Author Topic: MLB & Division Watching (2013)  (Read 39232 times)

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Offline NJ Ave

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2013)
« Reply #50: February 20, 2013, 02:17:38 PM »
Carp to Boston makes some sense.  I think the Carp fans look at his ISO in AAA going from .174 to .259 to .307 with a 10% walk rate from 2009 - 2011 (age 23 - 25) and think that if you can get him to a fair ballpark, the power can emerge.  He clearly took a step back last year, but his 2011 in the majors was above average.  He does have reverse splits in the majors, but I don't know (haven't pulled) his minor league splits.   Boston clearly wants to see if he can beat out Nava and/ or Overbay as a lefty bat to pair with Gomes and Napoli.  This made a bit more sense before Overbay was signed.  It is just cash, so why not?

This argument feels strained to me.

1. These ISOs were put up in 3 straight years at AAA as a 23, 24, and 25 year old.
2. The .307 ISO was put up in a half season.
3. It's misleading to say he had a consistent 10% walk rate. In the last 4 years, his walk rate in BB/PA declined from 14% (AA, 2008) to 12% (AAA, 2009) to 9% (AAA, 2010) before leveling off at 10% (AAA, 2011). So I guess it shows that in the minors, he may be leveling off at a reasonable walk rate (but not outstanding or anything). It certainly doesn't mean that he's going to have a good walk rate in the majors.
4. It's nothing special to produce more power in the minors if you're replaying levels and sacrificing patience.
5. His 2011 MLB numbers ARE kind of a crappy Mike Morse, but were also built up by a 120-point reverse split. As I said, in the end what do you do with a LHB who can't hit RHP?

I guess I just remember when the Red Sox acquired better players than this.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2013)
« Reply #51: February 20, 2013, 02:20:54 PM »
Oh, and I guess there's no reason why not for the Red Sox. I'm really talking more about some of the Mariners folks who seem to think they'll regret letting Carp go. I think there's almost zero chance of that, like if we traded Roger Bernadina or something like that.

As far as the Red Sox go, I just find it strange to see them picking up guys whose ceiling is second division starter.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2013)
« Reply #52: February 20, 2013, 03:14:25 PM »
The Red Sox are more or less looking for insurance against really cruddy numbers v. RHP by gomes and napoli.  Carp is one of the insurance policies.  He does not even have to be above average v. RHP to be a useful part-timer. He has to beat out Nava and / or Overbay, and he's only going to get 350 PAs v. RHP.   

At this point, 2011 AAA looks like the aberration, but when he came up, he was still a .345 wOBA guy.  He's a career .319 wOBA in MLB away from Seattle, and a career .321 wOBA v. RHP.  Close to average, maybe not even average for a corner guy.

This looks more like a nice potential dumpster dive, see what he has, type of move.  Doesn't cost prospects, doesn't block guys.  The reverse split is not helpful, but an average wOBA v. righties could be useful.  I think we are in basic agreement that it is a stretch to think that this guy should have gotten much more back for Seattle.

As for the 10%, all I claimed was that the AAA walk rates were fairly steady, around 10%, rather than bouncing around.  OK, not spectacular. 

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2013)
« Reply #53: February 20, 2013, 03:31:22 PM »
I'm not necessarily disagreeing with any of your points. What I am saying is that while any of the moves in particular might be defensible, they're awful in aggregate.

The Red Sox - formerly one of the most astute organizations in baseball - are now signing second division backups to protect themselves against the possible poor performance of OTHER second division starters they have signed...THIS OFFSEASON.

Pitiful.

From the outside, it looks like there's no overall strategy there. Why not just give LaRoche his third year? Why spend so many roster spots trying to reproduce LaRoche's numbers?

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2013)
« Reply #54: February 24, 2013, 08:09:57 PM »
Granderson out for 10 weeks. JA Happ hit him in the forearm and fractured it.

This brings out a spring training strategy.  Using marginal pitchers who are unlikely to be in your rotation to hit hitters from your rivals in order to knock them out.  I knew Toronto was serious about contending, but this is a bit vicious.

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2013)
« Reply #55: February 26, 2013, 01:48:30 PM »
http://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/sports/2013/02/7987921/madoff-ravaged-mets-enter-stadium-deal-amway

Got the above link via the Hardball Talk blog.

The NL East is home to some of the worst of the worst in terms of ownership groups.  Amway will have a store, its first ever in the US, at CitiField.  LOL.  Madoff and Amway.  The Wilpons know how to pick 'em.  And throw Citi in there too as another terrible choice.  Maybe Kim Jong Il should have ponied up some money to sponsor something having to do with the Mets.  The Wilpons will take anyone's money.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2013)
« Reply #56: February 27, 2013, 08:32:21 AM »
Moved posts about Loria's defense of the Blue jays trade and breaking up the team to the thread on Marlins Trade Franchise to Toronto.

Offline sportsfan882

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2013)
« Reply #57: February 28, 2013, 08:20:39 PM »
“@Jim_Duquette: Jonathan Papelbon, Phillies Closer, told us this year's Phillies team reminds him of the 2007 Red Sox that won the World Series”

Offline tomterp

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2013)
« Reply #58: February 28, 2013, 08:48:16 PM »
“@Jim_Duquette: Jonathan Papelbon, Phillies Closer, told us this year's Phillies team reminds him of the 2007 Red Sox that won the World Series”

 :lmao:

Offline spidernat

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2013)
« Reply #59: February 28, 2013, 08:54:22 PM »


He can forget about winning the WS. The title will be won by the sawks from here to eternity.

