Author Topic: Top 15 Prospects - FanGraphs  (Read 1192 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline houston-nat

  • Posts: 16373
Top 15 Prospects - FanGraphs
« Topic Start: December 07, 2012, 12:17:30 PM »
Seriously in-depth stuff.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/washington-nationals-top-15-prospects-2012-13/

Consider their #1 ranking for Brian Goodwin:

Quote
Goodwin, 22, flashed a lot of potential during his amateur career but it’s taken some time for his tools to start clicking on the field. The former 34th-overall selection spent 2012 playing at two levels and completely dominated A-ball before skipping over high-A for double-A where he struggled.

A talent evaluator I spoke with wasn’t worried about the outfielder’s difficulties in double-A. “He’s got a very, very interesting ceiling. [Goodwin] hits for average, power and has defensive skills,” he said. “He’s a wonderful young man… the make-up matches the ability. He’s very coachable, and a quick learner.” The contact added that Goodwin is also energetic and a hard worker. “His disposition is always the same whether he goes 4-for-4 or 0-for-4.”

Goodwin has a simply, short, quick swing with leverage. His approach is gap-to-gap but he has the power to punish a mistake. Both a scout and the talent evaluator agreed on that assessment of the prospect’s approach. The scout said, “He has chance to hit 15-20 homers down the line as he learns to lift the ball and establishes himself.” I’m also told that he’s learning to become a more effective bunter. In the field, Goodwin has a chance to be an above-average defender in center field with a solid-average arm. The scout I spoke with comped the prospect to Michael Bourn with more power in his prime. The scout suggested a 65-70 on Goodwin’s speed tool with the capability to steal 20-25 bases a season.

Goodwin will likely return to double-A to begin 2013 and will look to curb his strikeout rate, which jumped up to 27% from 14.7% with his promotion from A-ball. If everything clicks, he could be ready for the majors late in the season with 2014 being a more likely timeline. With the addition of center-fielder Denard Span from the Twins, the presence of superstar-in-the-making Bryce Harper and the contract commitment to Jayson Werth (through 2017), there is no need to rush Goodwin’s development.


Also, apparently Sammy Solis is keeping himself "in tremendous shape," the Nationals have no plans to move Rendon off 3B, and
Quote
the organization preaches aggressiveness, not passiveness. “It can be a detriment to try and change a young hitter’s natural aggressiveness,” the contact said. “[Eury Perez] has a clear understanding of what he has to do to be successful.”

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 24450
Re: Top 15 Prospects - FanGraphs
« Reply #1: December 07, 2012, 12:59:57 PM »
Well, they're wrong. Rendon is clearly ahead of Goodwin. The AFL and Double A showed that. Skole doesn't play third anymore. Perez is ranked too high.

Offline houston-nat

  • Posts: 16373
Re: Top 15 Prospects - FanGraphs
« Reply #2: December 07, 2012, 01:06:00 PM »
Skole doesn't play third anymore.
But he says that.

"The contact I spoke with said the Georgia native has made “incredible strides this year at third base” and has good hands and a strong arm but admitted Skole may never have great range. The prospect has gotten a lot of experience at first base lately, playing the position in both the fall instructional league and the Arizona Fall League in an effort to increase his versatility and possibly open up a direct route to the majors. “He has a chance to be a very good (fielding) first baseman,” the contact stated."

Offline NJ Ave

  • Posts: 1360
Re: Top 15 Prospects - FanGraphs
« Reply #3: December 07, 2012, 01:07:41 PM »
It depends on how much you're valuing ceiling vs. probability of reaching that ceiling, in my opinion.

I think it's definitely arguable that Goodwin's ceiling is higher than Rendon's. If you see Rendon only as a 20 HR guy, you might only project him as a David Freese type 3B (.293/.372/.467 this year) which is definitely valuable but not as big a deal as Goodwin if you think Goodwin is a similarly valuable hitter but as a plus-fielding CF.

Offline Glockypoo

  • Posts: 733
Re: Top 15 Prospects - FanGraphs
« Reply #4: December 07, 2012, 01:16:13 PM »
They're still fairly high on Ray.

It'll be interesting to see how he does repeating Potomac.

Offline NJ Ave

  • Posts: 1360
Re: Top 15 Prospects - FanGraphs
« Reply #5: December 07, 2012, 01:23:25 PM »
We've gotten a bit spoiled in this franchise with a number of players who took steady routes to stardom (or "everyday playerdom") without major detours. Strasburg, Zimmerman, Zimmermann, Espinosa, Storen, Harper, Clippard after the trade, maybe others I can't think of. Besides injuries, those guys just kind of chugged along to their peaks (or are in the process of doing so currently).

