would be perfect.

Offline PebbleBall

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I don't think his BABIP increase in the 2d half of last year can be explained by an increased line drive rate.  The splits above show his 1st half LD rate was the same as his 2d half (17.9%) but there was a huge increase in BABIP in the 2d half (and a .035 decrease in ISO).  2011 his LD rate was 17.5%.  he had an increase in FB rate in 2012, which you would think would lead to a decrease in BABIP.

Even with a decrease from 2012, could he see a sustained increase from his prior career average?

EDIT: This is probably too much focus on BABIP anyway

Offline hammondsnats

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Desmond could have been crap last year like every other year of his entire career and you'd still say the same thing.

And, 8)

no if you recall i said before last year desmond would need to have a good year to right the ship and that i was losing patience.  go look.

you haven't said that about espinosa 8)

Offline Lintyfresh85

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no if you recall i said before last year desmond would need to have a good year to right the ship and that i was losing patience.  go look.

you haven't said that about espinosa 8)

Sure have. As you say, go look.

Online Slateman

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Which is why the Lombo platoon for specific situations makes sense... but will never be seen. Lombo is never going to be the player Espinosa is, (doesn't walk, doesn't hit for power, doesn't play exceptional defense anywhere) but in certain situations he fits the needs better, such as have to get the ball in-play with less than two outs. Too bad you can't situationally pinch hit Lombo for Espy but then have Espy stay in the game. That would be perfect.

You could have Lombo start the game and bring in Espinosa

Offline PebbleBall

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no if you recall i said before last year desmond would need to have a good year to right the ship and that i was losing patience.  go look.

you haven't said that about espinosa 8)

Sure have. As you say, go look.

Quote from: Lintyfresh85, 36 minutes earlier...
He's valuable as is, no need to really fix anything. He could always improve on his K rate but he's a solid player as is.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Odd, I wasn't aware this thread was my only comments on Espinosa.

And I stand by that statement. Espinosa as is, is a useful MLB player. But to say those are my only comments on what he needs to improve on is clearly misleading on your part, and likely intentional.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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You could have Lombo start the game and bring in Espinosa

It's not good practice to give the inferior of the two players the lion's share of playing time.

Offline PebbleBall

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Odd, I wasn't aware this thread was my only comments on Espinosa.

And I stand by that statement. Espinosa as is, is a useful MLB player. But to say those are my only comments on what he needs to improve on is clearly misleading on your part, and likely intentional.

I just looked at my previous post again and realized no rebuttal is necessary. 

Offline Lintyfresh85

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I just looked at my previous post again and realized no rebuttal is necessary. 

Once again, misleading and intentionally so.

:thumbs:

Offline PebbleBall

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I'm not sure I understand what you're defending.  If you're saying it's misleading because you've said he has both "no need to really fix anything" and that you've explained "what he needs to improve,"  fine.  You've said both, I admit it. 

Online Smithian

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His line drive rate was the same

Face it, all the stats we have point to last year being a fluke.
Other than his high level of testicular fortitude. Can't measure that. That's freaking Natitude.

Offline hammondsnats

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Offline imref

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Other than his high level of testicular fortitude. Can't measure that. That's freaking Natitude.

does he get some sort of credit for also leading the SF 49rs to the super bowl under an alias?