Offline KnorrForYourMoney

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2013)
« Reply #60: February 28, 2013, 09:01:42 PM »
“@Jim_Duquette: Jonathan Papelbon, Phillies Closer, told us this year's Phillies team reminds him of the 2007 Red Sox that won the World Series”



Offline imref

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2013)
« Reply #61: March 04, 2013, 08:29:48 AM »
Matt Garza to start the season on the DL, Furcal may be out too.

Now if only the rest of the Cardinals can get hurt before the season starts.....

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2013)
« Reply #62: March 05, 2013, 08:12:41 AM »
Another attempted kidnapping in Venezuela.  this time, it was the family of Brayan Villareal, a reliever on the tigers.

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=25664413&topic_id=41332114

Offline imref

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2013)
« Reply #63: March 06, 2013, 08:38:49 PM »
Mark Texiera to miss 8-10 weeks with a sprained wrist.  Yankees are desperately seeking corner IF help.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2013)
« Reply #64: March 07, 2013, 08:34:44 AM »
Chad Tracy? 

If RZ gets hurt, call up Rendon.  If ALR gets hurt, Moore / Marrero / Rendon could cover.  Micah Owings could be the PH and give us a little extra length in the bullpen.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2013)
« Reply #65: March 07, 2013, 08:36:39 AM »
Chad Tracy? 

If RZ gets hurt, call up Rendon.  If ALR gets hurt, Moore / Marrero / Rendon could cover.  Micah Owings could be the PH and give us a little extra length in the bullpen.

I'd do it if we get a piece that upgrades the bullpen this year, otherwise 1) yankee prospects are over rated and more importantly 2) this is the year the team seems all in- trading a competent backup for an injury prone starter and only getting a prospect makes no sense

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2013)
« Reply #66: March 07, 2013, 09:31:09 AM »
Not an MLB player, but he was a top prospect at one time before his brain surgeries forced his retirement:

Quote
Outfielder Ryan Westmoreland, a Rhode Island native once considered the top prospect in the Red Sox organization, ended his comeback from two brain surgeries and announced his retirement Wednesday.

Westmoreland, who will turn 23 next month, underwent surgery in March 2010 to correct an abnormal growth of blood vessels in his brain. He had similar surgery last July.

Westmoreland continued working out at team facilities for several years despite the long odds that he ever would return to a competitive level. He made what was considered remarkable progress after the first surgery, but the second procedure left him unable to play.

“With a clear mind and heart, as well as the unwavering support and friendship of my family, friends, agent[ s], doctors, therapists, and the Boston Red Sox, I have decided to voluntarily retire as a professional baseball player,” Westmoreland wrote in an e-mail.

“Although it is a very difficult decision for me, it has become clear that the neurological damage caused by the most recent cavernous malformation and surgery leaves me with physical challenges that make it impossible to play the game at such a high level.

“In my heart, I know that I have worked as hard as one possibly could to overcome the obstacles presented by this unfortunate series of events. It is with that confidence that I am comfortable turning the page.”




Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2013)
« Reply #67: March 07, 2013, 11:23:14 AM »
Hope the Red Sox hook him up with a Coaching/FO/Scouting job if he so chooses that field.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2013)
« Reply #68: March 07, 2013, 02:29:59 PM »
I hope his vision is OK and that his cognitive functions allow him to be a student and able to use his Vandy-level smarts.   Even after his first surgery, I don't think his speach bounced all the way back.

It isn't so much discussed now, but the 1990 Americans with Disabilities Act is one the great pieces of social legislation. you take the legal right to reasonable accommodations, some architectural changes like ramps, curb cuts, and more use of braille in office equipment and buildings, and couple that with the opportunities for new products like motorized chairs and speach synthesizers, and the ADA unlocked a huge improvement in quality of life and a resource for the economy.

Offline blue911

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2013)
« Reply #69: March 08, 2013, 06:44:10 PM »
Wade Davis to skip a start with " Shoulder Soreness".


Wish I had invested in pitchfork futures

Offline blue911

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2013)
« Reply #70: March 11, 2013, 01:34:09 PM »
Zack Greinke sent back to LA to have elbow examined.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2013)
« Reply #71: March 11, 2013, 01:48:01 PM »
That was fast

Offline houston-nat

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2013)
« Reply #72: March 11, 2013, 01:52:41 PM »
Zack Greinke sent back to LA to have elbow examined.
oh crap

Offline blue911

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2013)
« Reply #73: March 11, 2013, 01:54:38 PM »
oh crap

Mattingly said he had a MRI that came back clean. It didn't say when the MRI was taken.

Offline imref

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2013)
« Reply #74: March 11, 2013, 03:09:57 PM »
Mattingly said he had a MRI that came back clean. It didn't say when the MRI was taken.

i heard it discussed on MLB earlier, they said the MRI was clean but Greinke wanted to "make sure" everything was OK.