But I think it's just as common for talented players to kind of zig and zag their way along - kind of like Desmond, Detwiler, maybe even Stammen. So it wouldn't surprise me at all if Ray or Hood took a major step forward this year, or if Skole or Goodwin took a step sideways. It's not supposed to work as smoothly as it has for the Nationals over the past 4 years or so.

Offline nobleisthyname

  • Posts: 2124
Re: Top 15 Prospects - FanGraphs
« Reply #6: December 07, 2012, 01:46:27 PM »
The farm system really seems empty now which I suppose is to be expected after trades and early promotions. With our team being so young it shouldn't be that much of an issue but hopefully Rizzo works as hard at restocking it as he did when he first took over.

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 24450
Re: Top 15 Prospects - FanGraphs
« Reply #7: December 07, 2012, 01:53:55 PM »
It depends on how much you're valuing ceiling vs. probability of reaching that ceiling, in my opinion.

I think it's definitely arguable that Goodwin's ceiling is higher than Rendon's. If you see Rendon only as a 20 HR guy, you might only project him as a David Freese type 3B (.293/.372/.467 this year) which is definitely valuable but not as big a deal as Goodwin if you think Goodwin is a similarly valuable hitter but as a plus-fielding CF.

I project Rendon as Edgar Martinez and Goodwin as Curtis Granderson with 25 homers instead of 40+ (2008 Tigers type season)

Offline NJ Ave

  • Posts: 1360
Re: Top 15 Prospects - FanGraphs
« Reply #8: December 07, 2012, 02:47:49 PM »
I project Rendon as Edgar Martinez and Goodwin as Curtis Granderson with 25 homers instead of 40+ (2008 Tigers type season)
You're kind of making my point for me.

Edgar Martinez' top two seasons by WAR: 7.5, 6.5
Curtis Granderson's top two seasons by WAR: 7.8, 7.0

The other tools are meaningful.

However, I agree this is an open debate. Prospect rankings are kind of silly.

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 24450
Re: Top 15 Prospects - FanGraphs
« Reply #9: December 07, 2012, 02:53:14 PM »
You're kind of making my point for me.

Edgar Martinez' top two seasons by WAR: 7.5, 6.5
Curtis Granderson's top two seasons by WAR: 7.8, 7.0

The other tools are meaningful.

However, I agree this is an open debate. Prospect rankings are kind of silly.

Martinez did it with his bat alone. Granderson was helped by defense.

Martinez's hitting > Granderson's hitting

Rendon at third (or second, or first) with Martinez type hitting is easily a 8-10 WAR player.

Offline NJ Ave

  • Posts: 1360
Re: Top 15 Prospects - FanGraphs
« Reply #10: December 07, 2012, 02:58:24 PM »
Rendon at third (or second, or first) with Martinez type hitting is easily a 8-10 WAR player.

This is a pretty hilarious statement to make. We should probably just send his uniform to the Hall of Fame now.

My point was that it's not ludicrous to rank Goodwin above Rendon if you believe that (Goodwin's defense + running) > Rendon's batting advantage.

Of course Edgar Martinez was a better hitter than Curtis Granderson. Rendon is likely a better hitter than Goodwin. Miguel Cabrera is a better hitter than Mike Trout.

That is not the end of value.

Offline imref

  • Posts: 17591
  • Like my arm slot?
Re: Top 15 Prospects - FanGraphs
« Reply #11: December 07, 2012, 02:59:48 PM »
it looks like we're going to have to trade Skole or Rendon at some point, but are needs are so few that maybe we turn them into A-AA prospects that are 2-3 years away.

Offline HalfSmokes

  • Posts: 15114
Re: Top 15 Prospects - FanGraphs
« Reply #12: December 07, 2012, 04:08:54 PM »
that list gets ugly fast - Solis at 5 and Perez at 6- hopefully the farm gets restocked, also Purke out of the top 15?

Offline zimm_da_kid

  • Posts: 6266
  • Sign all the Cubans
Re: Top 15 Prospects - FanGraphs
« Reply #13: December 07, 2012, 04:10:09 PM »
If you see Rendon only as a 20 HR guy, you might only project him as a David Freese type 3B (.293/.372/.467 this year) which is definitely valuable but not as big a deal as Goodwin if you think Goodwin is a similarly valuable hitter but as a plus-fielding CF.

You could make an argument that quality 3Bs are harder to find than quality CFs.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 18081
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: Top 15 Prospects - FanGraphs
« Reply #14: December 07, 2012, 04:18:05 PM »
it looks like we're going to have to trade Skole or Rendon at some point, but are needs are so few that maybe we turn them into A-AA prospects that are 2-3 years away.
I could see Rendon at 2d and Skole / Moore at first, with Danny bringing back a stud pitcher if he figures things out.  We are not keeping everybody.

Offline Tyler Durden

  • Posts: 7971
  • Leprechaun
Re: Top 15 Prospects - FanGraphs
« Reply #15: December 07, 2012, 04:27:48 PM »
You could make an argument that quality 3Bs are harder to find than quality CFs.

Not for the Nats!

Offline zimm_da_kid

  • Posts: 6266
  • Sign all the Cubans
Re: Top 15 Prospects - FanGraphs
« Reply #16: December 07, 2012, 04:51:00 PM »

Offline Tyler Durden

  • Posts: 7971
  • Leprechaun
Re: Top 15 Prospects - FanGraphs
« Reply #17: December 07, 2012, 10:08:44 PM »
A couple years ago, the Royals were supposed to have the best farm system of all time.  Didn't really get them anywhere. 

The Nats farm system did its job in improving the big league club.  I wouldn't be all that surprised to see more prospects traded at midseason if the Nats need help.  World Series or bust!

Offline Rasta

  • Posts: 1058
Re: Top 15 Prospects - FanGraphs
« Reply #18: December 08, 2012, 08:29:43 PM »
A couple years ago, the Royals were supposed to have the best farm system of all time.  Didn't really get them anywhere. 

The Nats farm system did its job in improving the big league club.  I wouldn't be all that surprised to see more prospects traded at midseason if the Nats need help.  World Series or bust!

This.  With the talent on the major league roster, we don't need a loaded farm system at this moment.  Rizzo spent his time building it and then used it for the proper pieces of the puzzle. 

We needed a front line pitcher last year.  Rizzo went and got Gio.  There is a decent chance that Norris, Pea****, Milone & Cole never turn out to be anything special.  Prospects aren't guaranteed.  When you can get a proven major league talent, you've got to go out and do it when it's reasonable. 

Rizzo will spend the next 2-3 years rebuilding it.  He built the farm system into what it was before the trades and he can hopefully rebuild it. 

Our window is open.  Time to go for it. 

Offline Lintyfresh85

  • Posts: 33835
  • Next year, maybe?
Re: Top 15 Prospects - FanGraphs
« Reply #19: December 08, 2012, 08:33:50 PM »
Milone is a quality MLB starter already. Jury remains out on the other 3. Though Norris is already the A's starter behind the plate so he's close to locking up his spot as a full-time MLB'er.

Offline Rasta

  • Posts: 1058
Re: Top 15 Prospects - FanGraphs
« Reply #20: December 08, 2012, 08:34:17 PM »
Also, anything can happen in the next year or two.  Rendon could stay healthy and have a great year.  Goodwin could take the next step.  Solis may have a good year coming back from TJ.  Giolito may be a stud by the end of 2014.   There are a lot of question marks but also a lot of talent that could make this system really good again in a short period of time if things go the right way.  I trust Rizzo to do it.

Offline Rasta

  • Posts: 1058
Re: Top 15 Prospects - FanGraphs
« Reply #21: December 08, 2012, 08:38:38 PM »
Milone is a quality MLB starter already. Jury remains out on the other 3. Though Norris is already the A's starter behind the plate so he's close to locking up his spot as a full-time MLB'er.

I said they may not turn out to be special.  I never said they wouldn't be competent ML players. 

And I seriously question Milone being a quality pitcher outside of Oakland.  His ERA was in the high 4's IIRC.  Norris had a sub .300 OBP.  Could one of them become studs?  Sure.  They might also all turn out to be the definition of replacement level players.  That's the fun of following prospects. 

Offline HalfSmokes

  • Posts: 15114
Re: Top 15 Prospects - FanGraphs
« Reply #22: December 08, 2012, 08:38:39 PM »
At the this point I don't care about high end prospects, so much as arms who can fill in in the event of injury or ineffectiveness in the rotation or the pen,  and we're lacking there right now

Offline Lintyfresh85

  • Posts: 33835
  • Next year, maybe?
Re: Top 15 Prospects - FanGraphs
« Reply #23: December 08, 2012, 08:40:54 PM »
Milone had 13 wins with a 3.74 ERA. That's pretty solid if you ask me.

As for pitching in Oakland... You play where you play. You don't deserve an * because you play somewhere. Look at the total package. It was a good year.

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 24450
Re: Top 15 Prospects - FanGraphs
« Reply #24: December 08, 2012, 08:47:34 PM »
Milone had 13 wins with a 3.74 ERA. That's pretty solid if you ask me.

As for pitching in Oakland... You play where you play. You don't deserve an * because you play somewhere. Look at the total package. It was a good year.

He was aided vastly by that park.